Two years ago, Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks shocked the basketball world by winning Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals on the road against Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. They went on to lose to Giannis Antetokounmpo and the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks in the Conference Finals, but the future looked bright.
Young was only in his third season in the league and had already elevated the Hawks to the same level they reached with Al Horford and Paul Millsap.
Unfortunately, things have taken a turn for the worse since then, and the Hawks have experienced a decline and plateaued. They haven't won a playoff series, and one could argue that their roster has only deteriorated. Young has continued to post impressive numbers, but questions arise about whether he's the player around whom a franchise should be built.
Here are four reasons why Trae Young could be on thin ice in the upcoming NBA season.
Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks have not been successful recently
As previously mentioned, the Atlanta Hawks have failed to win a playoff series for two consecutive seasons. They were eliminated in the first round of the 2022 NBA Playoffs by the Miami Heat and suffered a first-round defeat to the Boston Celtics in last season's playoffs.
Apart from an impressive Game 5 victory in Boston, they haven't appeared competitive in these series. It's evident that they lag far behind the Eastern Conference's top teams and lack a clear path to significant improvements in the near future.
The team invested heavily in acquiring Dejounte Murray, sacrificing multiple future draft picks, and has already committed approximately $141 million in contracts for the 2024-25 NBA season. They've placed a bet on this core group, and if Young fails to elevate their performance this season, it might be time for the team to consider a rebuild.
With new and heavier luxury tax penalties, ownership may not want to pay for a mediocre Trae Young led team
With the new NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement imposing even stricter luxury tax penalties, the Atlanta Hawks' owners seem uninterested in financing a mediocre NBA team. This summer, they traded John Collins to the Utah Jazz for Rudy Gay and a second-round pick, a move clearly made to reduce both current and future salary obligations.
Currently, the Hawks aren't projected to exceed the luxury tax threshold this season. However, should the team endure another disappointing season, they may contemplate a complete rebuild. With Young owed nearly $160 million over the next four seasons, it raises questions about why they would invest in him if success isn't on the horizon.
Having Trae Young as one max player has already proven to not be enough to be a contending NBA team. Young is on the books alongside De'Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Dejounte Murray, and a handful of players on rookie contracts through 2025 at least.
That core is not only very average but also expensive. They currently project to be $60 million away from the luxury tax line but Onyeka Okongwu and Saddiq Bey would be up for new contracts at that point, and demand much more than the modest $16 million annually they demand now.
The Hawks could let them walk, but they wouldn't have the money to replace those players via free agency. They could trade them, but for what return and what guarantee that the players they acquire don't bring them to the luxury tax line? And if they're not trading them for better players, is this even a playoff team?
Their hands are tied with their current roster construction, and the only two paths forward that guarantee a lot more flexibility is to either trade all the pieces around Young and get his buy-in on a rebuild, or trade Young himself.
Reports indicate Trae Young is not a great locker room presence or leader
A constant storyline for the Atlanta Hawks last season was that Trae Young was not well-liked in the locker room. He was not well-liked by former Head Coach Nate McMillan and actively tried to and succeeded in getting him fired.
Young's teammates are not exactly fond of him either. There are not a ton of specifics on this front. General dislike has been reported, and plenty of NBA media folks have raised eyebrows at the fact that none of Trae Young's former teammates have sung the former Oklahoma guard's praises.
It doesn't sound like Young has many friends or advocates within the organization and that could prove very costly if things go south. If no one goes to bat for Young, it could be the end of his and Atlanta's relationship.
The Atlanta Hawks will have more leverage if they look to trade Trae Young in the near future
The Atlanta Hawks may consider that trading Trae Young sooner rather than later could be more beneficial to them. Young's contract extends through the 2026-27 season, making him an attractive asset for potential trade partners who don't have to worry about his willingness to sign an extension. The Hawks would also have the luxury of waiting for the best trade offer if they decide to go down this path.
However, if they delay trading him for 2-3 seasons, Young could make public demands regarding his preferred destination and refuse to agree to an extension with any team that acquires him. This would shift the leverage away from Atlanta and into Young's and the teams he favors. If the Atlanta Hawks are contemplating trading Trae Young and embarking on a rebuild, doing so sooner rather than later would likely be in their best interest.
