Global fund managers are tamping down expectations ahead of China’s Politburo meeting, with many bracing for prolonged gloom in the stock market on bets that any policy support will lack potency.
Chinese stocks notched its worst week in four despite a series of vows to boost consumption and businesses, underscoring deep market skepticism. While the high-level economic policy meeting slated for next week should unveil further measures to revive spending and the ailing property sector, investors see no easy fix to the lack of confidence plaguing the market.
Beijing faces the dilemma of ensuring the economy achieves its roughly 5% growth target, while refraining from the type of all-out stimulus that may yield asset bubbles. With a broad rally seen unlikely, money managers are choosing to focus on more specific opportunities within sectors including Internet, consumer discretionary and energy transition that align with policy goals.
The “market is pricing some continued policy support, but no bazooka-like stimulus,” said Kevin Net, head of Asian equities at LA Banque Postale Asset Management in Paris. “It’s best to focus on the fundamentals, in particular the sectors and stocks that will benefit from government support and help China gain more self reliance.”
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The CSI 300 benchmark of mainland shares fell 2% this week even as officials released 31 measures to improve conditions for private business and are considering easing home buying restrictions in the nation’s biggest cities. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 2.2%, firming its status as one of the year’s worst performers among 92 major gauges tracked by Bloomberg.
Key Chinese indexes are down for the year, losing out on a rally seen across Japan, India and the US. While not a game changer, the Politburo meeting will offer some tactical trading opportunities.
“I would watch for rhetoric that aims to boost private sector confidence and a combination of stimulus,” said Steven Luk, chief executive officer at FountainCap Research & Investment in Hong Kong. With downside risks to the government’s 5% target for this year’s growth, measures announced at the meeting will be critical, he said.
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But any rhetoric short on detail will likely be received poorly by investors jaded from multiple false dawns. Just last month, a rally in the wake of promises for “more forceful” policies at a State Council meeting turned into renewed selling given the lack of specific measures.
“If the government just sticks with a continuation of incremental policy easing to keep growth at around 5%, that gives no trigger for investors to move,” said Chi Lo, investment strategist for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management Asia Ltd. “The market is likely to stay in range-bound trading with no conviction but volatility.”
For some investors, such deep pessimism and low positioning suggest opportunities to the upside. The MSCI China Index is trading at ten times forward earnings versus its five-year average of about 12. Citigroup Inc. strategists wrote in a July 14 note that they remain overweight on the market as cheap valuations offer an attractive entry point should Beijing deliver any positive surprise on stimulus.
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“Risk reward is getting actually quite favorable to China equities and once things start to normalize, the upside can be quite meaningful,” said Cynthia Chen, portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments Asia Ltd.
Even if the policy rollout disappoints, Chen isn’t too concerned as she remains focused on a “bottom up stock selection.”
That strategy of seeking idiosyncratic opportunities is also shared by other money managers including Janus Henderson Investors SP Ltd., who favors companies in travel, food retailing, and those in industrials that benefit from increased localization trend and have the potential to become more like General Electric Co. or Siemens AG.
“It’s possible the market may go nowhere, but there will be companies that can carry their businesses through this cycle in China,” said May Ling Wee, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. “It may not be a big scale market opportunity, but we do think on the company basis we are able to find those opportunities.”
