We're just four games into the careers of most 2023 NFL Draft picks. It is way too early to call anyone a boom or bust, but it's not too early for teams to have regrets. There are a few players in this draft that look like superstars. The first round was flooded with talent, and some teams took the right shot at a certain player.
Then some teams, on the other hand, went with a different approach. There's some that reached for a player that seemed like an overthinking situation. Others let obvious picks pass them by so they can take someone else lower on most draft boards. There were a few stars that became apparent already. Names like Jalen Carter of the Eagles, Anthony Richardson of the Colts, Bijan Robinson of the Falcons, and Christian Gonzalez of the Patriots look like they are bonafide stars (despite Gonzalez's injury).
Which teams missed out on these stars? Do they know they made a major mistake already? Let's start at the top.
1. Carolina Panthers, Bryce Young, Round 1, Pick 1
Who they missed: Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud
It's so, so early to evaluate quarterbacks, but there's no denying that the Panthers, who traded their 2024 first-round pick to trade up to take Bryce Young, would look so much better right now if Anthony Richardson or C.J. Stroud were under center. In fact, the Panthers might look better if they just kept the ninth-overall pick, kept D.J. Moore, and chose to give Andy Dalton the starting job.
Young has looked skittish and inaccurate to start his career. He's too conservative, and the big plays we saw him make at Alabama aren't happening in the NFL. Part of that is the talent around him. His top receiver is a past-his-prime Adam Thielen and a not-ready-yet Jonathan Mingo. Still, Young hasn't shown much of anything in his first three starts.
On top of that, he's already missed a game due to injury. The Panthers are currently winless, and it doesn't look like they are going to have any easy games on the schedule. Some thought they could steal some wins from the NFC South, but their rivals have been at least competitive. So, the Panthers might be using two number-one overall picks just to take Young, who hasn't shown he's the answer yet.
2. Las Vegas Raiders, Tyree Wilson, Round 1, Pick 7
Who they missed: Jalen Carter, Bijan Robinson
The Las Vegas Raiders have been terrible at the NFL Draft. Call a spade a spade. They can't pick players no matter who the regime is made of. They had the infamous three first-rounders in 2019. Clelin Ferrell is in Buffalo, Johnathan Abram is in New Orleans, and this is probably the last year Josh Jacobs is in black and silver after an offseason-long contract dispute. Alex Leatherwood is playing elsewhere just two years after he was the 17th-overall pick. Both Damon Arnette and Henry Ruggs III are no longer with the team, both dealing with serious legal trouble less than three years after they joined the team.
The Raiders need a win with a young player desperately. It's a team hanging onto the relevancy they once enjoyed by a thread. Raider Nation is a lot less scary with the Las Vegas strip in the background. This team hasn't been a true winner in years. They hoped to add a big pass rusher next to Maxx Crosby. That's why they took Tyree Wilson.
Wilson has all the tools to excel in the NFL. He stands 6-foot-6 and has hands as quick as lightning. At least, that was the case at Texas Tech. In the NFL, he looks a tick slow coming off the ball. Many could blame offseason foot surgery. It's possible he isn't 100 percent, but one player who is playing at this level is Jalen Carter. Of course, with the legal issues former first-round picks have had in Las Vegas, it's not a huge surprise the Raiders went a different direction at the time.
Still, the Raiders have to be dealing with some buyer's remorse on Wilson. He hasn't looked explosive, and those movements that made him a star with the Red Raiders haven't translated to his silver and black component. There's still time, obviously, but others are wildly outplaying Wilson.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers - Broderick Jones, Round 1, Pick 14
Who they missed: Christian Gonzalez, Anton Harrison
This one really hurts because it looked like a good pick at the time. The scouting report was all positives for Broderick Jones coming off a success college career at the University of Georgia. The offensive tackle looked versatile, and many expected him to hit another gear in the NFL. That still might happen, but he wasn't able to win a job out of camp. He actually lost it to Dan Moore Jr., who many Steelers fans wanted to send to the moon last season.
Moore Jr. got hurt in Week 4, and Jones was inserted into the lineup. He was ... not good. The entire Steelers team no-showed their game against the Houston Texans, but Jones especially looked overmatched. He was beaten multiple times in pass protection, and he put Kenny Pickett in danger like Ralph on the school bus.
The Steelers had a chance to take Christian Gonzalez. He would have flipped this secondary around, a position of serious need in Pittsburgh. Right now, they are relying on the services of veteran Patrick Peterson to help stop big passing plays. They did get Joey Porter Jr. in the second round (thanks to that insane Chase Claypool trade), but he hasn't been able to earn starts. Gonzalez would be an immense upgrade.
If we just look at the same position, the next offensive tackle taken was Anton Harrison. The Jaguars tackle has shown flashes of greatness in just a few starts. Meanwhile, the Steelers are curious if they were fed a can of beans in the draft process.
4. Washington Commanders, Emmanuel Forbes, Round 1, Pick 16
Who they missed: Christian Gonzalez, Zay Flowers
The Washington Commanders took a cornerback in the first round. Everyone thought the pick should be Christian Gonzalez. He was inexplicably falling, and the Commanders had a major need at the position. When the Commanders put in their card, it did have a cornerback on it. Emmanuel Forbes out of Mississippi State. It was a surprise then and likely a regret now. Even with Gonzalez's likely season-ending injury, the Commanders would love to have a lifetime of his career over what they are looking at now.
Things hit a death knell in Week 5 against the then-winless Chicago Bears. Emmanuel Forbes was the worst player on the field. Just four days after allowing a career day to A.J. Brown, Forbes let D.J. Moore put up 230 yards and three touchdowns. It was one of the worst performances of the year on national television.
The Commanders would trade Forbes for Gonzalez today if given the chance. They probably wish they took one of the wide receivers who went No. 18-21. Anything would truthfully be better than what Forbes is putting forth on the outside.
It's very possible Ron Rivera gives Forbes a chance to see the game from the sideline. He has ten days to regroup, but whatever is happening in practice that has him in the starting lineup isn't translating to the games. It's too early to truly call this a bust, but this one is the scariest pick of the draft so far.
5. Buffalo Bills, Dalton Kincaid, Round 1, Pick 26
Who they missed: Sam LaPorta
When taking a tight end in the first round of a draft with a ton of tight ends, the team needs to know they are getting the best of the bunch. It seems like the Buffalo Bills missed on that, with the Detroit Lions coming out with Sam LaPorta, who's been amazing so far this season. Meanwhile, through four games, Dalton Kincaid has less than 100 yards total. Meanwhile, LaPorta has 242 yards.
To be fair to Kincaid, it's not really his fault he hasn't produced yet. The Buffalo Bills are hitting on all cylinders, and they don't really need Kincaid. He has beaten Dawson Knox as the top tight end on the team, but the Bills have mostly used him in hitches and screens. His athleticism and ability to break big plays at Utah was what drove him to the first round. The Bills have Stefon Diggs to do all that.
This doesn't look close to a bust yet, but the Bills probably wish they could add Sam LaPorta to the offense. He looks great in his early career. The Lions got themselves a gem in the second round.
Kincaid might have one big game that sets him off for the next few months. Tight ends tend to take some time to establish themselves in the NFL. Kincaid is still the second-best one in the class today. For all the hype this class had, it's not living up to that hype. Of the nine tight ends taken in the first three rounds, six have ten yards or less this season. Kincaid is better than that, but he's still far from the best.
