Major League Baseball has a bit of a shorter slate on Monday, but that's not stopping me from finding three different pitching props to bet on June 19.
We're starting with a pair of undervalued pitchers in the strikeout market before fading Kansas City Royals starter Jordan Lyles, who has an insane trend working against him.
Let's break down the picks:
Best MLB prop bets today
- Jose Berrios OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
- James Paxton OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
- Reese Olson to Record a Win (+170)
Jose Berrios OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
I'm going back to the well with Toronto Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios, who has struck out at least five batters in 10 of his 14 outings in 2023.
Berrios has also been pitching well, posting a 1.94 ERA since May 6 and tossing 7.2 innings of shutout ball in his last outing.
The Miami Marlins have struggled against right-handed pitching this season (23rd in OPS), so I expect Berrios to keep his hot streak going.
James Paxton OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Boston Red Sox lefty James Paxton has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in Major League Baseball this season, and he's got a dream matchup on Monday night.
Paxton is taking on the Minnesota Twins, who lead Major League Baseball in strikeouts per game at 10.31.
The Red Sox lefty ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout percentage and 90th percentile in whiff percentage this season, so I expect him to miss plenty of bats in this matchup.
In his six starts, Paxton has cleared this line four times, punching out 44 batters in 32 innings of work. At 6.5, he's a massive value in this game.
Reese Olson to Record a Win (+170)
This is a bit of a reach here, especially since it's just the fourth start of Reese Olson's career, but he's going up against the most fadeable pitcher in MLB.
Jordan Lyles and the Kansas City Royals are 0-14 in his 14 starts, so I love Detroit to win this game. There's more value in taking Olson to get the win – and I think it makes sense since Lyles has gotten rocked this season to the tune of a 6.89 ERA.
Olson pitched well in his first two starts before getting rocked by a great Atlanta Braves offense in his last start. He still has a FIP of 3.50, and the Royals are a much worse team than Atlanta.
If Olson can get through five innings, I like him to win this game.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
