The Atlanta Braves offseason has just begun. Thus far, Alex Anthopoulos has focused on the bullpen, extending the likes of Pierce Johnson and Joe Jimenez. Charlie Morton opted into the final year of his contract, and should return to the Atlanta rotation as well. Eddie Rosario's option was declined, so the team needs a new left fielder.
Atlanta has been linked to any number of free-agent starting pitchers this offseason, if only because of the injury to Kyle Wright and uncertainty surrounding Morton's situation up until a week ago. No bigger name (minus Shohei Ohtani ever so briefly) has been linked to Atlanta than Aaron Nola, a former rival with the Phillies who is expected to be one of the highest-paid pitchers on the free-agent market. Surely, Nola would be out of the Braves price range under normal circumstances, but these are not normal times.
The Braves won 104 games last season yet lost their first playoff series against these same Phillies. Dealing them a blow by signing Nola is appetizing, and recent rumors suggest they may have more money on their hands than expected if Vaughn Grissom can fill that left field void. If that's the case, then perhaps Nola is in their price range after all, though he'd likely become the highest-paid member of the team immediately.
Let's live in this alternate reality together, if only for one article. Here's what the Braves rotation could look like IF they're actually willing to spend the money.
Braves No. 5 starter: Cal Quantrill, RHP
Aaron Nola or not, a cheaper rotation upgrade could be available in the form of Cal Quantrill, who the Cleveland Guardians surprisingly DFA'd on Tuesday. Quantrill was thought to be available in trade talks, via FanSided's Robert Murray, though Cleveland could not find a partner in time for the 40-man roster deadline.
Quantrill had an off year in 2023, posting an ERA over five. It was his worst season since his rookie year in San Diego. However, in 2021 and 2022, Quantrill looked like he could be ace-caliber with the Guardians. He flirted with AL All-Star contention at times, and were he not in a smaller market may have received the accolade he deserved.
Now available to any and all teams in what's considered a weak free agent market, the Braves are just one of several teams expected to be interested in his services. I wrote about how he fits into Atlanta's rotation upon his release:
"Another potential option would be the Atlanta Braves, if Alex Anthopoulos is willing to make the move...If AA chooses to upgrade his starting rotation, Quantrill makes sense as a buy-low candidate. If he returns to 2022 form, the Braves pitching staff will be much improved as a result."
Now, that's a lot of ifs, but he'd immediately become one of the most accomplished back-end starters in baseball on a prove-it deal.
Braves No. 4 starter: RHP Charlie Morton
When Charlie Morton opted in to his $20 million deal, it was met with mixed reviews from Braves fans. While he's beloved in Atlanta, Morton also slowed down some at the end of the 2023 season and in the playoffs. Now on the wrong side of 40 by the start of spring training, there is some question as to his overall usage and whether he can be relied upon for long regular-season stretches.
As a No. 4 starter, Morton fits perfectly, though. He's a veteran who has been through the ringer time and time again for the Braves. Morton doesn't rely heavily on velocity, and his pitch-to-contact approach works very well with the Atlanta infield. As FanSided's Cody Williams noted in a previous dream rotation article, Morton makes a lot of sense in the back end of the rotation, and is presence could knock several other high-end starters to the bullpen. It also gives the Braves an option for a six-man rotation.
"If we're talking about a dream rotation for the Braves, I believe Morton as the veteran presence with the No. 5 starter is the right call. Yes, that takes a 2023 All-Star in Bryce Elder out of the rotation and raises question marks for the likes of Jared Shuster, AJ Smith-Shawver and Michael Soroka," Williams wrote.
The Braves have options, but in a true dream scenario, Morton in the No. 4 slot is a best-case option.
Braves No. 3 starter: LHP Max Fried
Max Fried's future in Atlanta is as cloudy as ever. He has one year of arbitration left on his current deal, but beyond that there's no guarantee he stays in the ATL. Fried will be over the age of 30 and the Braves have plenty of young pitchers in the hopper, including Elder and Smith-Shawver to potentially take over. If they signed a high-priced free agent this offseason, it could spell the end of Fried in a Braves uniform a year early.
Fried and Anthopoulos have talked long-term extension in the past, but to no avail. Fried would surely expect to become the highest-paid player on the Braves roster, and Anthopoulos has a habit of signing his stars before they reach peak value. Fried, expected to hit free agency, would make more elsewhere. A move to the west coast seems imminent, potentially to the Dodgers or Angels, both of whom will need pitching a year from now regardless of what they do this offseason via free agency or trade.
All that being said, a motivated Fried looking to prove himself in a walk year isn't the worst-case scenario for the Braves. In fact, it could be the send-off Atlanta didn't know they needed. A postseason rotation of Fried, Spencer Strider and a free-agent addition would be a nearly impossible out, and an improvement over what the Braves featured in 2023.
Fried's injury status is a question mark. He sat out several months of the season with an ailment of his own, and wasn't quite the same when he returned in August. That's why sliding him into the No. 3 spot makes the most sense, and doesn't quite offer the same pressure for a pitcher who would be an ace on most teams.
Braves No. 2 starter: RHP Aaron Nola
Oh, yes. The recent rumors suggesting the Braves would be interested in Aaron Nola have reached a fever pitch, so much so that we feel inclined to acknowledge them. Nola does have a connection to Atlanta that may give them an edge over other teams, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggests:
Rosenthal wrote, "Of the pitchers available, righty Aaron Nola is perhaps the most intriguing fit. Nola is close with Braves pitching coach Rick Kranitz, who was with the Philadelphia Phillies from 2016 to '18. And as a native of Baton Rouge, La., who attended LSU, he might prefer to sign with a team in the south."
With the Phillies seemingly out on Nola given his price tag, the Braves are a looming threat for his services. He's coming off the worst year of his big-league career, posting an ERA over 4.50. That won't cut it in Atlanta. However, Nola improved immensely towards the end of the season and was the star of the Phillies pitching staff in the postseason. He and the Phils were one game away from reaching another World Series, but lost two straight games at home to the Diamondbacks, thus cementing their fate.
Nola signing in Atlanta would make him a villain in Philadelphia, which is all the motivation Anthopoulos needs to pursue him. The money is an issue, but in this 'dream world', money is not object to the Braves.
Braves No. 1 starter: RHP Spencer Strider
Even with the arrival of Aaron Nola, Spencer Strider should be the Braves ace moving forward. Strider emerged as a regular NL Cy Young candidate in 2023, and his high-velocity stuff paired with elite breaking pitches make him one of the toughest pitchers to face in baseball today.
The emergence of Strider is just one reason why the Braves and Anthopoulos likely feel they can let Fried walk if his price gets too high. Strider is signed long term thanks to a classic Anthopoulos extension, as AA signed the righty before he reached his peak arbitration years.
The 25-year-old credited his mental accuity as a key reason for his development in 2023. Assuming he can keep a similar approach in 2024, the question isn't when he'll receive an NL Cy Young award, but how many he'll win with the Braves.
"I didn't have 100 percent focus on every pitch," Strider said, per The Athletic. "I was just kind of throwing pitches. And for whatever reason, they just didn't hit the ball."
The Clemson product has always had elite stuff, but didn't maintain focus on a pitch-by-pitch basis. When he arrived in Atlanta (a former fourth-round pick, mind you) that all changed.
"I executed a lot of pitches, but it wasn't because of intent. I wasn't self-aware necessarily. Sometimes, there is something to that. But that can't be what you rely on for success," Strider continued.
Strider should only improve from here on out, and some continuity in the Braves rotation is a good thing, even if they bring Nola aboard.
