Often the picks at the top of the NBA Draft come into focus well before draft night. But then there are those picks that no one saw coming.
The 2023 NBA Draft is nearly two weeks away. So, now is a perfect time to look back in time and reexamine some of the biggest surprises in NBA Draft history.
There have been some shocking moves over the years. Some have paid off, while others have simply remained perplexing. From unexpected selections to blockbuster trades, here are the five biggest all-time surprises.
Biggest surprises in NBA Draft history: 5. Russell Westbrook
2008 NBA Draft: Round 1, pick 4 (Seattle SuperSonics)
In hindsight, taking Westbrook with the fourth overall pick looks like a no-brainer, but at the time, it was a divisive decision.
Out of high school, Westbrook was only a three-star recruit, per Rivals. He committed to UCLA. As a sophomore, he stepped into the starting lineup and enjoyed a breakout season. He averaged 12.7 points, 4.3 assists, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.6 steals and won the PAC-10 Defensive Player of the Year. As a result, he shot up draft boards, but not everyone was convinced.
Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress wrote the following about the pick:
"Russell Westbrook is a player that may or may not prove to be worthy of starting at either backcourt position in the NBA, and taking him fourth was definitely a surprise looking at some of the other players that were on the board here…considering that he might need a very particular type of lead-guard alongside him was he worthy of being drafted fourth overall? On first glance the answer to that seems to be no, but Sam Presti might know something that we don't."
Sam Fader of Bleacher Report echoed a similar sentiment:
"Russell Westbrook being taken at the number-four spot. He's a good player, but I don't think he's top-five good. I think that NBA Execs overrated his 'winning' and 'intangibles' qualities."
Sam Presti made a bold decision, and it paid off. Westbrook became a nine-time All-Star and league MVP. The next guards off the board were Eric Gordon, D.J. Augustin, and Jerryd Bayless.
Biggest surprises in NBA Draft history: 4. Michael Olowokandi
1998 NBA Draft: Round 1, pick 1 (Los Angeles Clippers)
Point guard Mike Bibby seemed to be locked in as the number one overall pick in the 1998 NBA Draft. The NCAA Champion, PAC-10 Player of the Year, and consensus All-American was viewed as a near lock to be a valuable player at the next level.
However, the Los Angeles Clippers wanted to get a superstar. So, they pivoted and rolled the dice on center Michael Olowokandi, who was projected to be the second player off the board.
"It was a tough decision," Clippers general manager Elgin Baylor said. "When you look at Bibby, you know he's going to be a very fine point guard in this league."
Bibby had an underrated career, scoring 14,698 career points. In 2005-06, he averaged a career-high 21.1 points and 5.4 assists in 82 games.
Meanwhile, Olowokandi did not reach his superstar ceiling. He played five seasons for the Clippers; he averaged 9.9 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks, while shooting 43.3 percent from the floor.
Biggest surprises in NBA Draft history: 3. The Luka Doncic trade
2018 NBA Draft: Round 1, pick 3 (Dallas Mavericks via Atlanta Hawks)
The Luka Doncic trade was made possible by a series of surprising decisions. The EuroLeague MVP was widely viewed as the most NBA-ready prospect in the draft. Nevertheless, the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings both decided to pass on him at the top of the draft, instead taking Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III, respectively.
This put the Atlanta Hawks in an enviable position, as they were on the clock with, perhaps, the most valuable prospect in the class still on the board. Rather than play it safe, Travis Schlenk and the Hawks' front office decided to trade the pick to the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for the fifth overall pick (Trae Young) and a 2019 first-round pick (Cam Reddish).
Entering the night, Doncic to Dallas seemed like a remote possibility. The trade had a monumental impact on both franchises. Doncic has been a four-time All-NBA first-team selection with the Mavericks, while Young led the Hawks to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals and is a two-time All-Star.
Biggest surprises in NBA Draft history: 2. Bruno Caboclo
2014 NBA Draft: Round 1, pick 20 (Toronto Raptors)
The "Brazilian Kevin Durant" appeared to be far out of the first-round discussion. Most media outlets did not even include him on their big boards. In addition, most NBA teams had not seen the international forward play in person. So, when the Toronto Raptors elected to take him 20th overall, it was a massive surprise.
Despite the consensus, Caboclo did have a lot of upside. He stood at 6'9″ with a 7'7″ wingspan and had great athleticism.
"He's two years away from being two years away," Fran Fraschilla famously said on the ESPN broadcast.
Caboclo played a minor role for the Raptors, appearing in 25 total games over three and a half seasons. He also had stints with the Memphis Grizzlies, Sacramento Kings, and Houston Rockets.
Biggest surprises in NBA Draft history: 1. Anthony Bennett
2013 NBA Draft: Round 1, pick 1 (Cleveland Cavaliers)
When David Stern announced the Anthony Bennett pick, it sparked an unprecedented reaction. "Whoa!" exclaimed ESPN broadcaster Bill Simmons. The crowd erupted in cheers, shock, and bewilderment.
Entering draft night, the Cleveland Cavaliers were faced with a difficult dilemma. They held the number one pick, but the 2013 draft class lacked a clear top prospect. They had three clear options: center Nerlens Noel, shooting guard Victor Oladipo, and small forward Otto Porter Jr.
Noel was in the mix for the number one pick, but after suffering a torn ACL, he saw his draft stock tumble. Oladipo had all the tools to be an elite two-way guard, but the Cavaliers believed they already had their backcourt of the future in Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters (the No. 4 overall pick in the 2012 draft). Porter appeared to be a seamless roster fit. The team needed a small forward, and he had a desirable 3-and-D skillset. Still, he was viewed as a "high-floor, moderate ceiling" prospect. Could they justify using the number one pick on him?
In the face of these questions, the front office took an unexpected path, selecting UNLV forward Anthony Bennett. ESPN had ranked Bennett as the sixth overall prospect. He went on to play in 52 games for the franchise, averaging 4.2 points and 3.0 rebounds in limited minutes.
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