BUFFALO (4-2) at NEW ENGLAND (1-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT, CBS
BETTING LINE: Bills by 8 1/2, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
AGAINST THE SPREAD: Bills 3-3; Patriots1-5.
SERIES RECORD: Patriots lead 77-49-1.
LAST MEETING: Bills beat Patriots 35-23 on Jan. 8, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY.
LAST WEEK: Bills beat Giants 14-9; Patriots lost to Raiders 21-17.
BILLS OFFENSE: OVERALL (5), RUSH (12), PASS (8), SCORING (3).
BILLS DEFENSE: OVERALL (12), RUSH (25), PASS (7), SCORING (3).
PATRIOTS OFFENSE: OVERALL (27), RUSH (26), PASS (22), SCORING (31).
PATRI0TS DEFENSE: OVERALL (10), RUSH (15), PASS (12), SCORING (T-24).
TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Bills plus-4 (T-10); Patriots minus-8 (T-31).
BILLS PLAYER TO WATCH: RB James Cook. If Bill Belichick’s modus operandi is taking away a team’s top threat, expect the Patriots to blanket receiver Stefon Diggs. That puts an onus on Cook, the second-year running back, to pick up the slack. Cook bounced back with 71 yards rushing against the Giants, a week after finishing with minus-4 yards against Jacksonville.
PATRIOTS PLAYER TO WATCH: WR Kendrick Bourne. He had a career-high 10 catches last week against Las Vegas. He leads the team in catches (28) and receiving yards (307). He is also tied for the team lead with two receiving touchdowns.
KEY MATCHUP: Patriots secondary vs. Bills receivers. The Patriots have the NFL’s eighth-ranked passing defense, allowing just 256.7 yards per game. The Bills are averaging 374.8 passing yards and have scored 11 of their 18 red zone touchdowns through the air. Opponents have scored on only 9 of 20 opportunities inside the 20-yard line against the Patriots.
KEY INJURIES: Bills QB Josh Allen is expected to play despite being listed as having a sore right throwing shoulder. ... Buffalo is already thin at cornerback with starter Tre’Davious White out for the season. Kaiir Elam, who has started the past two games, is bothered by an ankle injury, and backup Dane Jackson (foot) could miss a second game. ... Starting DT Ed Oliver’s status bears monitoring after hurting his toe last week. Buffalo’s defensive line is already down starter DaQuan Jones (torn pectoral muscle). ... Backup RB Damien Harris is not expected to play after sustaining a neck injury and also being placed in the concussion protocol. … Patriots LT Trent Brown (chest), Hunter Henry (ankle), CB Jonathan Jones (knee), OL Riley Reiff (knee), LB Josh Uche (knee/ankle) and DL Keion White (concussion) all sat out the first practice of the week. Another 14 Patriots players began the week limited.
SERIES NOTES: Including the playoffs, Buffalo has won the past four meetings and six out of seven. … The Patriots won 15 straight games against the Bills from 2003 through 2010, tied for the fifth-longest winning streak over a single opponent in NFL history.
STATS AND STUFF: After losing his first three starts against New England, Bills QB Josh Allen has won six of seven, including an AFC wild-card playoff meeting two years ago. ... Allen has thrown a touchdown pass in 14 straight outings, one short of a career-best streak. He’s scored a touchdown in 31 straight games, going back to a 9-6 loss at Jacksonville on Nov. 7, 2021. ... Allen’s combined 131 yards rushing are his lowest total through the first six games of a season of his six-year career. ... With 10 catches for 100 yards last weekend, Diggs became the fifth player in the Super Bowl era to have five 100-or-more yard receiving outings in his team’s first six games of the season. Former Minnesota teammate Adam Thielen, in 2018, was the only player to do it in each of his team’s first six outings. ... Diggs’ 49 catches represent a third of Buffalo’s total this season and tie the team record he set last season for most receptions through six games. ... Buffalo’s 24 sacks are tied for the NFL lead, and are the second most in team history through six games since the NFL began using sacks as an official stat in 1982. The Bills had 25 sacks through their first six games in 1997. ... Buffalo’s past two opponents have combined to convert 20 of 37 third down attempts. In their first four games, opponents went a combined 12 of 39 on third down. … Belichick (299) will try for a fourth straight game to join Don Shula (328) and George Halas (318) as the only NFL coaches with 300 regular-season wins. Including the playoffs, Belichick is 36-12 against the Bills. … The Patriots have 77 wins over the Bills, the most by the Patriots against any one opponent. The Jets are second on that list with 74 wins by the Patriots. … QB Mac Jones completed 24 of 33 passes for 200 yards last week, his second game this season with a 70-plus percent completion rate. He passed for 243 yards and three TDs in New England’s most recent meeting with Buffalo. … LB Ja’Whaun Bentley is tied with S Kyle Dugger for the team lead with 40 total tackles. … S Jabrill Peppers had seven tackles and a season-high two pass breakups last week. … P Bryce Baringer is leading the NFL with 16 punts placed inside the 20-yard line. … CB J.C. Jackson leads the NFL with 26 INTs since entering the league in 2018. He has four picks against Buffalo in his career.
FANTASY TIP: Allen has fared well against the Patriots lately. Since a 14-10 loss on Dec. 6, 2021, he has combined to go 92 of 136 for 1,099 yards with 13 TDs and an interception in the past four meetings with New England.
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