By Luana Maria Benedito and Gabriel Burin
SAO PAULO/BUENOS AIRES Brazil's central bank will likely cut its benchmark Selic rate by another half-percentage point next week, maintaining a steady pace of easing as the global economic and geopolitical backdrop worsens, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
If realized, it would be the third 50 basis point reduction since June, when the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) ended a "hawkish pause" that had kept rates at a peak of 13.75% since August 2022 after an anti-inflation policy drive.
All 40 economists polled over Oct. 23-27 expect the BCB's rate-setting committee, known as Copom, to announce a cut in the cost of credit to 12.25% at the end of its meeting on Wednesday, Nov. 1.
"Copom should keep the tone of its last statement, indicating it will maintain its easing pace at the next meeting as well, and reinforcing that the bar for accelerating it is quite high," said Luciano Rostagno, chief strategist at Mizuho.
"Risks abroad are growing: long interest rates in the United States are rising and geopolitical risks are increasing, which in turn could generate oil price shocks."
A surge in U.S. Treasury yields as the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer message gains traction is becoming a major concern for emerging market economies that last month saw net outflows of $13.8 billion due to the implications of the sovereign bond selloff, among other factors.
Meanwhile, the Middle East conflict draws a new set of risks into the forecasts made by central banks, with a potential jump in energy costs looming over an already weakened global economy.
The BCB is sticking to what it calls a "parsimonious" approach characterized by elevated real rates that have proved instrumental in avoiding significant capital flight.
While the tough monetary strategy is beginning to hurt economic activity, "services inflation is still resilient and inflation expectations continue above (the center) target," Mizuho's Rostagno said, further supporting BCB's caution.
But well-behaved biweekly inflation could stir market speculation of 75 bp rate cuts in coming months, said Nicolas Borsoi, chief economist at Nova Futura Investimentos, although he said this was not currently his personal view.
Of 37 analysts who gave quarterly estimates in the poll, 34 saw the Selic at 11.75% at the end of 2023, while the remaining three expected 11.50% - implying a 75 basis points reduction at Copom's next meeting in December.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
(Reporting and Polling by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires and Luana Benedito in Sao Paulo; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
