The college basketball season starts in early November, which means NBA Draft season is right around the corner. We've already gotten a first look at several prospects of import, most notably when the stacked G-League Ignite faced Alex Sarr and the Perth Wildcats in a series of international friendlies.
After a 2023 draft class brimming with future stars, not to mention the greatest prospect of his generation in Victor Wembanyama, the 2024 draft will feel much different. There are talented prospects — make no mistake about it — but the talent is spread much thinner near the top, and there's simply nobody close to Wemby (or even Scoot Henderson, or even Amen Thompson).
There is no clear top prospect. There is no 'locked' top three. There are several viable No. 1 candidates this far out, because there's so much left to establish. Every key prospect is burdened with a critical flaw or a lack of one clearly elite skill. The debates will rage all season. The top pick could ultimately come down to which team lands in the No. 1 spot, and what that team necessitates.
In short, roster context is more important than normal when discussing the high-profile names atop draft boards. Any team in the NBA would have taken Wembanyama. There isn't a prospect like that in the 2024 class. Not yet, at least. Right now, the Spurs would probably take a different prospect than the Hornets, who might take a different prospect than the Rockets.
So, let's dive in. Here are the five players with the clearest paths to No. 1 glory — with the underlying understanding that even names outside this list could break into the mix with a strong collegiate or non-NBA professional season.
5. Matas Buzelis, G-League Ignite
Matas Buzelis will benefit from a healthy presence of NBA scouts at every G-League Ignite game. He is a featured presence on a talented roster and his name has hovered around the No. 1 conversation for years at this point. It's not difficult to understand why: he's a 6-foot-9 guard with genuine playmaking equity.
The NBA loves positional size and versatility. Buzelis projects as a player who can defend three or four positions at his peak. He's not traditionally explosive, but he's extremely fluid and he possesses impressive feel. That last bit is always important when projecting toward the next level. Buzelis knows how to play the game and his role is scalable depending on team needs.
The primary hangup with Buzelis is his approach. He shoots well enough and he's a skilled finisher at the rim. He makes strong decisions, he thrives pushing the tempo in transition, and he's equally comfortable stationed away from the ball. He regularly makes his presence felt as a cutter, spot-up shooter, and connective passer. The 3s look good and there is upside tied to Buzelis' mid-range pull-up game, but he's simply not aggressive enough. His handle can get a bit loose when he operates in traffic and he doesn't profile as a true No. 1 option yet.
Obviously, most top picks are expected to play more than second-fiddle. If the right team lands in the No. 1 spot — one that values Buzelis' chameleonic attributes and ability to play within a structure — then it may not matter, but other teams will want to see Buzelis take another leap as a self-creator and offensive alpha as the Ignite's season unfolds.
4. Stephon Castle, Connecticut
Stephon Castle will immediately step into a winning situation with the reigning champs at UConn. Surrounded by a talented supporting cast that includes fellow first-round prospect Donovan Clingan, Castle is positioned to shoulder a significant workload. He ostensibly steps into the void left by 2023 lottery pick Jordan Hawkins. The 18-year-old is up to the challenge.
Hawkins was smaller than Castle and, frankly, far more limited. Castle doesn't possess Hawkins' unique knack for movement shooting, but he's far more dynamic on the ball. Castle loves working out of pick-and-rolls, using subtle shifts in speed and direction to shake his defender before bursting to the rim for a strong-armed finish or moving elegantly into a pull-up jumper.
Of course, experience goes a long way in college basketball. Hawkins operated with the confidence and poise of a sophomore in his breakout campaign. Castle will face a steeper learning curve as a presumed one-and-done prospect, but in a draft short on bonafide wing creators, he's a guard with positional size and go-to upside. The 6-foot-6 Castle figures to be a regular in lottery projections to start the season, but if the Huskies go far with Castle in a featured role, it would be extremely unsurprising to hear his name connected to the No. 1 spot.
He's scalable, which is all-important in today's league. Castle is a creative passer, a determined slasher, and a maestro of tough in-between shots. But, he can also move off the ball and occupy a connective role next to a more natural point guard. That may very well be his best fit at the moment. He's also a brick-wall defender who can wreak serious havoc with his effort and instincts.
3. Isaiah Collier, USC
A lot of folks will tune into USC games for Bronny James — and yes, James is a first-round prospect, perhaps even a lottery prospect. But, he is not the best guard in USC's backcourt. That label will belong to Isaiah Collier, the 6-foot-4 freshman who could launch his No. 1 pick campaign with a balanced and prolific campaign for the Trojans.
Collier doesn't possess outlier size or even speed for his position, but he is built strong. He can bulldoze taller players for finishes at the rim or use his shoulders to carve out space in isolation. Collier will need to prove his jumper to NBA scouts, but he's extremely crafty off the bounce with a deep bag of tricks finishing at the rim. That's enough to serve as the foundation of an elite NBA creator.
He is a true point guard in a class short on bonafide point guards. Collier operates with extreme poise and masterful body control. He doesn't have the most consistent 3-point shot, but he hits plenty of funky floaters and in-between shots. He does a great job of manipulating his defender coming around screens, deploying stop-start handles before finding the angle and exploding for the finish.
Collier makes every pass in the book. His vision working out of pick-and-rolls should translate immediately to the next level. He's great at locating the rolling big or drilling the weak-side shooter with a skip pass. His playmaking creativity and strong finishing should be enough for scouts to overlook jump shot concerns, so long as he gives them enough reason for long-term optimism on that front.
2. Ron Holland, G-League Ignite
Ron Holland is generating a ton of buzz right now. He's probably the No. 1 favorite on the G-League Ignite team, even with Buzelis, Izan Almansa, and other top prospects vying for the shared spotlight. A 6-foot-8 slasher with a serious mean streak on defense, Holland should keep NBA teams intrigued all season with his two-way versatility.
The Texas native has looked great in the Ignite's opening stretch of games. He's a potentially dominant driver, blessed with a bursty first step, the ability to climb vertically at the rim, and a nice collection of finishing moves. He also makes some impressive reads on the move, which should really hook talent evaluators in search of upside. Holland has the potential to regularly collapse the defense and create advantageous situations out of it, both for himself and for teammates.
Holland has looked good from 3-point range in the Ignite's early stages. His touch around the basket is another promising sign of future growth potential. If he can unlock his perimeter jumper in full, the impact of his slashing will increase. Holland also loves to run. He's well positioned to do so with Buzelis and the Ignite's young, athletic group. A transition-oriented NBA team could be particularly drawn to Holland.
What separates Holland from others on this list is defense. He's a fiery presence at the point of attack, but perhaps more special is the ground he covers. Holland has developed a knack for breaking up transition opportunities with his speed and his 6-foot-11 wingspan. He will rotate crisply in the halfcourt, even nabbing the occasional weak-side block. He's a regular in passing lanes.
1. Alex Sarr, Perth Wildcats
Frenchman Alex Sarr has put together a strong start to the season for the Perth Wildcats in Australia's NBL — including a 26-point, 10-rebound, six-block performance against the G-League Ignite. He has a real surge of momentum at his back and he occupies an athletic archetype that NBA teams crave.
Listed at 7-foot-1, Sarr has a strong foundation for success with his unique intersection of mobility, coordination, and explosiveness. He will erase shots at the rim, comfortably navigate the perimeter on defense, and cover large swaths of ground with his 7-foot-5 wingspan. He can switch, or he can sit back and wall off the paint. There are mild strength concerns, but NBA teams will be far more inclined to buy into all the positive attributes.
What has really launched Sarr into the No. 1 pick conversation, however, is his offense. He provides a strong baseline there as well. His athleticism and touch should translate to an elite vertical threat, but it's the perimeter flashes that have scouts circling his games on the schedule. Sarr will grab and go in transition, face up from the elbow for coordinated drives to the cup, or even hit the occasional spot-up 3. If he can develop into a legitimate offensive hub, Sarr's two-way impact will be difficult to ignore in the No. 1 spot.
In such a wide-open class, Sarr feels like the best upside swing. That counts for something, especially for NBA bottom-dwellers in need of foundational changes. Sarr can alter the calculus of opposing offenses with his paint presence and defensive versatility. On offense, he offers exciting wrinkles as a face-up scorer and connective passer, in addition to the rim finishing. He can check a ton of boxes, plus he's 7-foot-1. Players with his size and athleticism, in tandem, are still preciously rare.
