Wednesday's Major League Baseball action starts early with the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves playing at 12:20 p.m. EST, but that's not where I'm focusing for today's MLB prop bets.
Once again, pitchers are the prime targets on Wednesday, especially New York Mets rookie Kodai Senga, who takes on the Milwaukee Brewers.
Plus, I have a first five innings pick in the San Diego Padres-Pittsburgh Pirates game.
Let's break down each of Wednesday's picks:
Best MLB prop bets today
- Kodai Senga OVER 16.5 outs recorded (-130)
- San Diego Padres-Pittsburgh Pirates First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 runs (-125)
Kodai Senga OVER 16.5 outs recorded (-130)
This prop is available at DraftKings Sportsbook at 16.5, and I absolutely love the OVER at that number.
Let's look at Senga's post-April starts, because that's when the Mets started letting him touch 100 pitches or more.
In nine starts, he's recorded 17 or more outs five times, throwing 95 or more pitches in eight of those starts. In April, Senga cleared 95 pitches just once.
On Wednesday night he has a favorable matchup with a Milwaukee team that is struggling at the dish, ranking 27th in OPS over the last month and 27th overall for the season.
Senga is a value in this prop considering that he's pitched well lately (3.52 ERA, 4.12 FIP on the season).
San Diego Padres-Pittsburgh Pirates First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 runs (-125)
Over the last 30 days, the Pirates are just 26th in OPS, and now they have to face a red-hot Blake Snell and the Padres.
Snell has allowed just one run and 10 hits in four June starts, posting a 0.50 ERA over his last six outings. The former Cy Young Award winner is getting back to his old form, and that makes an early bet on the total a great play.
Pittsburgh has ace Mitch Keller (8-3, 3.45 ERA, 3.26 FIP) on the mound to counter Snell. Keller has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 16 starts this season, and he's worked deep into games as of late, pitching at least six innings in seven of his last nine starts.
I expect pitching to reign supreme in this outing.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
