It's certainly hard to delight in the fact that the 2023 college football season is closer to being over than it is to the beginning. Only a little more than a month remains before we get into conference championship games and then, of course, bowl games.
But in this wild sport -- particularly in a season that has been largely colored through the lens of more parity than usual -- a lot can happen in that last month.
As things currently stand entering Week 9, the Georgia Bulldogs, Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Florida State Seminoles would be the four teams in the College Football Playoff. That is obviously going to change with Ohio State at Michigan in the season finale, but could also change depending on how Georgia competes without Brock Bowers and if Florida State can stay perfect.
As we come into the final month of the season, though, let's try to predict some of the chaos. These are seven bold predictions for college football at large that will determine how the College Football Playoff and bowl season takes shape.
7. USC finishes the regular season at 7-5
With the USC Trojans losing to Utah for the third straight time and, after getting their doors blown off the week prior by Notre Dame, Lincoln Riley's team is now all but assuredly out of the Playoff race. They might also be fighting uphill in the Pac-12 race too.
This has led to plenty of discourse in the aftermath of the Utah loss, specifically regarding Caleb Williams and if he should forego the rest of his college career to prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft. Most people agree that he should finish his time with USC -- even me, who provided a hot take example of why Williams would be smart to leave... that doesn't mean I truly believe he should or will.
Regardless of what happens with Williams, though, it's going to get worse before it gets better for the Trojans this season. If you thought the losses to Notre Dame and Utah were tough, things are about to get even worse.
Yes, USC should bounce back in Week 9 against Cal, even on the road. Thereafter, though, the Trojans finish the season at home against No. 5 Washington, on the road at No. 8 Oregon, and then at home for the rivalry matchup with No. 23 UCLA.
USC is likely to be an underdog in every one of those games. And while some might be giving them a chance to cause some chaos in the Pac-12 by getting at least one win, I don't see it. The losses will keep piling up as the defense remains abysmal, the offensive line can't block, and Williams keeps showing regression.
The end result will be the Trojans sitting at the end of the season at 7-5, just barely bowl-eligible, and heading into a post-Caleb Williams world with a multitude of questions about what's next for Riley and Co.
6. James Madison finishes as highest-ranked Group of 5 team, forces NCAA change
For the first time this season, the James Madison Dukes were finally able to crack the AP Top 25 college football rankings for the Week 9 poll. Given that we're talking about a Group of 5 program, that's not all that surprising. It is a bit more so, however, when you consider that JMU is 7-0 on the season and looking like the best team in the Sun Belt.
James Madison has also done it in more than one way this season to impress people, even those who have refused to be impressed. The Dukes have a road win against a Power 5 team and in-state rival, Virginia. They beat defending Sun Belt champions Troy on the road. And they're coming off of a stretch of handling South Alabama, Georgia Souther, and Marshall, all teams above .500 and with plenty of respect in the G5.
Now, the Dukes are finally getting a bit of their due as they move up to No. 25 in the country. Vying for the coveted spot as the top-ranked Group of 5 team, though, JMU is still trailing undefeated Air Force (No. 19) and one-loss Tulane (No. 22).
Of course, those other two programs want that distinction so that they earn a bid to a New Year's Six bowl game. The Dukes won't have the reward waiting for them, though, as they made the jump from FCS to FBS in 2022 and are still ineligible for postseason plays under NCAA rules as a result. It's a complete joke, but something that might change if JMU keeps on its current path.
James Madison has the toughest strength of schedule remaining among the ranked G5 teams. Given that and what they've done, should the stay unbeaten for the rest of the season, they could leapfrog Air Force and Tulane to become the top-ranked Group of 5 team -- and I believe that's what they'll do.
I don't know if it's entirely possible for JMU to end up playing a bowl game this year if they ended the season undefeated and in that spot. I do know, however, that when they do it, it will all but force the NCAA's hand to make changes to the FCS-to-FBS bowl eligibility rules as not having and undefeated FBS team play in a bowl game, NY6 or not, is a horrendous look the governing body will move to fix.
5. Georgia finishes regular season undefeated, wins SEC dominantly
With the number of close calls that the Georgia Bulldogs had already endured this season to stay the No. 1-ranked team in college football, some fans and analysts were already considering moving Kirby Smart's team down in the sport's hierarchy. And of course the Top 25 too.
Now, the Dawgs are going to be without star tight end Brock Bowers for what appears to be the remainder of the regular season. As such, anyone who was already giving consideration to Georgia dropping down in the rankings is just waiting for UGA to slip up without their best offensive weapon now.
Unfortunately for those waiting on the program's demise, it's not coming.
Losing Bowers is not going to make things easier for Georgia -- that would be a ridiculous assertion. However, the loss could essentially force offensive coordinator Mike Bobo and his unit to find their identity offensively and make the unit as a whole more efficient and effective without having Bowers in the lineup as the all-time go-to option for this unit.
Though the consistency since Week 1 hasn't been there, we've started to see the likes of wide receivers Dominic Lovett, RaRa Thomas, Marcus Rosemy-Saintjack and the ever-reliable (and recently returned) Ladd McConkey get rolling. That has also helped Daijun Edwards and the run game find some more juice too. And because this is Georgia, let's also not forget that Bowers' backup is the No. 51 player in the 2022 recruiting cycle, Oscar Delp.
Florida, Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee fans are probably hoping the Bowers injury gives them a chance against Georgia. I think it ultimately will give them less of one. The Bulldogs will emerge out of this even more dangerous and more dominant, finishing the regular season undefeated, beating whoever comes from the West in the SEC Championship Game handily, and looking primed to actually pull off the three-peat.
4. Oregon State, not Oregon, faces Washington in Pac-12 Championship Game
After watching the instant classic in Seattle in Week 7 with the Washington Huskies outlasting the rival Oregon Ducks in the Border War, virtually every college football fan had the same reaction: Man, I can't wait to see the rematch in Las Vegas for the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Make no mistake, I want that to happen too. On paper, these look like the two best teams and possible College Football Playoff contenders that the conference has to offer. Seeing a rematch between two high-caliber foes who appear as evenly matched as you can imagine is far from a bad thing.
I just, unfortunately, don't think we make it to that point.
Instead of Oregon facing Washington for the Pac-12 title, it will be rival Oregon State that ends up getting to Vegas to face the Huskies in another rematch -- just for a game that hasn't happened yet.
Oregon and Oregon State both currently only have one conference loss against them on the season. The Beavers' came against Wazzu at the end of September while the Ducks', as mentioned, was against Washington. Oregon State still has to play both Washington and Oregon in the final two weeks, but even if they lose the Huskies, they still have a path to the title game, namely beating their biggest rival in Eugene.
What I come back to with this, should it play out as such, is that Oregon's defense has one hole: the run game. We've seen teams be able to exploit that a bit and cause the Ducks problems. Oregon State, meanwhile, is probably the best rushing offense in the Pac-12 behind a great offensive line. Moreover, they have a defense to match it and could control that matchup from and X's and O's perspective.
There is a lot of chaos that could happen, but looking at the board and predicting a bit of a wild outcome that's entirely possible, this is what the Pac-12 will come down to. And if nothing else, it should create some absolute scenes in Eugene on Nov. 24.
3. Michigan beats Ohio State by double-digits for third straight season
Elephant in the room, who the hell knows what's going to happen with the Michigan Wolverines right now? The program is being accused of a years-long and relatively extensive cheating/sign-stealing scandal executed by mysterious staffer Connor Stalions. With an investigation still ongoing, we have no clue what the ramifications will ultimately be in Ann Arbor.
What we can say right now, however, is that Michigan has been dogwalking their competition to this point.
Granted, as was noted coming into the year as well, the Wolverines' schedule to get to 7-0 on the season has been Charmin-soft. The two best wins on the season for Jim Harbaugh's group might actually be a pair of home victories over Rutgers and UNLV. While those are two teams that are already bowl-eligible, those wins also aren't needle-movers.
Having said that, J.J. McCarthy and this Michigan team has performed like you'd want them to in these spots. Michigan's smallest margin of victory this season was a 31-6 win over Bowling Green in Week 3 -- a game Harbaugh was suspended for. They've won every game by 25 points or more and have allowed double-digit points just once -- a 52-10 win over Minnesota.
Michigan has been thoroughly dominant and a complete football team on both sides of the ball all season. And once gain, we appear to be making a beeline for another Ohio State-Michigan game in the season finale where the Big Ten title and a College Football Playoff berth hangs in the balance.
Ohio State has the better resumé at this point with wins over Notre Dame and Penn State, but the eye test tells me it won't matter. For as good as the Buckeyes defense is, they have yet to face a well-oiled machine like Michigan. More importantly, though, Kyle McCord has continued to look highly imperfect against the best defenses he's faced, which could be an issue, especially with the game in Ann Arbor this year.
At the end of the day, the Buckeyes just won't have the goods to compete with Michigan. In fact, it won't be close. Fans in Columbus will likely point to the sign-stealing stuff should that happen -- and that is undeniably warranted and justified -- but it won't change the result on the scoreboard come Nov. 25.
2. LSU beats Alabama, wins the SEC West
I'll be the first to admit that I've underestimated the Alabama Crimson Tide far too often this season. There was a quick movement to write off quarterback Jalen Milroe after some early issues and, while he's still far from perfect at the helm of the offense, he has shown tremendous improvement and has been one of the most explosive passers in the country.
As such, it looks to many like Nick Saban's team now has a clear path to the SEC Championship Game as they have only one ranked opponent left on the schedule over their final four games and with Bama's one loss on the year coming out of conference play against Texas.
Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers, however, could make other plans.
LSU has only one loss on the season in SEC play, with the other coming in their season-opener against Florida State. The Tigers are a flawed team in the same ilk of Alabama, though in different ways. While the Tide have a shaky O-line and an inefficient offense that relies heavily upon explosive plays but can fall back on its defense, LSU has a porous defense but one of the most dangerous and efficient offenses in college football.
For all of the tests that we've seen Milroe pass so far this season in the face of numerous haters, the one thing we haven't seen him have to do is keep pace in a bonafide shootout. The one exception might be the Texas game and, against a better defense than LSU's to be sure, Milroe and the Alabama offense fell short.
Jayden Daniels and the Tigers offense is capable of putting a big number on the scoreboard against literally anyone, scoring at least 41 points in all but two games this season, one of which was the season-opening loss to FSU. They'll be able to do the same against Alabama and the Tide won't be able to keep pace. That will give LSU the divisional head-to-head tiebreaker and, with Ole Miss likely losing to Georgia, will also earn the Tigers a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game.
1. Texas beats Oklahoma in Big 12 Championship, Red River Rematch
If your takeaway from the Red River Showdown a few weeks ago was that the Oklahoma Sooners were a significantly better team than the Texas Longhorns, then I don't know what game you were watching. OU is definitely more on Texas' level than I forecasted going into that matchup, but I still thoroughly believe that the Longhorns are the better team and would win head-to-head about 70% of the time.
And this all makes the possibility of a Big 12 Championship Game rematch for Red River that much more enticing. These are clearly the two best teams in the conference and that game was a beautiful one to watch. Moreover, if the Sooners and Longhorns both run the table, that will likely put a College Football Playoff berth hanging in the balance of the conference title game as one-loss Texas with a rematch win or an unbeaten Oklahoma team seems like a shoo-in for the CFP.
Running the table, of course, just became a much tougher task for Texas with Quinn Ewers suffering a shoulder injury that could hold him out for a couple of games. The good news in Austin is that Maalik Murphy has a ton of talent and will be guided by one of the best offensive minds in the sport, Steve Sarkisian, while Ewers is sidelined. They should be able to weather the storm.
Oklahoma has to hold up its part of the bargain too, which we saw in Week 8 might be easier said than done after UCF put a scare into the Sooners. But when all the dust settles, we will get the rematch for the Big 12 Championship Game in JerryWorld.
As mentioned, I think Texas is the better team. Ewers will be back on the field by then. Then, if they limit some turnover misfortune from the initial regular-season meeting and also have a better gameplan for Dillon Gabriel's leg, which should be achievable for the Longhorns, then they can comfortably handle the Sooners in the rematch. Texas will be back, and going to the College Football Playoff.
