Almost no-one saw Adyen NV’s €18 billion ($20 billion) share plunge coming.
Prior to Thursday’s 39% drop, the majority of analysts had a buy or equivalent rating. And of the four out of 35 tracked by Bloomberg that had a sell, even Citigroup Inc.’s Street-low target of €1,050 was made to look optimistic. Adyen shares closed at €898.4 in Amsterdam.
For many short sellers, meanwhile, the stock’s dive represented a missed opportunity. As of Wednesday, shares out on loan — an indication of short interest — represented about 3% of the company’s free float, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. That’s down from this year’s high of 5.4% reached in April.
“Short sellers seem to have overlooked a prime opportunity,” said Ivan Cosovic, founder of data tracking firm Breakout Point.
Adyen’s first-half results missed analyst estimates at pretty much every level. Aggressive competition in North America contributed to the slowest revenue growth since the Dutch payment processing company listed in 2018, something that very few had been bargaining for.
While it had been generally understood by investors that this year would be challenging from a cost perspective, “less appreciated was the potential for a net revenue slowdown, particularly as the global economy has remained resilient,” Evercore ISI analyst David Togut wrote in a note.
“The results are the first signs of weakness and suggests that competition in the space may be heating up,” Togut said, cutting earnings estimates for 2023 and 2024, while lowering his price target to €1,109 from €1,260.
Equita SIM analyst Gianmarco Bonacina shared a similar opinion. “The big disappointment was mainly due to the revenue miss, rather than the margin” he said by email.
Conference-call references by Adyen management to increased price competition in the US online market and the fact they didn’t point to a second-half recovery “was an additional negative,” Bonacina said.
--With assistance from Kit Rees.
