By Samuel Indyk
LONDON A slowdown in global growth is likely to offset an attractively valued European equity market for the rest of 2023, but with price pressures easing, a more pronounced upturn could be on the cards for 2024, a Reuters poll found.
Equity strategists and fund managers surveyed Aug. 9-21 forecast that the pan-European benchmark STOXX 600 index would rise slightly to 455 points by the end of the year, up 1.3% from Monday's close of 448.7 points.
The STOXX 600 currently trades with a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 - its largest discount in at least 24 years, and compared with 19.1 for the S&P 500, according to Refinitiv data. Cheaper valuations could drive buyers back into Europe, according to Tomas Hildebrandt, senior portfolio manager at Evli.
"Cost pressures are abating, and the U.S. economy looks somewhat more solid," Hildebrandt said.
"European equities are cheap by looking at 12 months forward p/e. This could support the markets in a shallow recession scenario," he added, expecting the STOXX 600 to end at 480 points this year.
Not everyone is as optimistic.
Andreas Bruckner, European equity strategist at BofA Global Research, expects the drag from a weakening credit cycle to lead to a sharp loss of growth momentum in the coming months, leading to a fall in European shares.
"The growth slowdown is already visible in the euro area and China, and we expect it to increasingly show in the U.S., as the boost from strong fiscal support fades," Bruckner said.
"This is set to translate into widening risk premia and downgrades to EPS expectations."
Bruckner forecasts the STOXX 600 to fall to 390 by year-end, down around 13% from its current level, before a deeper drop to 380 points by early next year.
The index has risen 5.6% this year, versus around a 15% gain for the U.S. S&P 500, as European shares have turned from hero to zero after outperforming in the first quarter.
Back then, investors were optimistic that Europe was best placed to benefit from China's economic reopening after the end of some of the globe's strictest COVID-era restrictions.
Optimism surrounding China's recovery helped push Europe's large luxury sector to record highs, and LVMH became the first European company to surpass a market cap of $500 billion.
But China's boom never materialised, and although Europe just about avoided a technical recession in the second quarter, growth remains subdued as surging inflation, rising food prices, higher interest rates and waning confidence all took their toll.
REBOUND ON THE CARDS?
Although analysts might be somewhat cautious for the rest of 2023, poll respondents are turning more hopeful about the outlook next year, without being outright bullish.
The median view sees the STOXX 600 ending 2024 at 490 points, close to the index's previous record high of 495.46 reached in early 2022, and up around 9% from Monday's closing price.
Meanwhile, the blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index is seen ending 2023 at 4,250, the poll found, little changed from Monday's closing price of 4,224.87 points, before jumping around 9% to 4,600 by the end of next year.
Germany's DAX is seen ending the year at 15,882, up around 1.8% from Monday's closing price.
Respondents were somewhat more positive on Britain's underperforming blue-chip FTSE 100, which was expected to rise around 3.1% by the end of the year to 7,482 points, before an expected jump to a record high of 8,200 by the end of 2024.
The FTSE has been one of the weakest European benchmarks this year, as the export-heavy index faces pressure from a strong pound.
(Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)
(Reporting by Samuel Indyk; Polling by Danilo Masoni, Lucy Raitano; Additional polling by Prerana Bhat and Rahul Trivedi in BENGALURU; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
