A lot of components go into the College Football Playoff rankings. Those include conference championships, head-to-head victories, how you did in the non-conference, etc. One other component that is definitely factored into the equation, but is not deemed as important as others is strength of record. Like, how impressive is your record on the year, given the teams you have played?
If this were the lone driving force towards playoff inclusion, everybody in the Power Five would only schedule other Power Five teams and the Group of Five would be left in the dust. Of course, you never really know how good a team will be in a given season because many of these games are scheduled way in advance. Plus, teams' conferences schedule who they will be playing for them, so there is that.
So what we are going to do today is take a look at what the College Football Playoff rankings would have looked like entering Week 12's games, based strictly on each top 25 team's strength of record. Obviously, taking a look at this measure might be baffling. There are plenty of great teams getting the shaft, whereas teams who are just okay are being elevated far beyond their levels of competency.
Behold! The College Football Playoff rankings for Week 12, based entirely on their strength of record.
College Football Playoff rankings for Week 12, plus strength of record
For those who need a refresher, here are the College Football Playoff rankings ahead of Week 12.
College Football Playoff rankings for Week 12
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Michigan Wolverines
- Florida State Seminoles
- Washington Huskies
- Oregon Ducks
- Texas Longhorns
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Missouri Tigers
- Louisville Cardinals
- Oregon State Beavers
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Oklahoma Sooners
- LSU Tigers
- Iowa Hawkeyes
- Arizona Wildcats
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- North Carolina Tar Heels
- Kansas State Wildcats
- Utah Utes
- Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Tulane Green Wave
- Kansas Jayhawks
Of the teams inside the top 10, nine of them have any shot of making the four-team field. Entering Week 12, those teams are Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten, Florida State and Louisville in the ACC, Alabama and Georgia in the SEC, Texas in the Big 12, and Oregon and Washington in the Pac-12. Missouri ranked at No. 9 is the best team who cannot make the playoff, as the Tigers have two losses.
College football rankings: Top 25 CFP teams ranked based on strength of record
Since you love to break your brain too, here are the playoff teams ranked based on strength of record.
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Washington Huskies
- Florida State Seminoles
- Michigan Wolverines
- Texas Longhorns
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Oregon Ducks
- Missouri Tigers
- James Madison Dukes*
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- Louisville Cardinals
- LSU Tigers
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Liberty Flames*
- Utah Utes
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Iowa Hawkeyes
- Tulane Green Wave
- Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Tennessee Volunteers
- Kansas State Wildcats
- Oregon State Beavers
- Kansas Jayhawks
- North Carolina Tar Heels
- Toledo Rockets*
- USC Trojans*
- North Carolina State Wolfpack*
- Arizona Wildcats
* = Not ranked in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.
There is so much to unpack from this exercise. Perhaps the biggest is No. 1 Georgia comes in at No. 6 based on strength of record. Of course, the Dawgs still have to play Tennessee and Alabama before Selection Sunday, two teams who are ranked inside of the top 20 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. There are also five teams that the Selection Committee did not rank ahead of those it did.
The weakest strength of record of anybody ranked inside the top 25 this past week is No. 17 Arizona. The Wildcats have the 30th-best strength of record in college football. No. 20 North Carolina is six spots worse than its ranking with the 26th-best strength of record. So who does strength of record favor considerably? Of the playoff contenders, Washington gets the most love up to No. 2 from No. 5.
No. 6 Oregon and No. 10 Louisville get the least amount of love, as the Ducks and Cardinals come in with the ninth and 13th-best strength of record, respectively. Strength of record also favors undefeated Group of Five teams like James Madison and Liberty, who are not ranked by the Selection Committee. JMU is not eligible for the postseason this year, but Liberty could win the Group of Five.
Ultimately, strength of record is a great way to attempt to eliminate some of the biases we have in putting together top 25s. Admittedly, they do get stronger as the season progresses with more and more data points to be collected. However, strength of record does not care about conference championships, being eligible for the postseason and certainly the eye test. Those are all important.
If these rankings did anything for me, it showed me Washington may be underrated as a contender.
