The MLB trade deadline may still be weeks away, but the deliberations of what decisions to make in late July are already happening.
The MLB trade deadline officially hits on August 1st, and the rumors are going to start moving quickly long before that. While the deadline is still weeks away, front offices are already working hard to formulate strategies on what they hope to accomplish before that day hits. As usual, the trade deadline serves as the biggest opportunity teams have to fortify their rosters for the remainder of the year.
The Atlanta Braves, at first glance, don't need to do much. At 31-20, they stand atop their division by nearly 5 games while also holding the best record in the National League. The promises of what was expected from this team have, thus far, rung true.
But that's a dangerous mindset to adopt for the trade deadline. Now is not the time to build hubris. All too often teams that looked ready to win it all at the deadline got complacent, fail to make big moves, and find themselves out of it by early October. That should not be acceptable for Atlanta.
There's a flip side to that, too, though. Making a move simply for the sake of making a move isn't right either. It's got to be the right deal.
Ultimately, the Braves don't have to make a move, but they must be deliberating and making considerations about moving players and upgrading certain areas of the roster.
The ultimate goal for the Braves should be to acquire another strong starting pitcher. Spencer Strider and Max Fried have been great. Kyle Wright has been good, too. But Charlie Morton and Ian Anderson both have 4.00+ ERAs and a WHIP above 1.2. That pulls the Braves starting staff as a whole down to 18th in the majors in WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched). The Braves have continued to win, but will be even more intimidating if they can add another strong starter to the mix.
Perhaps even more important than deciding who to trade, though, is deciding who not to trade. For that reason, we'll close this one by looking at one player I think the Braves need to make sure they hold onto.
Let's jump in.
Players the Braves need to consider trading: Marcell Ozuna, DH/OF
Marcell Ozuna deserves a nod for everything he's done this year to pull back the yoke on a heavy-nosedive narrative surrounding his future with the team. There was a lot giving that nosedive thrust, including most importantly his on-field play but also unfortunately noise about his off-field behavior, too.
It would not have been a surprise to see Ozuna come into this year with his head hung, allowing his play to suffer with his attitude. Instead, he's been present and a fairly positive inclusion on the offensive end, with all three parts of his slash line pacing better than they did in 2022 or 2021.
His OPS is back up to .850 which, if it holds for the year, would only be bested by his 2017 and 2020. His 15.2% barrel rate is only bested by his 2020.
With all of that in mind, it could be tempting to look at Ozuna's 2023 thus far and think, "hey, maybe we should let this guy stick around after all?" In the end, that might be a fine conclusion to come to. Ozuna is not a major deadweight on the payroll for much longer if he regresses again (he's on the books for next year, but the Braves have a team option in 2025). But we're talking about players the Braves need to at least consider dealing.
Ozuna's reputation over the last three years has never been better. Any team looking for some power hitting in their lineup would be open to considering Ozuna if the deal is right. The baggage on him is far enough removed that the Braves could actually get something out of a player that once looked like the only solution to the problem was to give him the ol' DFA.
The Braves look genius for holding and can cap that narrative off with a trade that gets them a player back that doesn't leave such a bad aftertaste, even when he performs well.
Players the Braves need to consider trading: Travis d'Arnaud, C
The plan coming into the year after the Atlanta Braves traded for Sean Murphy was for Travis d'Arnaud to still be heavily involved in the plans.
The story from the team was that they would split catching duties and get plenty of designated hitter at-bats for both.
Here's how that has panned out so far:
Catcher at-bats, Braves 2023:
- Sean Murphy: 146
- Travis d'Arnaud: 60
Catcher innings, Braves 2023:
- Sean Murphy: 323
- Travis d'Arnaud: 85.2
I mean, it's not even close to a balance between the two. Part of the reason was discussed on the slide before this, Marcell Ozuna is actually filling the designated hitter role better than the Braves may have expected him to, which while good, creates inflexibility in the DH spot for talent-dense areas of the roster like at catcher.
So, it may ultimately depend on what happens with Ozuna, but considering trading d'Arnaud is in the picture. Remember, insiders tabbed that as a plausible outcome when the trade first went down:
The possible blockade there is the de facto call-up to serve as backup to Murphy if the team trades d'Arnaud would be Chadwick Tromp. He's not hitting well at AAA so there may be understandable trepidation there.
Still, d'Arnaud is a player worth at the very least, considering bringing up in trades, especially if it returns a major piece.
Players the Braves need to consider trading: Vaughn Grissom, SS
This will sting for some Braves fans to see the highly anticipated young shortstop on the list, but he might be one of the best pieces of trade bait Atlanta has to offer. For that reason, it would be bad business to not at least consider what moving the young shortstop would bring back.
That becomes even more logical when you consider the logjam the Braves have at shortstop — both now and in the future — and the fact that Grissom's defensive capabilities have put him on the outs of that discussion. Grissom has six errors in the field despite playing just 158 innings. Quickly, Braden Shewmake has emerged as the better of the two options for the future, though it's early and that race could certainly change.
Grissom is only 22 years old and there's an easy narrative that could be spun about how he could become a serviceable MLB player. He's young, has time to figure it out, could be repurposed as a second baseman, etc. All the things internal Grissom truthers have been saying about Grissom could immediately be peddled to other teams to try to convince them why they need to trade for him.
The ultimate question here is going to be about what other teams think of Grissom. Undoubtedly, he's a project, but he's one with team control and possibly a high-upside player. He may not pan out, but a team with confidence in what he brings might be willing to deal with Atlanta for him.
The great part about trading prospects is it only takes one team to see the value to get a deal moving.
Ultimately, this also comes down to Atlanta's front office's confidence in Grissom and how bullish they are that he could turn it around. So far, though, it looks as if Shewmake could answer all of those questions and then some, rendering Grissom a good piece to trade if the deal is right.
One player the Braves can't consider trading: Austin Riley
OK, there's a number of players I could have subbed in here that simply felt too obvious. The Braves obviously aren't trading their hot pitchers or Ronald Acuña Jr.
That leaves this mix of players that could be touchable if the price is really, really high (that we haven't already discussed in this article):
- Matt Olson
- Ozzie Albies
- Orlando Arcia
- Austin Riley
- Eddie Rosario
- Michael Harris II
Of that list, I think Austin Riley is the most important piece to hold onto for the Braves. Part of that is depth, there aren't immediate options to fill most of the infield spots, including third base.
The stronger reasoning, though, is that Riley is one of the most consistent players on the team. Let's consider the differential between batting averages and OPS among those players above in wins vs losses for the Braves this year:
- Matt Olson: -0.140; -0.558
- Ozzie Albies: -0.130; -0.382
- Orlando Arcia: -0.159; -0.646
- Austin Riley: -0.006; -0.237
- Eddie Rosario: -0.046; -.228
- Michael Harris II: +0.038; +0.181
Rosario and Riley are the two players who, looking at the simplified win/loss splits, tend to play most consistently regardless of the Braves' outcome.
Regardless of the fact that the Braves really can't afford to lose a third baseman right now anyway, Riley is that steady presence at the top of the lineup Atlanta can count on.
