Take a look at any sportsbook's World Series odds, and the Atlanta Braves are almost certain to be the favorites. Looking at statistical models, they're the favorites there, too. FanGraphs gives the Braves a whopping 28.6 percent chance of winning it all, the next-highest team is the Los Angeles Dodgers at 12.9 percent.
That doesn't mean the Braves are sure MLB season winners, though. They may have the easiest path and home field advantage, but they need to win 12 postseason games before they can get themselves another trophy for their closet.
With the regular season winding down, let's look at the three main reasons why the Braves will win it all, and one possible reason that could hold them back.
The Braves have star power
A softball reason here, but it's mighty hard to win in the postseason if you don't have one or several of the game's top players on your roster. The Braves have that in Ronald Acuna Jr, a likely MVP winner.
Not only that, but they also have Matt Olson, a 52-home-run hitter as of Thursday night, and three other players who have hit over 30 home runs this season so far. Three Braves are in the top-10 in the National League in home runs, and three are top-10 in WAR among position players.
Olson, Acuna, Riley and Albies are all stars, clear leaders of the team. They have the makings of a championship capable team.
Braves perform well offensively in leverage situations
The MLB postseason is when games get intense, and every pitch matters. How your players have been able to perform under pressure in the regular season is a great indicator of how they might perform in the postseason, because the leveraged situations will be far more frequent in October than any other time of the year.
The Braves do have one thing going against them: They have not played in many leveraged situations. Their 2,684 plate attempts in medium and high-leverage situations are the second-least in the MLB, in large part because the Braves have been runaways and kept themselves out of tight games most of the regular season.
Inexperience with obstacles like that won't be an issue. Why? See point one. They have star power that can turn on the intensity at any given moment.
When the Braves have been faced with medium or high leverage situations, though, they've performed well.
In medium and high leverage situations, the Braves have the best OPS of any team (.883). That's not from a small selection of big hits, as the Braves also have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in such situations, too.
On their heels are the Dodgers, who could be their only problem on the National League side of the bracket. The good news? The Dodgers are 10th-lowest in strikeout rate in such situations.
Home field advantage
Home field advantage is an obvious reason why a team might perform at a high level in the postseason, but one key team they needed to get home field over was the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Braves figure to be matched up against the Dodgers at some point this postseason, and that will be an intense travel schedule for the two teams going coast-to-coast.
That'll be a key opponent especially because the Dodgers have an .816 OPS against the current field of playoff teams, the Braves are second to that against the same opponents at .798 (the Braves beat them in slug, though).
Whichever team has the home field advantage may very well come out of that one alive. Advantage: Braves.
Of seven games against the Dodgers, the Braves have won four. Remarkably, three of those have come on the road.
The Championship series, the earliest the Braves can field the Dodgers, is a 2-3-2 format, where the Braves will get the first two and last two. That bodes well for the advantage team to get off to a hot start and also have three straight road games, which may give them the chance to better adjust to the road environment for the fourth and fifth game of the series.
Braves bane will be pitching, if anything
A caveat: I do think the Braves are winning the World Series. But if I'm, for the sake of argument, pulling out something they might struggle with, or a reason they would fall out of contention, it would be their starting pitching.
Looking at the ERAs of teams in medium and high-leverage situations, the Braves are bested by several playoff teams: the Blue Jays, Brewers, Astros, Rays, Orioles, Twins, Phillies, Rangers, and importantly, the Dodgers.
There's reason to be optimistic that it could be OK, though. Against solely the projected field of playoff teams, the Braves have the fourth-best ERA of any MLB team. The only playoff teams better are the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays, both on the opposite side of the bracket.
If Max Fried can keep healthy, all should be OK here. Fried has a 4.10 ERA in medium/high leverage situations, far better than Spencer Strider's 4.92 and Charlie Morton's 5.24. The only concern might be Fried's limited batters faced in such situations, with 164, whereas Strider and Morton have both faced above 385.
For comparison, though, the Dodgers aren't much better. Clayton Kershaw has a 3.39 ERA against batters in medium/high leverage situations, but Bobby Miller is at 5.34, and Lance Lynn is also a ghastly 5.84.
The Dodgers appear to be positioned to utilize openers, perhaps a tactic the Braves could also give a go at.
It seems, for both the Dodgers and the Braves, it might come down to the pitching. As it so often does in the postseason. If you can hit, you can win. The Braves can.
