Here's the thing about the preseason AP Top 25: It doesn't matter.
Sure, the college football world loves to debate the rankings every August, but everyone knows the poll will change in potentially drastic ways throughout the season. And in the end, what matters is where you stand when the four College Football Playoff spots are chosen.
In many ways, the preseason poll is about vibes. But ESPN's FPI dives into the numbers to set a value on playoff chances. That's what we're looking at today.
To start everything off, No. 1 Georgia does not have the highest percentage chance of making the playoff while at least one team outside the Top 10 has a better chance than No. 2 Michigan.
Here are the Top 25 rankings if they were ordered by playoff percentage...
College football rankings: Comparing College Football Playoff projections for the Top 25
- Ohio State (Actual ranking: 3)
- Alabama (4)
- Georgia (1)
- Texas (11)
- Clemson (9)
- Michigan (2)
- Notre Dame (13)
- USC (6)
- LSU (5)
- Penn State (7)
- Oklahoma (20)
- Utah (14)
- Oregon (15)
- Florida State (8)
- Tennessee (12)
- Wisconsin (19)
- Ole Miss (22)
- TCU (17)
- North Carolina (21)
- Texas A&M (23)
- Oregon State (18)
- Washington (10)
- Kansas State (16)
- Iowa (25)
- Tulane (24)
Ohio State isn't just No. 1 in this order. They have the best odds of making the playoff by a mile at 70.9 percent compared to Alabama's 55.9 percent. That's wild considering they play away at both Notre Dame and Michigan. But the computers love the Buckeyes, ranking them No. 1 in the Football Power Index.
Michigan may be seen as the primary Big Ten threat to the SEC powers by voters, but FPI is more skeptical of their CFP chances. AP No. 11 Texas and No. 9 Clemson have a higher percentage to get in out of the Big 12 and ACC respectively. And that's with the Longhorns facing off with Alabama in Week 2.
Florida State is shockingly low relative to the Tigers. Yes, they face a major threat against LSU to start the season but Clemson will have to take on Notre Dame in November.
USC has the best chances in the Pac-12 while No. 10 Washington is behind even Oregon State in playoff odds.
Finally, Alabama may be ahead of Georgia but it's by a narrow margin: 55.9 percent to 49.9 percent. The Buckeyes, Crimson Tide and Bulldogs are as close to playoff locks as the preseason could offer. The rest are fighting over the fourth-place scraps, at least as far as the numbers say.
