The 2023 MLB Postseason is going to start soon. The AL Wild Card has been in a tight race with the Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, and Seattle Mariners all still in t he running. Sadly, only three of these amazing teams can and will make the postseason.
No. 3 Contender who will make the postseason: Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers currently hold a 64.9 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. In addition, they are currently half a game above the Seattle Mariners for the third wild-card slot.
The Rangers have ten games remaining in the 2023 season, with seven of them coming against the Seattle Mariners in what will be a winner-takes-all series. They also play three games against the Los Angeles Angels.
The Rangers must play seven of their next ten games versus the Seattle Mariners. In the 2023 season, the Rangers hold a record of 5-1 versus the Mariners. With both teams competing for the final wild-card spot, they must rely on the Tampa Bay Rays to dominate the Toronto Blue Jays if both hope to make the playoffs.
No. 2 Contender who will make the postseason: Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays currently hold an 83 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. While they are up half a game and holding the second wild-card slot, they have some tough battles coming up.
The Blue Jays have only 11 games left in the 2023 season. If they don't start winning the majority of games to finish, it could eliminate them from the playoffs once again. They have to play the Yankees two more times, then visit the Rays for three games, then return to play the Yankees three more times before finishing with the Tampa Bay Rays.
That amounts to the Blue Jays having to play five more games against the Yankees to finish the 2023 season and six more games against the Tampa Bay Rays. Against the Yankees, the Blue Jays currently hold a 4-4 record, with five of the games being decided by three runs or fewer. Unlike the Yankees, the Blue Jays hold a losing record of 3-4 against the Tampa Bay Rays. This, like the other races, will come down to the final games.
The main advantage the Toronto Blue Jays hold is that the Yankees are nearly officially out of the postseason (0.1% chance of the Wild Card spot) and won't try as hard to win, and the Rays have several injuries to manage. Besides a few injuries, the Blue Jays are a healthy team that could, and hopefully will, push through at last.
No. 1 Contender who will make the postseason: Houston Astros
The Houston Astros currently hold a 90.2 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. They are currently leading their division by half a game over the Rangers and a game over the Mariners.
Besides some pitching injuries, the Astros are healthy and have all of their good players, ready for another huge postseason run. At the trade deadline, they improved by adding talent such as Justin Verlander, who will bolster the rotation alongside Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Christian Javier, and J.P. France, among others. Also, with players like Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve healthy, they are ready for the final push.
The Astros can't and won't miss the postseason after winning the World Series and now holding a healthy team; you can't bet against them. They only have nine games left, which is quite concerning, but they play three against the Royals, who they should sweep. Then they have to play the Mariners and Diamondbacks, both of which are in playoff contention.
The Houston Astros have struggled all season against the Seattle Mariners with a record of 2-8, but hopefully, they can put everything together for the final push and make it through. The Astros haven't played the Diamondbacks in 2023, but in 2023 they held a record of 2-2. With many improvements on both sides, this would be a good series to watch to see who could miss the postseason.
The Contender that will not make the postseason: Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners currently hold a 61.9 percent chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs. They also aren't currently in a Wild Card slot, down half a game to the Rangers but currently winning 6-3 against the Athletics and will be tied.
The Mariners have ten games left, seven versus the Rangers and three versus the Astros. This doesn't look good for the Mariners because any mistakes could cost them the postseason, so they will need players like Julio Rodriguez to pretty much carry them.
The Mariners currently hold a record of 1-5 against the Rangers, with the only win being a 5-0 shutout. If the Mariners don't step up and play at an elite level in these final weeks, they will most likely miss the postseason, which would be very saddening, but fans need to be realistic. They also have to play three games against the Astros. While they currently hold an 8-2 record versus them, when the postseason is on the line, the Astros will always find a way to win.
Mariners have really good pitchers in Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, along with others, but their main problem is they are too young. While they have been pitching well in 2023, all having a sub-4 ERA, they will struggle in the final few weeks as they are going to have to pitch against a lineup full of All-Star players.
While it would be another amazing headline to see the Mariners make the postseason, they have the lowest odds to make it, and unless they can dominate down the final stretch, they will get eliminated.
