The Deshaun Watson era for the Cleveland Browns has gone far worse than anticipated. Watson has started eight games for the franchise, but limited availability -- due to a suspension last year -- is the least of the concerns for Cleveland.
Watson, since his return from suspension, has ammassed a quarterback rating of 76.2 with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. Worst of all, the Browns are 4-4 in that span.
Analysts are already fielding questions about the out for the Browns in Watson's contract -- a contract the Browns have already restructured to get around -- and why the Browns made this trade in the first place. It's being deemed a failed trade by several already.
I'm not ready to deem this trade a win or loss just yet. Watson, 28, should have several useful years left in his career. There is time to turn this around, technically speaking.
That said, looking at the field of options that were up for grabs for the Browns when and since they traded for Watson, it certainly looks like a head-scratcher for the time being. Few quarterbacks who have played eight games or more over the last two years have a worse cumulative expected points added than Watson. Here's the list of the worst 10:
10 worst quarterbacks in passing EPA, 2022 & 2023 with five games or more
Take a look at some of the options the Browns could have had and decide for yourself.
Jimmy Garoppolo
This one is a little bit of a tangled one, because Jimmy Garoppolo appeared available in a trade once Trey Lance was drafted in 2021, but remained the team's starting quarterback for some time thereafter. The cost asked by the Niners might have been prohibitive from this being a real possibility.
That said, the Browns, had they been patient, could have gotten Jimmy G in free agency this offseason. While that would have left a gap for the Browns to figure out in 2022, they were without Watson for all but six games anyway.
Here's how Garoppolo's performance has compared to Watson's in 2022 and 2023 so far:
Geno Smith
Geno Smith is the first quarterback we'll look at that shows how prudent other teams are at evaluating talent and finding diamonds in the rough while the Browns appear to have overpaid for the first shiny thing they could find.
Smith, who filled in at quarterback after Russell Wilson was traded, has proven to be everything the Seahawks needed in their signal caller and then some. After spending two years as a starter, Smith stayed in the background and appeared to be a career-long backup QB. But then, given the chance at starting in 2021 when filling in for an injured Wilson, there appeared to be some potential.
Seattle dug into that more when Wilson was traded.
Smith followed that up as the starter in 2022 with a solid 9-8 season and won Comeback Player of the Year decisively, also being named to his first Pro Bowl team.
Smith not only looks like a more productive quarterback than Watson at present, but he would also be more affordable. Smith has a three-year deal worth $105 million that has several off-ramps for the Seahawks and plenty of incentives driving the total value. His $25 million per year in average annual value still is far lower than Watson's $46 million.
Here's how Geno Smith compares to Watson in 2022 and 2023:
Derek Carr
Derek Carr is not a world beater by any means, especially over the last two seasons. Though he is off to a 2-0 start this year, he was 6-9 as a starter last year and benched by the Raiders before the year was out. His quarterback rating was the lowest in any one season since his rookie year, and his future in the NFL looked bleak.
The Saints, who once successfully saved Drew Brees, another quarterback the NFL world had given up on, signed Carr this offseason after attempting to first trade for him from the Raiders. Another quarterback that the Browns, had they been a bit more patient, could have acquired.
The point to be made here, looking at the stats, is that even Carr, who quite definitively saw his career decline in 2022, still looks like a more adequate solution to the Browns quarterback needs than Watson has thus far.
Carr is not a quarterback who comes off as a flashy solution to the Browns problems, but he'd probably have won them more than four games the last two years.
While Cleveland would have had to be patient to get Carr on its roster, he would have been able to start for them straightaway in 2023, and evidently at a higher level than now.
Here's how Derek Carr compares to Watson in 2022 and 2023:
Brock Purdy
The Browns should get a slight pass for passing on Brock Purdy in the 2022 NFL Draft because 31 teams did the same exact thing. Drafted with the very last pick by the San Francisco 49ers, Purdy skirted all assessments of his game in 2023, nearly leading his team to a Super Bowl appearance in his rookie season.
Already in 2023, he looks every bit the capable quarterback he proved he was last year and then some, with a slightly better passing success rate this year than last and a largely similar completion rate. He has yet to throw an interception and is fourth in EPA per play among quarterbacks through two weeks.
The point here is less about the Browns missing out on Purdy specifically, but rather the idea that the Browns likely could have gotten a lower-risk, higher-reward quarterback in the draft if they applied themselves and committed to better scouting and talent identification. Some patience may have been needed, too, something they just may not have felt was tenable after spending years on Baker Mayfield.
Watson was a knee-jerk signing that they doubled down on with a guaranteed contract for, and they could have found a cheaper, more effective option with a higher ceiling and more longevity in the draft.
Here's how Purdy compares to Deshaun Watson in 2022 and 2023 (Thursday night's Week 3 game excluded):
Tough scene in Cleveland.
