The College Football Playoff race and even just the Top 25 college football rankings that the CFP Selection Committee will unveil for Week 13 just got a whole lot more intriguing after a wild Saturday throughout the country.
On one hand, we saw several Playoff contenders seemingly have their backs against the wall in tough road matchups on Saturday with Washington going to the wire with Oregon State, Louisville doing the same with Miami, Texas having early trouble at Iowa State, and perhaps most shockingly with Michigan holding on against Maryland.
The flip side of that, however, was other College Football Playoff hopefuls like Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon taking care of business. Florida State did the same too, but at the cost of a season-defining injury to Jordan Travis.
So what does that mean for the Top 25 college football rankings that the CFP committee will reveal on Tuesday? Let's find out as we take a look at our latest projections after Tennessee, UNC, Utah, and Kansas all fall out of the CFP rankings.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 12: No. 25-21
25. Clemson Tigers
Look, I didn't expect Clemson to find its way back into the Top 25, but here we are. The Tigers have been cooking a bit of late after it looked like the wheels might be falling off with back-to-back losses to Miami and NC State. On Saturday, they upended UNC, previously ranked No. 20, in an overall dominant defensive effort to shut down a potent Tar Heels offense. Even with four losses, wins over Notre Dame and UNC along with their brand is enough to get them into the back of the Top 25.
24. Toledo Rockets
One of several Group of 5 newcomers in the latest CFP Top 25 projections, the Toledo Rockets are absolutely deserving. At 10-1 behind DeQuan Finn, Jason Candle's team had to come from behind to topple Bowling Green in MACtion this past week, but they are heading to the conference championship game yet again and look the part of one of the best G5 teams in college football.
23. SMU Mustangs
In a battle for a possible spot in the AAC Championship Game, the SMU Mustangs came up big on the road against Memphis. Though the Tigers poked some holes in what has been a great SMU defense this season, Preston Ston and LJ Johnson Jr. had every answer needed. They held off a late attempt at a rally from Memphis to ultimately secure the 38-34 win and move to 9-2 on the season, now only needing a win at home against Navy next week to play for the AAC crown.
22. Liberty Flames
With teams like Tennessee, North Carolina, Utah and Kansas losing this week, I'm not sure what excuse the Selection Committee has at this point to keep undefeated Liberty outside of the Top 25. The Flames completely worked lowly UMass on Saturday and, though their schedule has been nothing impressive to this point, they've dominated behind Kaidon Salter in Jamey Chadwell's offense. It's time; rank the Flames.
21. Tulane Green Wave
For the first time in literally a month, Tulane didn't win a one-possession game in Week 12! The Green Wave defense went on the road to FAU and submitted one of its best performances in quite a while to hold the Owls to just eight points, which came in the fourth quarter. Behind Michael Pratt's three scores, Tulane notched a 24-8 victory and remains in the driver's seat for both the AAC title and a spot in a New Year's Six game.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 12: No. 20-16
20. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Many wondered how Mike Gundy's team would respond after getting their doors blown off by UCF a week ago. And it looked as if Oklahoma State might just implode as they trailed Houston on the road early on Saturday. Ollie Gordon II and Alan Bowman got things rolling in the second half, outscoring the Cougars 24-7 in the final two frames, to pick up the 43-30 win. The Pokes are still the favorites to make it to Arlington for the Big 12 Championship Game, but they'll have to get past BYU next week in Stillwater to secure that spot.
19. Kansas State Wildcats
Even though neither Jalon Daniels nor Jason Bean were able to go for rival Kansas, the Kansas State Wildcats got into a war with their Big 12 rivals on Saturday night. They trailed by 11 points early in the second half, but Will Howard, DJ Giddens and the K-State defense stepped up hugely to close out the game on a 14-0 run and secure the 31-27 win. The Wildcats have an outside shot at playing for a Big 12 title and this win keeps that dream intact.
18. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
In all honesty, it feels like the collective consciousness of college football that doesn't reside in South Bend has all but forgotten about Notre Dame at this point. But the Irish were back in action on Saturday, taking on an ailing Wake Forest team. Sam Hartman diced them up for 277 yards and four touchdowns while the defense was suffocating, leading to a resounding 45-7 win. The Irish are another team still in the mix for a New Year's Six game, but they'll have to handle Stanford on the road next week to remain in the mix.
17. Arizona Wildcats
Doubt them if you dare, but Jedd Fisch's Arizona Wildcats are absolutely cooking right now, which Utah found out the hard way in Tucscon on Saturday. Arizona jumped all over the Utes to build a 28-0 lead early in the second quarter and never looked back. Noah Fifita continues to look like a star after taking over at quarterback midseason and now the Wildcats are lurking for a New Year's Six bid as they're on track to finish the regular season at 9-3.
16. Iowa Hawkeyes
It's never pretty for Iowa and making this a Top 20 team based on the eye test still doesn't feel right. But even without Cooper DeJean on Saturday as they hosted an Illinois team that had been rolling on offense, Kirk Ferentz's team and Phil Parker's defense found a way to win, 15-13, in Iowa City. They'll finish up the regular season next week in Lincoln, but they could cause real chaos in two weeks in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game against either Michigan or Ohio State – but don't hold your breath on that one.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 12: No. 15-11
15. Oregon State Beavers
Let's be real, it'd be disingenuous to knock Jonathan Smith's Beavers too much after the effort they put forth in Corvallis against a Top 5 team in the country. Oregon State fought tooth and nail against a great team but came up just short in a dogfight. This team has three losses, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a truly bad one, especially since the Wazzu loss was back when the Cougs were healthy and cooking.
14. LSU Tigers
With all due respect to Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr., Jayden Daniels should be the Heisman Trophy winner. If the award is to honor the peak of individual excellence, no one has been more electric than the LSU quarterback, and he put on another show in Baton Rouge on Saturday night, albeit against Georgia State. Daniels had five first-half touchdowns, added onto that in the second half, and just ran the Panthers off of the field in a blowout win for the Tigers.
13. Oklahoma Sooners
Still alive for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game if they can get some help, the Sooners almost squandered that on Saturday in Provo as they went on the road to face a struggling BYU team. The Cougars ran all over Oklahoma, though, and kept themselves in the fight despite committing three turnovers. OU scored on a beastly 16-yard Gavin Sawchuk run in the fourth quarter to win, 31-24, but it was anything but pretty from Brent Venables' team.
12. Ole Miss Rebels
If you were watching the first half of Ole Miss hosting UL Monroe, you were probably wondering what the hell was going on when Lane Kiffin's team went into halftime up just 7-3. Thankfully for the overall mental health of Oxford, the Rebels got cooking in the second half with Jaxson Dart throwing three touchdown passes and securing the 35-3 win. Ole Miss is still alive for the New Year's Six, but they'll need to be better in the Egg Bowl next week to make sure the hopes keep a pulse.
11. Penn State Nittany Lions
On the heels of the loss to Michigan last week, completing the James Franklin signature double of dominating the majority of the Big Ten but losing to the Wolverines and Ohio State, Penn State welcomed Rutgers to town. It was a rock fight in Happy Valley but the Nittany Lions defense once again proved its merit as it completely stifled the Scarlet Knights. The run game then helped carry the load. However, Drew Allar left this game with an injury, which is something to monitor moving forward for PSU, even if their Big Ten or CFP dreams died last week.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 12: No. 10-9
10. Louisville Cardinals
With the way that the line for Louisville visiting Miami on Saturday moved throughout the week, we could've surmised that this game was going to be a bit of a coin-flip. And it was certainly that, though things devolving into a shootout was not necessarily what many expected given how good both the Cardinals and Hurricanes defenses have been throughout the 2023 season.
Yet, it was a back-and-forth affair down in Hard Rock Stadium in Week 12 as both Jack Plummer and Tyler Van Dyke put up big passing numbers, as did every running back who saw the field. After Louisville outscored Miami 15-3 in the fourth quarter, though, they had a 38-31 lead in the waning minutes. The U had several chances to tie it up but came up short, including on a game-ending Hail Mary attempt that was caught, but short of the end zone after a tip drill.
Louisville survives and so do the Cardinals' slim CFP hopes as well. And now their chances of winning the ACC have further increased after a brutal injury for Florida State that puts their outlook into question.
9. Missouri Tigers
On the heels of dismantling Tennessee last week and playing Georgia closely the week prior, there was almost no one who expected that Missouri would find itself in any kind of trouble against Florida, especially in Columbia on Saturday night. With how the Gators defense had looked of late, you had to believe that the Tigers hanging 50 on Billy Napier's team was the more likely option.
Instead, we got into a shootout between the SEC East foes and, after Florida kicked a go-ahead field goal with 1:36 remaining, it looked as if Mizzou might go down and take its third loss of the season. But Brady Cook showed off his clutch gene with some big-time throws to set up a game-winner from the Thiccer Kicker, Harrison Mevis, and secure the win. Missouri is now very much in line for a New Year's Six bid, especially with only struggling Arkansas remaining on their schedule and standing between Eli Drinkwitz and a 10-win campaign.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 12: No. 8-7
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
Not that we expected anything different from Alabama hosting FCS Chattanooga the week before the Iron Bowl, but the Crimson Tide gave the Mocs the absolute work on Saturday in Tuscaloosa.
Just look anywhere in the box score and it was a monster day for Nick Saban's team. Jalen Milroe might actually be disappointed with only three touchdowns (all passing) to his credit on the day, but Jase McClelland, Roydell Williams, Justice Haynes and Richard Young all found the end zone on the ground. Heck, even backup quarterback Ty Simpson had a 78-yard run. Meanwhile, Chattanooga's lone touchdown came on a 40-yard run in the second quarter when the Mocs already trailed by 31.
Obviously, there's not a whole lot to glean from this game given the severe talent gap. Even still, Alabama has now won nine consecutive games and, if they get past rival Auburn – a team that lost in a stunner to New Mexico State on Saturday – next week, all that stands in their way of the Playoff is Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
7. Texas Longhorns
There were two major questions coming into Week 12 for the Texas Longhorns. First, how good and believable was the Iowa State team they were going on the road to face after the Cyclones had been streaking and making noise in the Big 12 of late? Second, how would the offense look after the loss of star running back Jonathan Brooks last week to a torn ACL?
If you just looked at the scoreboard, you might think that Iowa State is damn good and that the Texas offense struggled, especially early. However, the Longhorns moved the ball consistently but couldn't get out of their own way early with a number of touchdown-negating or extremely costly penalties that really hurt them in a big way. Even still, the defense showed up big in the second half, as did Quinn Ewers and C.J. Baxter, for Texas to pull away and move one step closer to the Big 12 Championship Game.
That spot isn't locked up thanks to the head-to-head loss to Oklahoma, but the Longhorns should be heading to Arlington and looking for some help to get into the Playoff.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 12: No. 6-5
6. Oregon Ducks
Not that anyone expected anything different, but Bo Nix and the Oregon Ducks had little issue steamrolling one of the bottom-feeders in the Pac-12 this season, the Arizona State Sun Devils.
Nix torched his former offensive coordinator's team right away, throwing for six touchdowns in the first half alone to give the Ducks a commanding 42-0 lead. They put it in cruise control for the final 30 minutes of action as they were actually outscored 13-7 in the second half, but it was not nearly enough as Oregon moved to 10-1 on the season.
The only thing standing between a rematch between the Ducks and Washington, who handed Dan Lanning's team their one defeat on the year to this point, in the Pac-12 Championship Game is the matchup between Oregon and Oregon State in Eugene next week. With the way things are rolling for the Ducks right now, though, it's hard to imagine them dropping that contest – or maybe even losing to Washington again either.
5. Florida State Seminoles
After stunningly falling behind 13-0 early against North Alabama, Florida State heartily clawed back into the game with a big offensive effort to move to 11-0 on the season. But the result was not the big story in the game as FSU quarterback Jordan Travis left in the first half after suffering what appeared to be a broken ankle or leg. He was put into an air cast on the field and then carted off and taken out of the stadium in an ambulance.
Just based on what we saw in the game, Travis is surely done for the season and his career with the Seminoles, which is just a damn shame. He's been a phenomenal quarterback and he deserved to lead FSU on its continued push to the College Football Playoff.
Now, the Noles will play their rivalry matchup against Florida next week and the ACC Championship Game against Louisville with backup Tate Rodemaker at the helm. Whether or not they can survive that and still make the CFP remains to be seen.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 12: No. 4-3
4. Washington Huskies
Finally, as fans have been hoping for over the past couple of weeks now, the Washington Huskies crack the Top 4 and would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended today. And it's well deserved.
It was a gritty night in Corvallis with rain and cold coming down on the action against Oregon State, a team that was ranked No. 11 coming into the week. The Beavers fell behind 22-10 going into halftime with D.J. Uiagalelei throwing two picks and Michael Penix Jr. doing enough to answer in return. But the Huskies offense stalled in the second half, allowing Oregon State to claw their way back and have the ball down two late in the fourth quarter with a chance to win.
Washington's defense came up with a huge stop and, after a big first down, that was enough to secure the 22-10 victory. The season doesn't end today, though, and Washington will have to survive twice more, once in the Apple Cup and in the Pac-12 Championship Game, a rematch with Oregon.
3. Michigan Wolverines
We had long wondered if the Michigan sign-stealing scandal, the resulting Jim Harbaugh suspension, and an overall lacking strength of schedule would catch up to the Wolverines at any point this season, especially over their tough final stretch of the year in the last three games. They dominated Penn State with defense and their rushing attack last week, but on Saturday against Maryland on the road, we saw J.J. McCarthy and his team look exceptionally mortal.
McCarthy once again struggled or wasn't given many opportunities to control the action through the air. Blake Corum had 94 yards and two scores but that came on 28 carries, showing a bit of inefficiency. Meanwhile, the pass defense got burned a time or two to give Michigan a real upset scare. Thanks to two Taulia Tagovailoa interceptions, they survived and picked up the 31-24 win, but the vibes have certainly been better as they head into the crucial matchup with Ohio State next Saturday.
Projected Top 25 College Football Playoff rankings after Week 12: No. 2-1
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Unlike the rival Wolverines, the week before The Game was anything but a sweat for the Ohio State Buckeyes – or at least that's the way the final score played out.
Kyle McCord, once again, had a relatively slow start for the Buckeyes as the offense was limited to five possessions in the first half, which resulted in an opening-drive touchdown run for TreVeyon Henderson, two failures to convert in the red zone that ended in field goals, one punt, and then six plays for nine yards that led into halftime.
The good news is that OSU came out of the locker room on fire with a 75-yard score from Henderson, a fumble on Minnsota's first play of the second half, and a Marvin Harrison Jr. touchdown reception from four yards out that gave Ohio State a 27-0 lead. The defense continued to make life hell for the Gophers and cruised to a 37-3 win. It wasn't an overwhelmingly great effort from the Buckeyes, but it was more than dominant enough to get another convincing win.
1. Georgia Bulldogs
The third consecutive ranked opponent for Kirby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs, another feather in the cap for the defending back-to-back national champions.
Tennessee scored on the first play of the game and some people fired off quick jokes that the Vols were about to put a scare into their SEC East rivals. That was not remotely true, though, as Neyland Stadium soon became as quiet as a caretaker-less graveyard when Carson Beck and the Dawgs got things rolling. Georgia scored 24 straight points to take a commanding lead, even with the Vols adding a field goal before halftime. UGA added two more scores in the second half while blanking Tennessee for the dominant 38-10 victory.
Carson Beck has really hit his stride of late at the helm of the Dawgs offense, which he showed again with nearly 300 yards passing and three touchdown passes. The offensive line is now healthy, opening the way for Kendall Milton and Daijun Edwards. With the way Mike Bobo has this thing humming and with the talent on the Georgia defense, they are the rightful natty favorites and very much in line for the historic three-peat.
