NBA Free Agency is coming and teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Dallas Mavericks, and Philadelphia 76ers have plenty to lose.
NBA free agency is rapidly approaching. Negotiations with free agents can officially begin on June 30 but every team that's been eliminated from the playoffs is already plotting their next moves.
So, let's take a look ahead at the upcoming period. Three NBA teams have a lot to lose. They are attempting to compete for a title, but they could potentially lose at least one major piece this offseason.
Teams with the most to lose in NBA free agency: 3. Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks quietly have a lot to lose this offseason. Both Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez can become unrestricted free agents. Both players have been integral to the Bucks' success, but they are also risky bets to sign to a long-term deal.
Coming off a knee injury, Middleton had a rough season. He shot only 31.5 percent from 3, which was his lowest mark since his rookie season. His VORP of 0.6 was also his lowest since 2016-17. He did bounce back in the playoffs, averaging 23.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists.
Meanwhile, Lopez continued to be the ideal modern NBA center. During the season, he was the only NBA player to average 2.0+ blocks and shoot 37.4+ percent from 3. He will be the top free agent center on the market. However, he is 35 years old. How much longer can he perform at this level?
Will the Bucks show any hesitancy to sign either player to a long-term contract? If so, another team can swoop in and offer a better deal.
There is a chance that Milwaukee could lose a major contributor from their 2021 championship team this summer.
Teams with the most to lose in NBA free agency: 2. Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are in a tough spot. They have two legitimate superstars in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but they have very little depth and limited options to improve. Irving is set to hit unrestricted free agency this summer. According to Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus, Irving and the Mavericks have a "handshake deal".
"I hear they had a handshake deal before the trade [with the Brooklyn Nets]. And Kyrie wouldn't have said yes to anything less than the max."
However, if Irving decides to explore his options, the Mavericks' second-leading returning scorer could be Tim Hardaway Jr.
The logical landing spots for Irving (Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns) do not have the cap space to sign him, so they would have to agree to a sign-and-trade with the Mavericks. Subsequently, their worst-case scenario would be adding some depth in a returning package.
Still, losing him would significantly worsen their championship odds. In 2022-23, he was sensational on the court, averaging 27.1 points, 5.5 assists, and 5.1 rebounds.
Teams with the most to lose in NBA free agency: 1. Philadelphia 76ers
According to Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer, James Harden is expected to sign with the Houston Rockets in free agency.
If that comes to fruition, the Sixers will become one of the biggest losers of the offseason. During his time in Philadelphia, Harden altered his game to fit in with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. In 2022-23, the three-time scoring champion led the league in assists (10.7). His usage percentage of 25.0 percent was his lowest mark since 2011-12. Despite the playoff disappointment, the Sixers were a 54-win team, and Harden's playmaking was integral to that success.
If Harden departs for Space City, the Sixers will be left with little cap space and zero picks in the 2023 NBA Draft. In addition, the Rockets have the cap space to sign Harden outright, so they have no incentive to participate in a sign-and-trade. With that in consideration, it will be extremely difficult to acquire a second star to pair with Embiid.
The 2023 Sixers were not good enough to win the title. Next season, they could run it back with a worse version of that roster.
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