Absolutely, the numbers are stacked against the Houston Astros heading into the rest of the ALCS matchup against the Texas Rangers. After all, if history is any guide, 84 percent of teams that win the first two games of the series (like the Rangers have done) punch their ticket to the World Series.
However, if you're the Astros, you look at those numbers and cue Jim Carrey and his hope-filled soul when he says, "So you're telling me there's a chance."
So what can the Astros do to bounce back in this series? Here are three adjustments that the defending World Champions could make to get right back in the thick of things.
3. Houston Astros must embrace Arlington
Sure, Globe Life Field in the middle of the Metroplex is the home of the Rangers, but the Astros certainly felt comfortable playing there all season. going 6-1 in their seven games in Arlington. In four of those seven games, the Astros scored 12 or more runs, showing that the Houston offense feels very comfortable there.
In the first two games of the series, Houston's scoring was dominated by the long ball. However, if Houston can get its bats going and piece together some hits, the runs will come. And, if the runs come in Arlington, don't be surprised if some sense of deja vu starts creeping into the minds of the Rangers.
After all, in the very last meeting of the season between the two teams, Houston outscored Texas 39-10 in a three-game set in Arlington in early September.
While some things may have changed for the Rangers since then, expect the Astros to try to bring back those September memories to gain some momentum in Game 3.
2. Houston Astros need to go all in on Mad Max
Max Scherzer is scheduled to take the mound for Game 3 of the ALCS on Wednesday, marking his first time on the mound since a September 12 outing in Toronto where he suffered what was termed as a "right teres major muscle strain."
Scherzer has insisted he is fine and ready to go, and Texas manager Bruce Bochy is showing no hesitation in inserting him as the Game 3 starter. However, you never know exactly how a pitcher (even of Hall of Fame caliber like Scherzer) will respond after coming back from an injury.
Also, there is recent history with the Astros and Scherzer as Houston jumped on him for six hits and seven runs in just 3.0 innings on September 6. Taking the loss in that game, Scherzer lasted just 60 pitches, then handed it off to a bullpen that gave up five more runs in a 12-3 shellacking.
That is exactly what the Astros need to have happen in Game 3. If Houston can attack Scherzer in the same way it did just over a month ago and get into the Texas bullpen, it's a good sign for Houston.
1. Houston Astros' big bats need to put the ball in play
Outside of Yordan Alvarez, the Houston offense has done little to put any fear into Texas pitching so far this series. That includes Jose Altuve, who has yet to find his stride at the plate this postseason.
Heading into Game 3, Altuve is slashing just .160/.192/.280 and has a 42.0 percent chase rate, giving Texas pitchers the advantage by swinging at their offerings outside the strike zone.
Kyle Tucker, meanwhile, was 2-for-14 with six strikeouts in Houston's ALDS win over the Minnesota Twins. Against the Rangers in the ALCS, Tucker is 0-for-8 with a whiff. Put all of that together and one of Houston's big bats is 2-for-22 with seven strikeouts so far this postseason. That won't cut it.
Alvarez can't carry the Houston offense alone (contrary to what it looked like at times in Game 2 with his historic home run barrage), so the Astros have to figure out how to get other big names going at the plate. That effort starts with the Astros simply putting the bat on the ball and making Texas pitchers throw them strikes.
Coming back from an 0-2 deficit is hard enough. The Astros don't need to give Texas any advantages by swinging at bad pitches.
I will be in Arlington for Games 3 and 4 (and potentially Game 5) of the ALCS, so look for exclusive content from Globe Life Field here on Wednesday.
