BlackRock Inc. predicts that the global private debt market will roughly double to $3.5 trillion by 2028, one of the most bullish calls to date on the growth of the industry.
The money manager is forecasting that “tectonic shifts” in financial markets will spur more borrowers to seek out private funds for financing, especially as some banks pull back from lending, according to a note published on Thursday by Amanda Lynam, BlackRock’s head of macro credit research.
“As the private debt market continues to grow in size, its capability to compete directly with the public debt financing markets will likely expand,” Lynam wrote, adding that there is growing appetite among institutional and retail investors for the assets.
BlackRock said it expects private debt to grow at about a 15% compound annual rate over the next five years. The market is currently estimated at $1.6 trillion and could reach $1.75 trillion by the end of the year, according to the paper. Preqin Ltd., which tracks data on the alternative investment market, said this month that private debt globally will reach $2.8 trillion by 2028.
Read More: BlackRock Says Private Credit Shift From Banks Is Here to Stay
BlackRock is among many large asset managers that are expanding into private credit markets, setting up new funds, acquiring or partnering with specialist investors and predicting the market will grow considerably.
While private markets as a whole have suffered one of the most difficult fundraising periods since the global financial crisis, private credit has held up comparatively well. Private credit deals are typically floating rate, leaving them less exposed to higher interest rates than fixed-rate investments.
--With assistance from Katharine Hidalgo.
