Franz Wagner has been overlooked before. Despite intriguing size and mobility, a well-established two-way skill set and a competitive pedigree at Michigan, he fell to the Orlando Magic at No. 8 in the NBA Draft.
Wagner started 79 games as a rookie, averaging 15.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game but finished a somewhat distant fifth in the Rookie of the Year voting. He was even better in his second season, averaging similar box score stats but improving his shooting percentages across the board in 80 starts.
He followed up that strong season with special performances in the first two games of the FIBA World Cup this summer, totaling 32 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks in just 57 minutes before an ankle injury kept him out of the rest of the tournament.
In just two seasons, it seems like he has already hit his perceived draft floor as a high-level, hyper-efficient complementary player making two-way impact. But stardom feels more and more within his grasp and those who saw him as nothing more than a role player on draft night are looking like they might have missed the mark.
Shaky Franz Wagner draft-day takes: 3. "People love his team defense, but that's an odd thing to hang your hat on as a top-10 pick"
Gary Parrish of CBS gave the Magic a B- for selecting Wagner in the 2021 NBA Draft and seemed to be mostly focused on the lack of perceived upside:
"He's very young, so there's a lot of room to develop. He played two years of college basketball, and he was never a top-two player on his own team. People call him a shooter, but he never really made his 3-pointers that well. People love his team defense, but that's an odd thing to hang your hat on as a top-10 pick. He could definitely work out, but this is not what I would have done here."
Team defense might not be the flashiest skill but it's an important one and the Magic defense was better by 3.6 points per 100 possessions with Wagner on the floor last year. A versatile forward who takes nothing off the floor on defense unlocks all sort of other lineups and with his multi-faceted offensive game he helps everyone be the best version of himself.
Even with box score stats that aren't quite at star level, he's approaching that level of impact. Among players in their fourth season or less, Wagner was estimated to be the 12th-most impactful player in the league last season by 538's RAPTOR all-in-one metric. His team defense matters and not just because it's not the only way he's contributing.
Shaky Franz Wagner draft-day takes: 2. "He profiles as a high-level supporting player if all goes right"
Jeremy Woo of Sports Illustrated was slightly higher on the Wagner pick in his post-draft grades, giving the team a B but still focusing on his characteristics as a role player.
"After winding up with Jalen Suggs instead of Scottie Barnes at No. 5, the Magic still get a supersized, versatile forward here in Wagner. He's a highly versatile, smart player who's still scratching the surface of his ability, with room to grow as a jump shooter. Wagner is also a stellar team defender who understands positioning and covers ground effectively, and that flexibility should allow the Magic to play a variety of combinations when he's on the floor. He profiles as a high-level supporting player if all goes right. Despite not landing Scottie Barnes, Orlando should feel good about how the lottery broke."
To be fair, nothing Woo said is wrong. He just stopped short. Wagner was a high-level supporting player almost from the first few minutes of his rookie season. If everything goes right he's going to continue to develop and end up being a lot more than just a high-level supporting player.
Shaky Franz Wagner draft-day takes: 1. "Orlando likely understands it's not getting a star with Wagner"
At Bleacher Report, Zach Buckley gave the most depressing take I could find on the Wagner selection. He gave it a C+, recognizing his upside as a role player but dinging the Magic for playing it safe instead of swinging for a star.
"The Magic needed help on the wings, and Wagner offers the plug-and-play kind. But did they play it too safe given their lack of blue-chip talent? Orlando likely understands it's not getting a star with Wagner, who doesn't score a lot of style points and isn't a standout in any particular area. But his all-around skills pave such a clean path to glue-guy status that his representatives should be ironing out an endorsement agreement with Elmer's."
All three of these draft analysts hit on Wagner's potential as a role player, seeing the ways his size, shooting, complementary playmaking and defensive versatility could be of value. But no one was willing to imagine (publicly) the way his tools and high floor could eventually make him a star.
Last season, Wagner averaged 18.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.0 steals per game with a 58.9 true shooting percentage. He increased his shooting percentages across the board while simultaneously creating more offense for himself than he did during his rookie season. He's still not much of a threat in perimeter isolations but he can attack closeouts and averaged 10.0 drives per game and a respectable 0.671 points per drive. He ranked in the 58th percentile in scoring efficiency as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll — better than James Harden, Anthony Edwards, LeBron James or Jayson Tatum. He's also already very good at punishing small players in the post.
Wagner may never be an elite individual perimeter scorer or primary creator and initiator for the Magic but he has the potential to be a lot more than just a purely complementary scorer. With the diverse array of tools at his disposal, his unique size on the wing and his defensive upside Wagner could absolutely be a star.
