The Vegas Golden Knights have already won more games against the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final than they did last time these two teams met in the Stanley Cup semifinal, when the Stars won in five games.
Now, Dallas is facing an 0-2 deficit heading into Game 3.
All is not lost, as the Stars have two home games ahead of them with a chance to even the series back up.
I have some more good news for Stars fans. They're set as the betting favorites in tonight's Game 3.
Let's take a look at the odds for the game and then I'll give you my best bet.
Golden Knights vs. Stars odds, puck line, and total
Golden Knights vs. Stars prediction and pick
Just because they're down 0-2, doesn't mean I'm going to stop believing in the Stars. Especially now that they're back at home for Game 3.
If you look at the "expected goals" metric in this series, the Stars have had a significant advantage in this category. Their expected goals per 60 minutes in this series is 3.3, while the Golden Knights are at 2.86.
The key for the Stars is for Jake Oettinger to start playing to the level that he can. He has a save percentage of .885 in this series, which is well below his save percentage in the regular season as well as his save percentage in the playoffs through his career.
The Stars arguably outplayed the Golden Knights in both games in Vegas and forced OT in both of them. Now that they return home, I have no doubt they can notch a win.
I'll take the Stars on the moneyline in Game 3.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
