Inflation in urban parts of Egypt eased for the first time since June 2022, providing a reprieve that may prove temporary for an economy struggling to stabilize the exchange rate.
Consumer prices rose an annual 30.6% in April, down from 32.7% the previous month, thanks in large part to a favorable base effect. Also contributing to last month’s slowdown was a milder increase in the cost of food and beverages, the state-run statistics agency CAPMAS said Wednesday.
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Egypt, a major wheat importer, was particularly vulnerable to the economic fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on global commodities. Consumer prices in the Middle East’s most populous country also spiraled higher as a result of three currency devaluations since March 2022 and some trade restrictions imposed by authorities.
Improvements in the supply of goods are now taking some pressure off consumer prices. On a monthly basis, inflation dipped to 1.7%, compared with 2.7% in March.
The disinflation momentum will be hard to sustain. The government recently raised the administered cost of basic commodities and increased diesel fuel prices by about 14%.
The possibility of further currency depreciation is an especial concern. In a sign pressure is still building on the Egyptian pound, its value on the black market has diverged further from the official bank rate in the last few days, amid speculation that authorities might enact another devaluation.
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The government has said tackling inflation is a top priority, and the central bank has responded with a 200 basis-point hike to interest rates in March, adding to four increases last year. It targets inflation of 7%, plus or minus 2 percentage points, by the fourth quarter of next year.
But Governor Hassan Abdalla recently signaled higher interest rates could do little to contain inflation that he described as stoked mainly by supply issues. Egypt’s official borrowing costs remain well below zero when adjusted by inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee next plans to meet on May 18.
--With assistance from Tarek El-Tablawy and Abdel Latif Wahba.
