The Miami Marlins picked up a series-opening win against the St. Louis Cardinals on Monday night, and now they have a chance to pick up their 50th win on the season on Tuesday.
Miami has been one of the best surprises in Major League Baseball this season, featuring an impressive rotation of young arms – headlined by today's starter – Jesus Luzardo.
The lefty is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA this season but his Fielding Independent Pitching is even better at 3.29. He takes on veteran Adam Wainwright (3-3, 7.45 ERA) who looks closer to being retired than an effective big league pitcher this season.
Let's break down the odds for this matchup and my best bet:
Cardinals vs. Marlins odds, run line and total
Cardinals vs. Marlins prediction and pick
It's impossible to trust Wainwright in this spot even though the Cardinals are 4-6 in his 10 starts this season.
The veteran is nearing the end of his career, and it's shown this season. He's allowed at least three runs in every single one of his starts, posting a 7.45 ERA and 5.47 Fielding Independent Pitching.
Luzardo, on the other hand, has been lights out as of late, allowing just five hits and striking out 18 batters in his last two starts. The young lefty has led Miami to an 11-6 record in his 17 outings this season.
The Cardinals crushed left-handed pitching last season, but that hasn't been the case in 2023. The team is 15th in OPS against lefties, a much more modest mark than you'd expect from a lineup that features Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt.
I expect the Marlins to get a few runs off of Wainwright, but Luzardo could end up tossing another gem for Miami. If this game does come down to a battle of the bullpens, the Marlins have the edge in bullpen ERA this season as well.
I'll take Miami to win on Independence Day.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
