When does it become time for San Diego Padres fans to start to hit the panic button?
The team has made a ton of trades and signings in recent seasons, but it finds itself in fourth place in the National League West as we near Independence Day.
One of those trades brought in lefty Blake Snell, who has actually been a bright spot for the Padres this season. He has a 4-7 record, but the former Cy Young Award winner has a 3.21 ERA that he'll put to the test on Monday against the Los Angeles Angels.
The Angels are six games out of first place in the AL West, but they're hanging around the playoff picture at this point in the season. They'll start hybrid reliever/starter Jaime Barria (2-3, 2.92 ERA) for the sixth time this season.
Let's break down the odds for this West Coast matchup and dish out a best bet:
Angels vs. Padres odds, run line and total
Angels vs. Padres prediction and pick
Snell has just two starts all season where he's allowed more than three earned runs, but he's been especially hot as of late, posting a 0.86 ERA and 1.98 FIP over his last seven starts.
With that in mind, I'm going to take the Padres to win the first five innings on Monday night.
San Diego and Los Angeles both have great bullpens this season (No. 6 and 8 in bullpen ERA), but I'm not sold on Barria keeping the Padres in check early in this one.
The Angels righty allowed five runs on seven hits in three innings in his last start, and his numbers as a starter are much worse than when he comes out of the pen.
As a starter this season, Barria has a 4.43 ERA (compared to 1.67 as a reliever) and opponents are hitting .261 against him (compared to .196 as a reliever).
By taking the first five innings, we just need Snell to get off to yet another hot start to win this bet instead of relying on the bullpen. Despite Snell's impressive ERA, the team is just 5-11 in his starts, so I'd much rather only have to trust him to win this wager.
Back the Padres early on Monday.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
