Predicting the preseason AP Top 25 college football rankings for 2023 with Alabama nearly out of the Top 5, Florida State and USC surging, and more.
The Georgia Bulldogs are entering a quest for a 3-peat, Caleb Williams is looking for Playoff glory with the USC Trojans as he aims to become the second-ever two-time Heisman Trophy winner, and that's just the tip of the iceberg for the upcoming 2023 college football season that is set to begin in just under seven weeks time.
Week 0 can't get here soon enough, but before we get to that point, the 2023 college football rankings are going to start pouring in. All eyes will certainly be peeled looking for the preseason AP Top 25 poll, which is set to be released on Aug. 15.
We have some time until then, but we also don't have to wait. Based on what we know about the best college football teams in the country for the forthcoming 2023 season coupled with the history of AP Top 25 voters and preseason polls, we're going through and projecting what the college football rankings will look like going into the year.
College football rankings 2023, projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 25-21
25. Kentucky Wildcats (2022 record: 7-6)
Kentucky has been in the business of reshaping the offense at virtually every level this offseason, perhaps most notably replacing Will Levis with NC State transfer Devin Leary while Liam Coen returned as offensive coordinator. They should be much more prolific after Mark Stoops' team was outside of the Top 100 in scoring last season, which could make a world of difference.
24. UTSA Roadrunners (2022 record: 11-3)
Losing Zakhari Franklin late in the transfer portal was a tough blow for the Roadrunners. But veteran quarterback Frank Harris is back for a seventh (you read that right) season to lead UTSA and an offense that still has plenty of firepower left. Jeff Traylor has built this program well in recent years and, though the jump to the AAC could be tough, they should still be primed for plenty of success.
23. Iowa Hawkeyes (2022 record: 8-5)
Cade McNamara transferring into Iowa should help elevate the quarterback play and, subsequently, the Hawkeyes offense for the 2023 season. That's a big step forward, and Kirk Ferentz's program has proven that they will surely have a top-tier defense once more.
But really, there's only one question on anyone's mind watching Iowa: Can Brian Ferentz's offense eclipse the 25.0 ppg mark this season?
22. Oregon State Beavers (2022 record: 10-3)
Much of the attention regarding Oregon State will be put on former Clemson quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei joining the program, but the big key for the Beavs is one of the college football's best offensive lines and stud running back Damien Martinez. Having said that, a tough schedule and a defense that lost arguably its best playmakers from last season could prove problematic for Jonathan Smith after a 10-win campaign.
21. Ole Miss Rebels (2022 record: 8-5)
Lane Kiffin earned his Portal King moniker this offseason by bringing in competition for Jaxson Dart, who underwhelmed a year ago, at quarterback with Spencer Sanders and Walker Howard coming to Ole Miss. The offense should be quite good, especially if a receiver can step up now that Jonathan Mingo is gone, but the big hope is that former Alabama DC Pete Golding can help the defense make notable strides.
College football rankings 2023, projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 20-16
20. Tulane Green Wave (2022 record: 12-2)
There was substantial interest in Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt in the transfer portal, but the veteran starter elected to remain with the Green Wave, a massive win for Willie Fritz and his program. However, to repeat their dream campaign from a year ago, it will take quite a bit with Tyjae Spears and Tulane's leading playmakers on offense gone and a defense that must replace its four leading tacklers from the 2022 season.
19. Texas Tech Red Raiders (2022 record: 8-5)
Lurking in the shadows, Texas Tech has emerged as a preseason sleeper in the college football world, but for good reason. Tyler Shough showed some good things under Joey McGuire last season and should progress further, but the Red Raiders — against the weight of the program's history — will rely on their defense a great deal as they return eight starters, even with Tyree Wilson now gone.
18. North Carolina Tar Heels (2022 record: 9-5)
Drake Maye comes into the season as one of the Heisman favorites behind Williams, but the Tar Heels have a ton of changes to contend with. Not only does Maye have two transfers, Nate McCollum and spring standout Devontez Walker, likely to lead the receiving corps, but a new OC with Chip Lindsey replacing Phil Longo. The biggest key for UNC on the whole, though, will be the defense taking a step forward, particularly in a new-look secondary after a busy transfer season.
17. Kansas State Wildcats (2022 record: 10-4)
Chris Klieman's Wildcats spoiled a perfect Big 12 season for TCU last year by winning the conference championship game. Now, Kansas State gets starting quarterback Will Howard back in the mix and have replacements ready for Deuce Vaughn, most inrtriguingly with Florida State transfer Treshaun Ward joining the fray. The defense has also replaced big losses, but the secondary will be the focal point early.
16. Utah Utes (2022 record: 10-4)
Utah might've been higher in the projected AP Top 25 if not for Cameron Rising's availability to start the season being in question as he returns from a torn ACL. The Utes still return a great deal of talent on offense and have taken some big steps to replace some key losses on defense. At this point, though, you're doing yourself a disservice to not take a Kyle Whittingham Utah team extremely seriously.
College football rankings 2023, projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 15-11
15. TCU Horned Frogs (2022 record: 13-2)
There's no harder team to project for the 2023 season — much less project where AP voters will rank them — than TCU. Coming off the run to the natty last year, they lost eight offensive starters, not the least of which were Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston. Oh yeah, they also saw OC Garrett Riley depart. Sonny Dykes has worked the portal hard and Chandler Morris was the Week 1 starterlast year, but there are still some questions about if the Horned Frogs can sustain this success.
14. Oregon Ducks (2022 record: 10-3)
Bo Nix is back and there should be good feelings about what Dan Lanning is already working to build in Eugene. That being said, the weapons for Oregon have some uncertainty among them, but the offensive line is also replacing four starters. Let's also not forget that Kenny Dillingham is gone as OC too, though Will Stein, formerly of UTSA, looks more than capable. The defense should improve with incoming transfers and another year of Lanning helping lead the way.
13. Washington Huskies (2022 record: 11-2)
Suffice it to say it looks like Kalen DeBoer was absolutely the right hire for Washington. And he brings back a Huskies team that should be a real threat to take the Pac-12 with Michael Penix Jr. surrounded by the likes of Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. The front seven on defense looks dangerous too and the secondary improved with portal additions. Perhaps the biggest key will be surviving a sneaky tough schedule for the Huskies.
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2022 record: 9-4)
The jury is still out on Marcus Freeman's head coaching bonafides, but landing Wake Forest quarterback Sam Hartman in the portal is a big win for Notre Dame, especially as they look to inject life into a sometimes-impotent offense. The Fighting Irish defense has questions as well, particularly in the trenches, but that's less of a worry with Freeman. If Hartman elevates the passing offense, this could be a dangerous, dangerous team.
11. Tennessee Volunteers (2022 record: 11-2)
Joe Milton is the great needle-mover for Tennessee this season — it's just that the needle could move either way. The former Michigan quarterback has a cannon arm and all the physical tools in the world, but the question is if Josh Heupel's offense can rein him in to being an effective signal-caller. That will be difficult with a bevy of new weapons needing to step up. For the Vols to even hope of competing atop the SEC East, though, the defense still has strides it needs to make.
College football rankings 2023, projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 10-9
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (2022 record: 11-2)
In my own 2023 college football rankings, Penn State will be higher than this. However, I have an inclination that national voters for the AP Top 25 will value some bluer-blood or bigger-name programs will get vaulted ahead of them. Still, there is no way that James Franklin's Nittany Lions can justifiably be outside the Top 10.
Drew Allar, though unproven, represents a potentially massive upgrade over veteran JAG Sean Clifford, now on the Packers, at quarterback as the No. 1 QB and No. 3 overall player from the 2022 recruiting cycle. He's protected with an elite O-line and some real weapons in Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen and Kent State transfer receiver Dante Cephas.
Even with all that, the defense could be the bigger story. This might be the best linebacker corps in the country, headlined by Abdul Carter, while the secondary will barely notice the loss of Joey Porter Jr., which says quite a bit about the level of talent in Happy Valley on that side of the ball.
9. Clemson Tigers (2022 record: 11-3)
Even when everyone was writing Dabo Swinney and Clemson off amid perceived struggles, the Tigers still ended up with 11 wins last season. But those struggles sparked a necessary change for this program, one that could elevate them immensely moving forward.
The Tigers hired offensive coordinator Garrett Riley away from TCU to help spark the offense, now firmly in the hands of Cade Klubnik, who took over sporadically for now-Oregon State QB D.J. Uiagalelei a year ago. Will Shipley is still a weapon and, while the receivers still need to prove themselves, playing in Riley's Air-Raid approach could take them to a new level.
As for the defense, it's rinse-and-repeat as always for Clemson. Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and the linebacker corps are lethal, the secondary seems primed to take a step forward, and the defensive front is loaded with elite talent and just as much depth. If the offense can take the expected step forward, rest assured the defense is set to do its job.
College football rankings 2023, projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 8
8. Texas Longhorns (2022 record: 8-5)
The preseason AP Top 25 and the Texas Longhorns hype train are more of a classic duo than Harry and Sally (you know, that couple who met). But the big change in the 2023 season might be that it's wholly warranted for Steve Sarkisian's team.
Quinn Ewers is the unquestioned starter and appears ready to make a leap in consistency, notably bulking up this offseason to better protect against injuries. The weapons around him, even with Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson gone, are absurd with Xavier Worthy, AD Mitchell, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Cedric Baxter and more. If the O-line holds up, this could be a top 3 offense in college football.
Texas should see an improved defense, even after the group was actually underrated a year ago. They are experienced at all three levels, especially with Jalen Catalon and Gavin Holmes transferring into the secondary. If the offense delivers on its unreal potential, the defense won't cost the Longhorns many (if any) games.
7. LSU Tigers (2022 record: 10-4)
Say what you will about his dancing or accent work, but Brian Kelly can coach a damn good football team. After a 10-win season that exceeded expectations in year one, the sophomore season for the head coach at LSU could yield even bigger results.
Jayden Daniels is back and his best moments in 2022 were among the best of anyone in the sport. Consistency will be the key, but that should be helped by an elite receiver room headlined by potential first-rounder Malik Nabers. This offense will take a step forward if Daniels does so himself.
And that's huge because this defense could be special. Harold Perkins Jr. is arguably the nation's best pass rusher, but he's joined by Maason Smith and Mekhi Wingon in the front seven to create a formidable force. If the secondary can come along and live up to its talent, the results could make the Tigers a playoff contender.
College football rankings 2023, projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 6-5
6. Ohio State Buckeyes (2022 record: 11-2)
Things are going to be tricky outside of the Top 2 in the initial college football rankings and Ohio State is a posterchild for that.
Kyle McCord, though he's not yet been named the starter, seems likely to replace C.J. Stroud at the helm of an offense with the best collections of weapons in college football, not the least of which is Marvin Harrison Jr., who is joined by Emeka Egbuka, Julian Fleming, TreVeyon Henderson, and several others. The offensive line and inexperienced quarterback, however, create some potential stumbling blocks.
Led by J.T. Tumoloau and Jack Sawyer up front, the pass rush should be a weapon for the Buckeyes in the 2023 season, but they need help from the back seven. The secondary, specifically, needs to prove it can handle elite competition, something it frankly didn't do a good job of last season.
There are plenty of questions, but Ryan Day hasn't given us many reasons to question that he'll deliver results in Columbus.
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (2022 record: 11-2)
When Alabama fans were pining for Nick Saban to move on from Bill O'Brien and Pete Golding, they were probably hoping for bigger-name replacements (See: Upgrades) at the coordinator spots, which it remains to be seen if Tommy Rees and Kevin Steele are that.
Normally, that would be the biggest story for the Crimson Tide, but the questions at quarterback overshadow that. Alabama should have one of the best offensive lines in the sport and the weapons are enticing. Yet, no one from Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson or late transfer addition Tyler Buchner has a track record to prove they're the guy. That quarterback decision and the subsequent performance on the field is the most vital aspect of Alabama's offense and how it performs.
Steele has a much easier task in his new role as the Crimson Tide defense should be a monster, even with Will Anderson Jr. departing. Dallas Turner is a star in the making, freshman Caleb Downs could be one of the best newcomers in the country, and the unit is simply loaded at every level. It would be a failure on the new DC's part if this group doesn't end up as one of college football's best.
College football rankings 2023, projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 4
4. USC Trojans (2022 record: 11-3)
Obviously, you start with the Caleb Williams-Lincoln Riley connection when talking about this USC team. The Trojans bring back the reigning Heisman winner and that's where it starts.
Even with losing Travis Dye and Jordan Addison, Riley has seemingly replaced them beautifully in the portal with former South Carolina back MarShawn Lloyd and former Arizona star Dorian Singer. Moreover, the offensive line is experienced in front of Williams. When you combine all that with the never-a-year-off track record of Riley's offense, the points should come in bunches.
Will that be the case for opposing offenses, though? That's the big question after the USC defense was abysmal last season. Georgia transfer Bear Alexander and Texas A&M transfer Anthony Lucas could be game-changers, the same of which is true of Oklahoma State transfer Mason Cobb at linebacker. If there is any step forward from Alex Grinch's unit, which there's reason to believe there will be, USC is going to be one of the top contenders in the nation.
3. Florida State Seminoles (2022 record: 10-3)
There were early worries about Mike Norvell from the outside looking in, but the head coach has Florida State on the precipice of returning to glory and we'll see that right away.
Jordan Travis made massive strides last season and is a dark-horse Heisman contender, but he's joined by a litany of high-end playmakers, including newcomer Jaheim Bell, Trey Benson, Johnny Wilson and late addition Keon Coleman, who could be a huge asset for the offense. Expect the Seminoles to put up points in bunches throughout the year against virtually any defense with all the ways they can attack.
The headliner on defense is Jared Verse, but he's just the face to put with what should be a dominant group up front. The linebacking corps has talent, as does the secondary. But the big key for FSU will be staying healthy in the back seven as the depth at those positions is one of the few concerns abou the Noles in the 2023 season.
College football rankings 2023, projected preseason AP Top 25: No. 2
2. Michigan Wolverines (2022 record: 13-1)
Winning a game in the College Football Playoff is the next step for Jim Harbaugh to take at Michigan after back-to-back seasons with wins over Ohio State and berths in the CFP. And he has a team that could get him to the hurdle before him and the Wolverines.
J.J. McCarthy returns with massive expectations put upon his shoulders after a first season as the starter with elite flashes but lacking consistency. Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards will still be stalwarts for the offense in the backfield and the offensive line and receivers should be quite solid. The room for improvement very much is on the quarterback and him making a leap.
As for the defense, good luck matching up with this group. Nebraska transfer Ernest Hausmann gives Michigan a truly elite group of linebackers and the front seven seems dangerous as a whole. There is also a deep and talented secondary behind them, which makes for the total package that should be the driving force for the Wolverines independent of how much the offense elevates.
1. Georgia Bulldogs (2022 record: 15-0)
Is it possible that Kirby Smart led Georgia to back-to-back national championships while it was a rebuilding year for the Bulldogs in 2022? That might actually be the case, which is a truly terrifying proposition for the rest of the country.
Sure, there are big changes with Carson Beck (likely) taking over for Stetson Bennett and Mike Bobo stepping back in as OC with Todd Monken heading for the Ravens. But the weapons are numerous with Brock Bowers, Arian Smith, Ladd McConkey, Dominic Lovett and more while the O-line could challenge for the Joe Moore Award this season.
Then there's the always potent defense coming from Athens, which isn't changing this season. Even with Bear Alexander shocking the system a bit with his decision to transfer, the Dawgs have a ton of talent that should be able to make a big impact with 5-stars or high-end players at every level, not the least of which are potential All-Americans Mykel Williams, Smael Mondon, and Malaki Starks, among others.
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