European Central Bank Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said investor wagers on reductions in borrowing costs before mid-2024 are unrealistic.
“Bets on rate cuts happening already in the first half of next year are entirely misplaced,” the Slovak official said Monday in a statement. “We will have to stay at the peak for the next few quarters.”
Kazimir said inflation risks persist and it won’t be possible to say hikes are over until at least March.
“All those voices coining this as the end of the cycle should hold their horses,” he said. “It’s too soon to declare victory and say the job’s done.”
Kazimir also said:
- “Additional tightening could come, if incoming data force us to take such a step”
- “A large chunk of our past decisions still needs to transpire into the real economy”
- “I will eagerly await the December update of our inflation forecast to get a clearer picture, confirmation, that the decline in inflation is sustained. I hope that renewed upside inflation risks from the escalating tragic conflict in the Middle East will not materialize”
- “December forecasts are one of two key milestones needed to pass. March is the latter. By then, it should have become clearer how wage negotiations for the whole year turned out and whether the risks of a spiral of high prices and high wages were off the table”
