BMW Championship picks and best bets at Olympia Fields this week with an outright, Top 10, One and Done, and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.
It's Lucas Glover's world on the PGA Tour, we're just living in it. After being outside the Top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings entering Wyndham, he's reeled off back-to-back wins, including the first playoff event last week at Memphis, to move up to fourth in the standings. He now takes that positioning into Olympia Fields in Chicago this week for the 2023 BMW Championship.
Golf fans and, more importantly, golf bettors and handicappers should take note when making BMW Championship picks that this is a rotating course. We saw this event at Wilmington Country Club last year in Delaware, but it's back to Olympia Fields, where Jon Rahm triumphed in dramatic fashion over Dustin Johnson back in 2020.
Our PGA Tour expert picks were close but not good enough last week. We did have Lucas Glover on the card for a Top 20, but we still were down a little over a unit overall last week. Time to get back to winning ways with our BMW Championship picks for this week!
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2023 through FedEx St. Jude Championship: 47-137-2, +11.356 units (3-48 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets, 0.1 unit longshot bets | -1.4 units at St. Jude)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $8,963,050.65 (Hideki Matsyama at St. Jude, $310,000)
PGA Tour expert picks for BMW Championship: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
Top 10 Pick for the BMW Championship: Corey Conners (+320, DraftKings)
Corey Conners might be about to sneak up on some people this week. Did you know he quietly ended up T6 last week? Probably not, but such was the case. He also did that while losing strokes on approach, which is far from his DNA as a PGA Tour pro. If he can get back to form there with his putter coopoerating for now, this feels like extreme value for the Canadian to register another Top 10 finish.
Pick to Win the BMW Championship (0.5 Units): Viktor Hovland (+1600)
Yes, we're going with Hovland again. The guy lost 4.0+ strokes on one hole (No. 18) last week and still finished T13 in Memphis. You can't ignore the way he's elevated his game on the toughest courses and the way his ball striking and long, accurate driving (outside of that 18th hole at TPC Southwind) should fit this course. Moreover, Oak Hill is a top comparison for Olympia Fields, where Hovland was in contention to win the PGA Championship. I'm back on him again and think he's going to grab another victory this week.
One and Done Pick for the BMW Championship: Corey Conners
For the billionth-straight week, we are running low on names. But I love Conners this week with his trending form and his pedigree. He should be able to handle a difficult track and cash a nice One and Done check for us.
BMW Championship picks and best bets
Collin Morikawa to finish Top 10 (+200, DraftKings)
Morikawa finished T20 at Olympia Fields back in 2020, but I love where he's trending. He's gaining 1.62 strokes tee-to-green over the last 20 rounds but, more importantly, the putter has also been a gainer at 0.33 strokes gained over that span. If he's putting even decently, the ball striking is at the point where he's trending to really contend and I love for him to do it on a difficult track where he has some decent memories.
J.T. Poston to finish Top 20 (+150, DraftKings)
Poston really disappointed us last week as he was in contention for a Top 10 but then just couldn't find it on the weekend. Even still, the ball striking on approach combined with his elite short game are hard for me to ignore. He still has four finishes of T7 or better in his last six starts and only one outside of the Top 25 in that span. As long as he has the driver dialed in accuracy, I think he pops up hugely this week at the BMW.
Rory McIlroy to finish Top UK and Ireland (+120)
With the limited field, I'm trying to get a bit creative with betting the best players in the world. Rory is only +650 to win outright this week. So let's eliminate a large portion of the field and still get plus odds on him finishing as the Top UK and Ireland player this week. McIlroy was T12 at Olympia Fields in 2020 but his game is in terrific shape right now, even showing life with the putter at the end of last week. He could very well win and I feel great getting him on the card at these odds with the cushion of him not having to win.
Longshot pick to win the BMW Championship (0.1 Units): Emiliano Grillo (+8000)
It was a relatively pedestrian T20 finish for Grillo last week but I still love the metrics. He's figured out the putter, has played well at tough golf courses this year, and we know how good the ball striking pedigree is with him. There are only 50 players in the field, so we're looking at the best value we can find, which I'm considering Grillo, who we hit as a longshot outright earlier this year already. Let's do that again, shall we!
