The St. Louis Cardinals outlasted the Washington Nationals on Monday night, scoring eight runs to support Jack Flaherty (who allowed six) in an 8-6 victory.
Both of these teams are in last place in their respective divisions, but the Nats have dropped four straight while St. Louis has won three straight.
Does that change on Tuesday night?
The Nationals are sure hoping so with MacKenzie Gore (3-5, 3.74 ERA) on the mound against fellow lefty Jordan Montgomery (3-7, 3.91 ERA).
Both of these starters don't have awful numbers, but the Cardinals are just 3-11 in Montgomery's 14 starts and the Nationals are 4-10 in Gore's 14 appearances.
Something has to give on Tuesday, so let's break down the odds and my best bet for this matchup:
Cardinals vs. Nationals odds, run line and total
Cardinals vs. Nationals prediction and pick
I think there's some value in taking the Nationals to win this game considering that they have hit lefties well this season.
Washington ranks 11th in MLB in OPS against left-handed pitching – ahead of St. Louis (No. 19 in that statistic).
Sure, the Nats haven't won many of Gore's starts, but he's kept them in games, allowing more than four runs in just one of his 14 outings. It's the Washington bullpen that could become worrisome in this game if Gore only lasts into the fifth or sixth inning.
As for Montgomery, he has a lower Fielding Independent Pitching than his ERA, which signals that he's in line for some positive regression, but the Cards are just 1-11 in his last 12 starts.
St. Louis isn't giving him much run support, and I don't see that changing against arguably the Nats best starter in Gore.
Let's take a shot at the home underdog on Tuesday night.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
