It should be a rule, to be honest, to never bet on the Heisman Trophy winner before the season begins. While you may get good odds for the eventual winner, more often than not, the guys sitting comfortably in the top 10 in August will be anything but that come late November. With two months of the season having already taken place, it has taken a toll on many preseason Heisman favorites.
Last year saw USC quarterback Caleb Williams run away with the award throughout. While C.J. Stroud of the Ohio State Buckeyes certainly kept pace, he was only a finalist for the award for a second year in a row. As far as the other two finalists, nobody in their right mind thought TCU quarterback Max Duggan and Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett IV were serious candidates... until they both were.
Again, we still have another five games' worth of data to collect on many Heisman Trophy hopefuls. How the guys in the top 10 now play will give them a real shot at joining college football's most sacred fraternity. It is all about having a signature moment in a big spot once the weather starts to change. Look no further than how well Williams played last season vs. Notre Dame. Last year was last year...
Let's take a look at the preseason Heisman Trophy odds and who all have fallen off precipitously.
Heisman Trophy odds from start of the season until now
Here are the Heisman Trophy odds from DraftKings Sportsbook from the start of the year on Aug. 30.
Heisman Trophy odds, Aug. 30
- Caleb Williams (USC): +450
- Jayden Daniels (LSU): +1100
- Sam Hartman (Notre Dame): +1400
- Jordan Travis (Florida State): +1400
- Cade Klubnik (Clemson): +1400
- Quinn Ewers (Texas): +1500
- Michael Penix Jr. (Washington): +1600
- Carson Beck (Georgia): +1600
- Kyle McCord (Ohio State): +1600
- Bo Nix (Oregon): +1800
- J.J. McCarthy (Michigan): +1800
- Drake Maye (North Carolina): +1800
And here are the Heisman Trophy odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Nov. 1.
Heisman Trophy odds, Nov. 1
- Michael Penix Jr. (Washington): +280
- J.J. McCarthy (Michigan): +300
- Jayden Daniels (LSU): +400
- Bo Nix (Oregon): +600
- Jordan Travis (Florida State): +800
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State): +1000
- Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma): +3500
- Carson Beck (Georgia): +3500
- Ollie Gordon II (Oklahoma State): +6000
- Jalen Milroe (Alabama): +8000
- Caleb Williams (USC): +8000
Here are six Heisman hopefuls who have basically no chance of winning the trophy this season.
6. Caleb Williams (USC): +450 to +8000 (-7550)
Any hopes of USC quarterback Caleb Williams going all Archie Griffin on us and winning back-to-back Heismans went up in smoke after how poorly the Trojans played vs. Notre Dame. That was the game a year ago that Williams essentially clinched the 2022 Heisman. USC was bad and he was dreadful. Back that up with another loss to Utah for Williams and his focus should be on the NFL Draft.
Not since 2021 winner Bryce Young have we seen a blue-blood program completely waste a transcendent talent at the quarterback position in college. At least for Nick Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide, they won back-to-back New Year's Six bowls with Young at the helm of the team, as well as playing for a national championship. This is as much on Williams as it is on head coach Lincoln Riley.
As long as Williams stays healthy and keeps his composure, he should be Kirk Cousins' replacement.
5. Drake Maye (North Carolina): +1800 to +10000 (-8200)
Like Williams, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye feels like a top-five lock in the upcoming NFL Draft. He has been the No. 2 quarterback on most people's draft boards throughout. However, back-to-back losses in ACC play to hapless Virginia and rebuilding Georgia Tech have us wondering how much dog actually resides inside of Luke Maye's kid brother. One won titles. The other plays football.
North Carolina may have a 6-2 record, but the Tar Heels went from a serious threat to make the final four-team College Football Playoff out of the ACC, to a team that may not even get to a New Year's Six bowl. If UNC is unable to get to even the Orange Bowl, some of this falls on Maye, in addition to head coach Mack Brown. Maye is a mega talent, but that talent may be marginalized vs. better competition.
Look for Maye to be a top-five pick by a team that does not know what it is doing ... like New England!
4. Sam Hartman (Notre Dame): +1400 to +10000 (-8600)
Age is a number, just like Sam Hartman's Heisman Trophy odds. The former Wake Forest star transferred to Notre Dame ahead of his sixth college season. While he may have lit the Navy Midshipmen up like a Christmas tree over in Ireland, a pair of losses to Ohio State and Louisville have certainly taken some of the wind out of the sails of Hartman's Heisman Trophy catamaran campaign.
Then again, we should keep an eye on Hartman and the Golden Domers the rest of the way. Marcus Freeman's team is every bit top-15 caliber. They may have two losses on the year, but they should be in the mix to make the New Year's Six. Hartman needs to play well down the stretch to improve his draft stock. If he really shines in November once the weather changes, he could crash the NYC party.
While September was good for Hartman's Heisman hopes, October really put it on the back burner.
3. Kyle McCord (Ohio State): +1600 to +12000 (-10400)
If there is any Heisman candidate with a Hail Mary left to throw, it would have to be Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord. He may have seen his Heisman odds drop from +1600 in late August to +12000 in early November, but he does play for the No. 1 team in the nation at the most important position. Ohio State does not win the playoff under Ryan Day, but his quarterbacks go to New York.
If McCord were to stop being a walking stiff out there, he could join the likes of C.J. Stroud, Justin Fields and the late Dwayne Haskins to have represented the Scarlet and Grey in recent years in New York at the quarterback position. This is only his first year as the starter, so he has time to improve. Next year may be his best opportunity, but McCord is not ready to cross off just yet, to be honest...
If Ohio State goes 12-0 and wins The Game over Michigan, McCord could find himself in New York.
2. Quinn Ewers (Texas): +1500 to off the board
This one stinks, but it is totally understandable. Had Quinn Ewers not gotten hurt, he could conceivably be in the mix to bring Texas its third-ever Heisman Trophy. He has all the talent in the world, but being able to stay healthy has been a major concern for him the last two seasons. Texas is saddled with one loss, but looks to be the best shot the Big 12 has a getting a team into the playoff.
Truth be told, this latest injury for Ewers could keep him out for a few more weeks. It might honestly force his hand to return to Austin for one more year. This may throw the Arch Manning succession plan out the window, but Ewers should not turn pro prematurely if he is not at least a first-round grade. Injuries derailed his 2023 Heisman Trophy candidacy, but let's hope that is all that it derails for him.
Of course, there is one Heisman Trophy hopeful who also saw his candidacy go up in flames, aight...
1. Cade Klubnik (Clemson): +1400 to off the board
Ewers getting hurt is one thing, but Cade Klubnik has been the biggest disappointment of any preseason Heisman hopeful this year. He went from a top-10 candidate at the start of the campaign, to being completely off the board two months later. This has everything to do with his play. Clemson went from a perennial ACC power to being middling at best with a 4-4 (2-4) mark. How embarrassing.
Even though this is Klubnik's first year as the starter, I have my reservations about this getting any better. The offense has not improved with Garrett Riley taking over the operation. Head coach Dabo Swinney remains stubborn as hell and will not get with the times in an ever-changing college football landscape. Truthfully, I doubt Klubnik has the dog inside of him to just find ways to win games anyway.
The greatest disappointment through the first two months of the season is anything tied to Clemson.
