The European Central Bank needs to stick carefully to a data-dependent approach in weighing when and how much to raise interest rates, Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said.
“We have agreed as a governing council to stick to the data as it becomes available,” Visco said in an interview after the Group of Seven finance chiefs meeting in Niigata, Japan. “It is in nobody’s interest to speculate over scenarios that could be evaluated differently over time as the situation changes.”
Visco, who also heads the Bank of Italy, spoke two days after his German counterpart Joachim Nagel said it’s not possible to rule out interest-rate increases continuing beyond the summer.
The ECB’s data-focused approach means views on what will happen in four months may shift easily. Still, some policymakers on the Governing Council are speculating that two further expected quarter-point hikes may not be sufficient to tame consumer prices.
Most economists see the ECB reaching a terminal rate of 3.75% in July with Danske Bank among a small minority forecasting the deposit rate to reach 4% in September.
Among the more hawkish members of the Governing Council, Bank of Latvia chief Martins Kazaks said in an interview that investors shouldn’t assume ECB tightening will stop in July, while Slovakia’s Peter Kazimir has said that the ECB will have to keep raising rates for longer than he had expected.
ECB President Christine Lagarde has indicated that at least two more steps will be needed, but hasn’t said if rates will then have to rise further. She warned in an interview with the Nikkei just before the start of the G-7 meeting that there were still significant upside risks for the inflation outlook.
