The Angels have dropped the first three of a four game series to the defending World Series champions Astros to fall back to .500, can they get back on track?
Los Angeles has been outscored 21-10 in Houston this weekend, and will hope Griffin Canning can string together a quality start to stop the bleeding against the Astros, who counter with rookie J.P. France.
France has been solid in five starts for the Astros, but is there a setback coming due to some underlying metrics? Here are the odds for the series finale from Minute Maid Park:
Angels vs. Astros odds, run line and total
Angels vs. Astros prediction and pick
This is a pure fade of France, who has been pitching well beyond his level in the bigs so far. While his 4.00 ERA is supported by a 4.05 xERA, he is stranding base runners at an unsustainable 83% this season. Opponents have cashed in by way of the long ball, France has allowed six home runs in his five starts, but he has gotten out of even more trouble with some good variance on balls in play.
That will come to an end against an Angels team that is top 10 in hitting metrics like wRC+, which quantifies the quality of run scoring chances for each team, and has the seventh highest slugging percentage in Major League Baseball at .430.
Even with Jose Altuve back in the lineup, the Astros offense still rates out as a league average bunch, hitting .248 (17th in MLB) and slugging .396 (18th). Canning should be able to put together a strong start against this lineup with some positive regression coming his way. He has pitched to a 4.89 ERA this season, but his xERA is more than a half run lower at 4.31.
The Astros have a higher ceiling than the Angles, but with the Halos ability to crush France with hard contact, I believe the visitors can avoid the sweep and outperform this underdog price.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
