The 40-35 Cincinnati Reds just keep on winning. Cincinnati has won 11 straight games in a stretch that includes three series sweeps.
The Reds now face its toughest test with a matchup against the Atlanta Braves. The best team in the NL is in town for a three-game weekend set, so let's get into the pitching matchup for the opening matchup.
AJ Smith-Shawver will make his third start this season and of his career for Atlanta and comes in at 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA. He will be opposed by 1-2 Luke Weaver who has a 6.47 ERA in 11 starts for Cincinnati this year. The 47-26 Braves are favorites in this one, but not by much.
Braves vs. Reds odds, run line and total
Braves vs. Reds prediction and pick
Yes the Reds are the hottest team in baseball right now, but that might be giving us some value in these odds. Luke Weaver is a legitimate disaster on the mound and they've won his last four starts despite his 8.53 ERA during that stretch. That is because of their offense, but it can't be understated how hard it is to win when your starting pitcher puts you behind the eight ball consistently every fifth day.
Another reason that there could be value fading the Reds in this one is the opponents they've had on this win streak. The great stretch of play began against the Dodgers, but the win streak has been against the last-place Cardinals, the last place Royals, the not-so-dominant-like-years-past Astros and the last place Rockies.
In June the Reds have been lethal offensively, but Atlanta has been much better. Cincinnati is seventh in OPS, Atlanta is first, Cincinnati is sixth in home runs, Atlanta is first, Cincinnati is first in runs, Atlanta… you guessed it first. The Braves are much better and barely laying any juice on the moneyline against Luke Weaver feels like a great bet to me.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change
