Colombian assets are rallying due to the nation’s stable economy, not because investors are betting that social reforms will be blocked by congress, Finance Minister Ricardo Bonilla said.
Colombia’s stocks, bonds and peso all surged in recent days as allegations of wiretapping and illegal campaign financing embroil the leftist government of President Gustavo Petro. However, the rally predates the scandal, Bonilla said in a phone interview.
“The market is supporting us, but not because the government is weak,” Bonilla said.
Analysts at Barclays Plc., Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Wells Fargo & Co. and XP Investments US LLC. have all said that Petro’s political difficulties are bullish for Colombia.
The peso extended its rally in early trading on Wednesday, appreciating to 4,186 per dollar at 9 a.m. in Bogota, its strongest level since August.
Colombia’s message of economic stability has provided calm to financial markets, and investors have responded by accepting lower yields in local bond sales offered by the government, Bonilla said.
The government-promoted reforms aren’t stalled in any case, but are advancing in congress with debates scheduled for the health and the pension bills over the coming days, he added.
Fears about the future of the oil sector are unfounded, as the companies continue to explore, he said. Even though the government hasn’t awarded new exploration licenses, there have been recent gas discoveries in blocs that had already been awarded, he said.
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Barclays strategists Alejandro Arreaza, Sebastian Vargas and Badr El Moutawakil on Wednesday upgraded their recommendation on Colombia’s dollar debt to overweight from market weight, and recommended buying Ecopetrol bonds maturing in 2030 as Petro loses political support and economic fundamentals improve.
Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo, said that if Petro’s reform agenda can’t be implemented “that takes a lot of political risk off the currency.”
(Adds analysts comments from 4th paragraph.)
