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Ever look down at your phone and see the weather forecasting “30 percent chance of rain”? Well, it turns out that for many people, those percentages don’t quite mean what they thought they did. You might assume a 30 percent chance of rain means there is a 30 percent chance that it will rain in your area. But what it actually means is a combination of a) how high the chance of rain is over any given area, and b) how much of the area it is expected to cover. “The probability of precipitation forecast is one of the least understood elements of the weather forecast,” the US National Weather Service explains. “To summarize, the probability of precipitation is simply a statistical probability of 0.01 inch [0.025 centimeters] or more of precipitation at a given area in the given forecast area in the time period specified.” It comes after an account on X/Twitter, posted a viral picture of somebody saying: “Am I the only one who thought 30% chance of rain meant it’s a 30% chance it’s gonna rain?” What actually happens is as follows. To calculate the precipitation probability, forecasters multiply how much of an area they believe will receive this much rain, by how confident they are in their prediction that rain will fall in that area. The NWS gives the following examples, which both lead to a prediction of a 40 percent chance of rain via very different weather scenarios: “(1) If the forecaster was 80% certain that rain would develop but only expected to cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read ‘a 40% chance of rain’ for any given location. “(2) If the forecaster expected a widespread area of precipitation with 100% coverage to approach, but he/she was only 40% certain that it would reach the forecast area, this would, as well, result in a ‘40% chance of rain’ at any given location in the forecast area.” Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.

A popular rapper in France known as MHD has been given a 12-year jail term for the murder of a young man in Paris in 2018. The 29-year-old, whose real name is Mohamed Sylla, was found guilty of involvement in the gang-related murder of Loic K, 23, by a court in the capital. The rapper was charged with voluntary manslaughter in 2019 after the victim was knocked down by MHD’s Mercedes, then beaten and stabbed to death by a crowd of about 12 people. MHD was arrested on 15 January 2019 and two days later indicted and charged with second-degree murder. The rapper continued to plead his innocence up to and including on the day of his sentencing, according to the AFP news agency. “From the beginning, I have maintained my innocence in this case and I will continue to maintain my innocence,” he reportedly said. He was tried alongside eight co-defendants, out of which three were acquitted, while five others received sentences ranging from 10 to 18 years, according to The Guardian. MHD said he was never at the scene of the murder, arguing that the case against him was based on rumours. However, a video shot by a local resident showed a car during the incident which was later identified as belonging to MHD. Other witnesses identified him by his haircut and a jumper. The incident was earlier reported as a fight between two rival street gangs. Arguing his innocence, his lawyer cited his “lack of a judicial record” and affirmed he has “never been involved in fights between street gangs”. It was not immediately clear whether the rapper or others sentenced will challenge the decision. MHD is known for blending trap music with the music of West Africa in a genre he coined “Afro Trap”. He started his career at the age of 18 and soon rose to fame with his music videos on YouTube. Read More French activists protest racism and police brutality while officers are on guard for key events Security guard stabbed rapper to death at party attended by hundreds, jury hears Fans believe they’ve unearthed proof of Kim Kardashian’s Drake crush in new video Six young activists devote years to climate fight with 32 governments. Now comes their day in court Lots of dignitaries but no real fireworks as the Asian Games open French activists protest racism and police brutality while officers are on guard for key events

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After an ongoing feud between Republican Reps Marjorie Taylor Greene and Lauren Boebert, a Republican lawmaker said the standoff between the two Congress members could result in a fistfight. “A fistfight could break out at any moment,” Republican Tennessee Rep Tim Burchett told The Daily Beast. Mr Burchett told the publication that he was serious, and added he was enjoying the Republicans’ rivalry as a “professional wrestling fan.” He told the outlet, “I am friends with both of them. It’s entertaining to think that a fistfight could break out at any movement. I kind of dig that.” The Tennessee Republican isn’t alone in his stance. Another GOP lawmaker close to both Reps Greene and Boebert, who spoke anonymously, told the outlet: “You can’t have too many of these rifts for too long.” Arizona Republican Congressman Paul Gosar called the battle a “two-way sword” to The Daily Beast. He continued, “I just think that whatever is there, could be utilized both ways,” he said, adding that “people make decisions that they have to work and live by, and you kind of hate being in their shoes.” The conflict between the congresswomen came to a head recently when Ms Greene was kicked out of the Freedom Caucus after she called Ms Boebert “a little b****.” The Georgia Republican claimed last week that she didn’t know why she was booted from the Freedom Caucus. She dismissed the move, saying that she didn’t “have time for the drama club.” Read More Marjorie Taylor Greene says she didn’t know she was kicked out of the Freedom Caucus The Freedom Caucus booting Marjorie Taylor Greene looks worse for them than it does for her Marjorie Taylor Greene ousted from House Freedom Caucus following fight with Lauren Boebert

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