These early college football bowl game projections have Texas football so incredibly back!
One day, Texas will be back and we will have to talk about it when, and if, that day ever comes.
It's not the rapture, but it sure as hell feels like it sometimes. The good news for the Longhorns is they seem to be recruiting at a high enough level under head coach Steve Sarkisian that could conceivably help them make the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format once they join the SEC. Well, what if I told you one early bowl season projection has them in the field in this year?
What are the chances Texas actually wins the Big 12 one last time before peacing out on them?
College Football Playoff projections have Texas Longhorns in as the No. 3 seed
247Sports' Brad Crawford released his way-too-early bowl game projections for the 2023-24 college football season on Monday. He had all the games, including the four playoff teams, as well as they other four New Year's Six bowls.
- College Football Playoff: Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 4 Michigan Wolverines
- College Football Playoff: Rose Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 3 Texas Longhorns
- Cotton Bowl: LSU Tigers vs. USC Trojans
- Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Washington Huskies
- Orange Bowl: Clemson Tigers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
- Peach Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Tulane Green Wave
In his projection, Crawford has Texas winning the Big 12 and making the College Football Playoff as the No. 3. The Longhorns would face No. 2-seeded and presumptive Big Ten champion Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. Texas probably loses to the Buckeyes, but making the final four-team playoff is a massive, massive deal for any team worth its weight in salt, including the Longhorns.
Of the four teams who made the dance last year, everybody and their brother expects for TCU to pull back. While Crawford has Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State all making it in, most people would have at least two of the three getting in again as well. I may subscribe to that notion, but I think Alabama or LSU could totally take the place of The Game's loser between Michigan and Ohio State.
And that right there is where this gets complicated. Who is the fourth team getting in? Texas may be the team to beat in the Big 12, but Oklahoma should be markedly better in year two under Brent Venables. The Pac-12 is top-heavy, so that league may cannibalize itself like it tends to do to keep its best teams like Oregon, USC and Washington out. Then, there's the ACC to worry about.
Crawford has little ole Clemson winning the ACC again, but even with Cade Klubnik running point, that may not be enough to entice the Selection Committee to put the Tigers in over Texas, all things equal. However, if the Florida State Seminoles win the league and their quarterback Jordan Travis is a Heisman Trophy finalist, they may give Mike Norvell his day in the sun in Tallahassee.
Given that the Sugar Bowl is part of the playoff this year, it wouldn't force the Selection Committee to shoe-horn in this year's version of Kansas State into the NY6. Although K-State could certainly win the Big 12 again, Texas has more upward trajectory over the Wildcats. Then again, Kansas State has the better head coach in Chris Klieman, and I don't think that is arguable.
Simply put, for Texas to get into the final four-team field, the Longhorns will need to go 12-1 with either an undefeated season or a Big 12 title to boot. That is what it will take for them to be back. It has always been that way, but they haven't gotten to that level since 2009, so here we are. While Texas can definitely win the Big 12 this year and get in, I think they are around a 10-2 team.
The Longhorns have a big opportunity ahead of them, but they don't major in great expectations.
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