Two Federal Reserve officials said the US economy still hasn’t felt the full effect of past interest-rate increases, suggesting more slowing is yet to come.
“In aggregate, we are still not seeing the full effects of policy,” Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Thursday during a fireside chat in New Orleans. Speaking at the same event, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he agreed.
Fed officials are trying to determine if they should keep raising interest rates after electing to leave the central bank’s benchmark unchanged at their last two policy meetings. It’s currently in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years.
Investors no longer expect additional increases, according to futures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Thursday afternoon in Washington, on a panel at a conference hosted by the International Monetary Fund.
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“I think our policy is restrictive, and likely sufficiently restrictive, but I think we’re going to still have bumps along the way,” said Bostic, who has been among the Fed’s most dovish policymakers this year.
“Inflation is going to get to 2%,” Bostic said. “We will keep restrictive policy until that happens, or until we are sure that is going to happen.”
Barkin, who has been among the more hawkish policymakers calling for tighter policy to curb inflation, said he believes the US economy is “not as vibrant” as recent data showing strong growth in the third quarter would suggest.
“I believe there’s a slowdown coming,” Barkin said. “I believe we’re going to need that slowdown, because I think that’s what it’s going to take to convince price-setters the days of pricing power are over.”
In remarks published afterward for a separate event, the Richmond Fed chief said it “remains to be seen” whether the central bank will need to raise rates again.
(Updates with additional Barkin comment in final paragraph.)
