The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released this week on Tuesday, Oct. 31, making the AP Top 25 irrelevant as we start to really get a picture of the postseason. No longer is it the AP voters that will determine the rankings but, rather, the CFP Selection Committee that will determine the Top 25 CFP rankings.
In past years, we have seen some deviation from where the AP poll has been when the College Football Playoff rankings come out. That's likely to happen again, though we don't totally know what that will entail. But it only makes sense that we'd get a bit of chaos on Saturday in Week 9 among Top 25 teams to make things even more difficult.
Oklahoma lost its first game of the season on the road at Kansas on Saturday in stunning fashion, but not nearly as stunning as North Carolina falling again to a sub-.500 team in Georgia Tech. We also saw Ohio State, Penn State, USC and many others struggle or get scared by relatively poor teams as well.
So what does this all mean for the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday? Let's find out as we project the Top 25 that the committee will unveil on Halloween.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 9: No. 25-21
25. USC Trojans
It feels dirty to think that the USC Trojans could still be a Top 25 team in the first CFP rankings after they nearly lost to a lowly Cal team on Saturday. But the committee will give the offense enough respect for that to happen, which is also largely due to a lack of other quality candidates. Given that USC has Washington and Oregon on deck, though, this ranking will be short-lived.
24. Kansas Jayhawks
We're giving Kansas their due here after the upset victory over Oklahoma. With the likes of Duke and North Carolina likely not getting into the Top 25 CFP rankings given recent results, that makes way for a Jayhawks team with an impressive win over a Top 10 team to crack into the rankings. This team is flawed, but Lance Leipold has them playing smart and hard, which makes them dangerous, especially in a wide-open Big 12 race.
23. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Because of how odd the start of the year was for Mike Gundy's team, you might not realize how well Oklahoma State has been playing of late (and that they are alive to play for the Big 12 title). Here they are, though, submitting their latest performance with a dominant 45-13 win over Cincinnati. The Pokes have beaten Kansas State, Kansas, West Virginia and now the Bearcats in their last four games and appear to be trending way up.
22. James Madison Dukes
When James Madison cracked the Top 25 last year, they immediately lost three straight games. The Dukes avoided that, but it was an uninspiring effort against Old Dominion as JMU's vaunted defense let a lackluster Monarchs offense put up 27 points on them. A win is a win and Curt Cignetti's team got the win to remain undefeated. But JMU definitely news to tighten up if they want to keep that up.
21. UCLA Bruins
It might only read as a 12-point victory on the scoreboard, but if not for some sloppy offense in the first half from the Bruins, it would've been much more heavily in favor of Chip Kelly's team against Colorado. UCLA completely dominated the action and made life hell for Shedeur Sanders. It was in impressive defensive effort that should earn the Bruins a Top 25 ranking.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 9: No. 20-16
20. Tulane Green Wave
Tulane has been flirting with disaster for a couple of weeks now but the name of the game is winning football games, and the Green Wave have done that in every game but one this season, which was against Ole Miss with Michael Pratt out injured. They barely escaped Rice with a two-point win this week after edging past North Texas a week ago. But the finishing stretch of their schedule before a finale against UTSA should set them up well.
19. Utah Utes
Without Cam Rising, there's no question that Utah is substantially lesser of a team than they would be with their QB at the helm. We saw that against Oregon this week as the offense was just lifeless. And yet, the Utes' only two losses came against Top 10 teams and they have several quality wins to their credit as well. It's hard to see this team not being inside the Top 20 with the way the year has played out.
18. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee came out of the loss to Alabama last week with a sour taste in its mouth and we wondered how they'd handle a feisty Kentucky team. The defense was not up to par as the Wildcats move the ball well, but credit to Josh Heupel's offense, Joe Milton included, for stepping up and delivering. It was only a six-point win, but it was an important one for the Vols for several reasons, not the least of which is keeping them ranked.
17. Air Force Falcons
It was a snowy night in Fort Collins with Air Force on the road at Colorado State and the Falcons had some trouble getting off the runway. Once they did, though, they once again proved that they were the clearly superior team on the field as they notched a 30-13 win. The Falcons are still streaking as one of just eight remaining undefeated teams in college football.
16. Louisville Cardinals
After Louisville's undefeated season ended shockingly at Pitt before Jeff Brohm's team went into the bye week, we wondered how they'd respond in a Top 25 matchup with Duke. The answer was well. The defense blanked the Blue Devils and they moved the ball consistently well enough to get a 23-0 win at home on Saturday. It was a dominant effort and another feather in the cap for the Cardinals this season.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 9: No. 15-11
15. Missouri Tigers
Missouri remains one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season but they've more than earned their keep. The Tigers one loss came against LSU while they have a win over Kansas State and blowout victories over Kentucky and South Carolina to their credit. They'll have the opportunity to cause mass chaos next week, however, when they head to Athens to face Georgia.
14. LSU Tigers
Ahead of a huge matchup against Alabama looming for next week, LSU was on the bye this week. Jayden Daniels is putting up video-game numbers this season at the helm of arguable the best offense in college football. They need it though with how leaky the defense has been. Still, if they can get opponents into a shootout, they are live to win every game they play with how powerful and potent the offense has been.
13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame fans have to be watching the Irish beat the brakes off of a Pitt team on Saturday and think about what might've been. Had they gotten past Ohio State (or had 11 men on the field on the final play) or not let down against Louisville, they could be a legit Playoff contender. They'll be on the outside looking in now, but this is a team that looks capable of competing with most anyone in the country.
12. Ole Miss Rebels
It's been such a strange ride for Ole Miss to this point in the season but the Rebels moved to 7-1 with a win over Vanderbilt. I'm still not sure we know just how good Lane Kiffin's team is given the mixed results we've seen from them, but a win over LSU and Tulane while playing Alabama close enough should earn them plenty of respect from the CFP Selection Committee.
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
There's no choice but to have Penn State outside of the Top 10. Yes, the Nittany Lions were dominant to start the season. But after watching the offense look hapless against the best team James Franklin's group has faced followed by the defense allowing Indiana to move the ball against them, something the Hoosiers haven't been capable of all year. Yes, the team has just one loss, but the ceiling seems incredibly defined.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 9: No. 10-9
10. Oklahoma Sooners
After Brent Venables' Sooners got past the rival Texas Longhorns in Red River, everyone looking at Oklahoma's schedule saw a path to a 12-0 regular season. Someone who didn't see that was Kansas Jayhawks head coach Lance Leipold, and he let Boomer know that on Saturday in Lawrence.
Even with Jalon Daniels out of action once again as he continues to deal with a back injury, Kansas put forth a spirited two-way effort, raising questions about the Oklahoma defense (particularly against the run) and forcing Dillon Gabriel into one of his worst games of the year.
The end result was a 38-33 thriller with Kansas pulling off the upset. Now, the Sooners will fall behind Texas despite the head-to-head win and will have to run the table in the regular season and the Big 12 Championship Game just to have a chance of ending up returning to the College Football Playoff.
9. Oregon State Beavers (Playing at Arizona)
There is certainly not a less-publicized Top 10 team in college football than the Oregon State Beavers, but Jonathan Smith's team has more than earned their keep to get to this point and should very easily earn a spot well inside the Top 10 of the initial CFP rankings as well.
On Saturday night in Week 9, though, the Beavs were giving us a little Pac-12 After Dark as they went on the road to face an upstart Arizona Wildcats team that has been surging and causing problems for teams in the conference as of late. Case in point, the Wildcats blew out a Washington State team that handed Oregon State its lone loss of the season.
With wins over UCLA and Utah to their credit, though, there is no questioning the validity of the Beavers and their well-balanced approach on both sides of the ball.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 9: No. 8-7
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama had the week off but they have been steadily climbing up the AP Top 25 since the loss to Texas and some lackluster showings earlier in the season. That also has reflected the eye test for the Crimson Tide as well. There were legitimate worries early in the season about Jalen Milroe and this offense, but they've seemingly started to find their groove, even if they're an imperfect football team.
The truth is, though, there might not be a perfect team this year. So why not trust Nick Saban and the requisite talent on the roster in Tuscaloosa?
Coming out of the bye, though, Alabama will see its biggest road block on its hopeful path to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game as they face the rival LSU Tigers in Bryant-Denney. If the Tide can keep pace with the high-octane Tigers offense, their path to the Playoff becomes pretty clear: Beat Georgia in Atlanta.
7. Oregon Ducks
If you thought that the Oregon Ducks might go on the road to the always-difficult Rice Eccles Stadium and have some trouble with the frisky Utah Utes, you were absolutely wrong. Despite facing one of the best defenses in the country on the road, Bo Nix and Bucky Irving diced up the Utes while the Ducks defense offered up a big-time and suffocating performance that all but blanked Bryson Barnes and the Utah offense.
Despite having the loss to Washington (on the road, mind you) working against them right now, the fact of the matter is that Oregon has looked the part of the best and most consistent team in the Pac-12. They've dominated competition outside of the Huskies. When the Top 25 is released, the expectation should be that the Ducks will be firmly in the Top 10 and within striking distance of the Top 4 in the chance that they get a rematch in Vegas and can come out on top that time around.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 9: No. 6-5
6. Washington Huskies
Washington certainly hasn't been making it easy on themselves over the past couple of weeks. The Huskies found themselves in a surprising dogfight a week ago against Arizona State as the high-powered offense with Michael Penix Jr. at the helm failed to account for a touchdown. This week, it was an entirely different type of struggle as the Kalen DeBoer's team got into a surprising shootout with the Stanford Cardinal.
Penix and the Washington offense ultimately had enough as he threw for four touchdowns on the night, though he gave everyone a scare with a late fourth-quarter interception thrown into the end zone. However, there should be warranted concern about this team as they head into the final month of the season. Injuries appear to be taking their toll on both sides of the ball for this team and they might get clipped before they make it to Vegas for the Pac-12 Championship Game.
5. Texas Longhorns
Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns entered this game without starting quarterback Quinn Ewers available after he suffered a shoulder injury in the narrow win over Houston last week. That, however, appeared to galvanize Texas on both sides of the ball as Maalik Murphy got the start at the helm of the offense.
Murphy was definitely hit or miss throughout the day, but his highs were quite impressive, including a pair of touchdown throws. But with Jonathan Brooks continuing to look like a star workhorse and the defense holding BYU to under 300 yards of total offense while forcing three turnovers, the Longhorns cruised to the 35-6 win.
With Texas' only loss coming to another Top 10 team in Oklahoma while also having a road win at 7-1 Alabama, I think the committee vaults them ahead of Washington in the Top 25.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 9: No. 4-3
4. Florida State Seminoles
For reasons that, frankly, remain unclear to me, there were some people putting Florida State on upset alert this week as they went on the road to play Wake Forest. That seemed silly from the moment that take was unleashed. And it only looked more so as the game went on from the Seminoles with Jordan Travis, in the midst of a remarkably good 2023 campaign already, had arguably his best game of the season.
Travis finished the game throwing for 359 yards and three touchdowns, adding a rushing score as well. The playmakers showed up big too as Keon Coleman hauled in two scores and Trey Benson added 155 yards of offense and a pair of touchdowns as well. It was the best game we've seen from Mike Norvell's team from top-to-bottom in a while, and bodes well for the Noles as they remain firmly in the ACC driver's seat.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes
Once again, it wasn't pretty for the Ohio State Buckeyes, but the resumé that the Playoff Selection Committee will be looking for Ryan Day's team is undeniable at this point.
Playing at Camp Randall in Madison on Saturday night, it was the same refrain for the OSU offense that we've seen over the past few weeks. The offense was hit-or-miss, particularly Kyle McCord, when Marvin Harrison Jr. wasn't the target. Perhaps the silver lining was the rushing attack finding life for the first time in a while with TreVeyon Henderson returning, but the defense again was the calling card.
You still wonder how Ohio State will measure up on the field against a team like Michigan or another viable national championship contender, but wins over Notre Dame and Penn State will bolster the Buckeyes comfortably in the Top 4 when the first CFP rankings are revealed.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 9: No. 2-1
2. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan had the week off, so they obviously weren't in the news…
Or, you know, everything in the college football news over the week involved the Wolverines and the sign-stealing/cheating scandal that has rocked the sport of late. The more information that comes out regarding the allegations against Jim Harbaugh's program and his staff, analyst Connor Stalions specifically, looks worse and worse for the program. It feels like the ultimate conclusion is Harbaugh's departure after this season and likely more penalties coming for Michigan somewhere down the line.
For now, however, there's no denying how dominant the Wolverines have been this season. The level of competition hasn't been great, but Michigan has dominated that competition wholly and thoroughly on both sides of the ball. They'll get their first major test in two weeks on the road at Penn State.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
If the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party was any indication, the Georgia Bulldogs might do a whole lot more than just survive with Brock Bowers sidelined with an ankle injury.
Kirby Smart walked the Dawgs down to Jacksonville for the rivalry matchup against Florida in Week 9 and completely dominated the proceedings. Though the Gators put 20 on the scoreboard, two of those scores came when the game was out of reach – it was arguably the best defensive performance from UGA this season. Carson Beck also answered the call, as did the offense as a whole, cruising to a 43-20 victory.
For me, there was a chance that the College Football Playoff Selection Committee might put Michigan ahead of Georgia in the initial Top 25 rankings. After seeing this performance from the reigning back-to-back national champions, though, the Bulldogs should start of the CFP rankings on Thursday ranked No. 1.
