The Ukraine war may remain a “stalemate” throughout 2024, military experts have told The Independent, as hopes fade for a major breakthrough in this year’s counteroffensive against Russia. Delays in Western military aid handed Moscow time to build heavily fortified defences, which have largely held up against months of intense assaults – and constraints in ammunition and weaponry now mean both armies may struggle to sustain the current pace of the war, some analysts believe. With the prospect of a Middle East conflict likely to further stretch Washington – Ukraine’s largest backer – ahead of a US presidential election in November 2024, Vladimir Putin’s strategy may now be to preserve the current state of the frontline and “wait it out”, Western experts say. With just weeks likely left before seasonal weather changes dampen offensive efforts in Ukraine, Dr Patrick Bury of the University of Bath said: “There hasn’t been a breakthrough, there’s been tactical gains, low-level operational gains – but not strategic.” “What this summer has shown is that [Ukraine] can fight at company level [of around 100 soldiers] but when you go the next level up to the battalion, they just don’t really have the coordinated experience to fight with all the moving parts”, said Dr Bury, a former Nato analyst and British Army captain. While the US is due to start providing F-16 fighter jets next year, the sophistication of the Russian air force means Ukraine will still struggle to achieve air superiority, “and you need air superiority really to be able to free up the chance of large-scale manoeuvre”, he added. Therefore “unless there’s significant widespread packages of training, new weapons and equipment”, Dr Bury said, “it’s looking like 2024 is a bit of a stalemate” – with any significant shifts instead likely to take place off the battlefield. Agreeing that “we’re [already] seeing a stalemate now”, Dr Frank Ledwidge – a former military intelligence officer, now at the University of Portsmouth – questioned “whether any tactics would have worked against defenders who [Ukraine] didn’t outnumber three to one”. “In the most basic military algorithms, you need an attack ratio of three [troops] to one, and the Ukrainians don’t have anything like that,” he said. “So barring any significant change in that force ratio there’s no reason really now to assume that future operations will be any different.” Warning that there are “no game changers”, including F-16s, Dr Ledwidge likened the situation to the Western Front in 1917, adding: “Breakthroughs were made eventually in the First World War, but only when the Americans came in with two million soldiers.” He added: “Unless somebody has the moral courage to say ‘Ukraine is highly unlikely to retake all its land’, then this will go on.” James Nixey, director of the Chatham House think-tank’s Russia and Eurasia programme, said: “It does seem as though we’re heading towards a battle for Crimea.” While noting that Russia is “going all-in” by putting its economy and society “on a near at total war footing”, which may help address ammunition shortages, Mr Nixey said he agreed that significant changes to the situation in Ukraine will now likely “happen off field”. “Putin is banking almost everything on a Trump return,” he said, adding that the conflict emerging in Gaza and Israel – and threatening to become a wider Middle East conflict drawing in Hezbollah and Iran – means that “attention, resources and funding will be diverted now” from Ukraine. “While it’s true that the US army prepares for to simultaneous separate wars, the reality is that the pie is likely to be smaller – even if Ukraine funding is tagged onto an Israel assistance bid,” said Mr Nixey. US president Joe Biden, who recently suffered a setback in securing Congress’s approval for Ukraine aid, rejected that prospect this week, telling CBS News: “We’re the United States of America, for God’s sake. The most powerful nation in the history of the world. “We can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defence. We have the capacity to do this and we have an obligation … If we don’t, who does?” But agreeing that a second conflict has “certainly got the potential for stretching the US”, Dr Bury and Dr Ledwidge both believe a military stalemate in Ukraine is therefore “very satisfactory” to the Russian president. “Putin’s strategy is just to wait it out,” said Dr Bury. “Putin’s played a masterstroke here – he’s basically used a nuclear threat to slow down and salami-slice the aid to Ukraine. That’s the effect it’s had.” “Those threats were enough to make the Biden administration and the Germans were very wary” of supplying F-16s, tanks and long-range weaponry, he noted, adding: “We got there in the end, but it took time. “And that, it turned out, gave Russia time to build very good defensive lines and make their problem easier and the Ukrainians’ much harder.” Read More Russia to return four Ukrainian children to their families as part of Qatari-brokered deal Putin arrives in China on rare trip abroad to meet ‘dear friend’ Xi Jinping As the conflict in Israel rages on, the world must not forget about Ukraine ‘My body was burning’: Russian journalist’s horror journey in grips of suspected poisoning

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Lionel Messi’s two-year spell at Paris St Germain ended in a 3-2 home defeat to Clermont Foot at the weekend. An option to extend his stay with the Ligue 1 champions has not been activated with the Argentina World Cup winner heavily linked with a return to Barcelona, although he does have other alternatives. Here, the PA news agency looks at where the 35-year-old seven-time Ballon d’Or winner might go next. Barcelona Considering Messi never really wanted to leave and was effectively forced out as the club’s financial problems meant they could not afford to renew his contract, due to wage cap issues, a return to his spiritual home in Catalonia, the Nou Camp seems the obvious choice. Even last summer, club president Joan Laporta said it was the club’s responsibility to “find a moment to fix that chapter” so it has “a more beautiful ending”. However, despite losing the long-serving Gerard Pique, Sergio Busquets and Jordi Alba off the wage bill for next season, the club still have to cut costs to satisfy LaLiga and that remains a huge stumbling block. Al Hilal One place where money is not an issue is Saudi Arabia – for whom Messi is already a tourism ambassador – and the Saudi Pro League has already attracted Cristiano Ronaldo to Al Nassr this year. He has been linked with Al Hilal, who would have no problems enhancing his net annual salary of £31million, but Ronaldo’s experience since arriving five months ago, with reports suggesting he is not happy, may influence Messi’s thinking and a year after winning the World Cup, he may not be ready to step away from the limelight. Inter Miami While not an elite-level club, David Beckham’s Inter Miami has long been touted as a final destination for the South American and if he were to move to the United States, he would become Major League Soccer’s highest-profile signing and highest-paid player in history. Messi, who has a home in Miami, has spoken in the past of wanting to play in America and the lifestyle in Florida – which has a large Hispanic community – would appeal. He would, however, again have to accept his days at the very highest level are over and also have to accept a significant pay cut. Manchester City It seems slightly more fanciful for Messi to consider a reunion with his former Barcelona manager Pep Guardiola at the Etihad Stadium. While that move would be based on mutual respect and emotional ties, it could be argued Messi needs the all-conquering Premier League champions, who could win a treble if they beat Inter Milan in Saturday’s Champions League final, more than City do. They are probably the only English club who could afford him but it is debatable whether they would want to invite that extra scrutiny, with more than 100 Premier League charges regarding financial fair play already hanging over them.

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There’s a reason the French look is held to the highest standard in beauty. Everyone wants a piece of that effortlessly cool aesthetic, and French beauty products are some of the best in the world. Dr Marine Vincent, founder of The French Pharmacy, notes the French approach favours “a more minimalistic and effortless look”. She says: “French women lean towards a more natural aesthetic, prioritising a prevention-focused and holistic approach to beauty. “French women value taking care of their skin as a form of self-care and overall wellbeing. They understand that healthy skin is a reflection of a healthy lifestyle.” Plus, Vincent says “embracing your individuality and cultivating self-confidence are key elements of French beauty”. If you want to get more of a Parisian glow, take a look at some of these French skincare secrets… 1. Adopt positive habits early on “In French culture, skincare is indeed ingrained from a young age, and I believe it comes again from the wellbeing and holistic approach to beauty,” Vincent reflects. “We see it as part of our self-care, not as an option.” She says she learned the “significance of using quality products” growing up, and her mother “taught me to cleanse, moisturise and protect my skin from an early age” – with her first moisturiser from classic French pharmacy brand Avène. “Time has passed and I now gave the same advice to my 12-year-old daughter,” Vincent adds – now adding sunscreen into that list, which is “one of the most effective anti-ageing skincare tools”. Part of forming these positive habits is consistency, which Vincent says is “key in skincare, as it helps to maintain the skin’s balance and prevents common issues such as acne or premature ageing, so starting early will allow you to establish good habits early on, making it easier to maintain them in the long-term”. 2. Use French pharmacy products “If you’re looking for effective skincare without all the fancy marketing and high price tags, French pharmacy beauty products are definitely worth exploring,” says Vincent. “They’ve got a solid reputation for a reason.” One of the reasons they’re so good is they “focus on simplicity”, Vincent suggests. “French skincare brands often prioritise using key active ingredients that are known to work wonders for the skin. It’s all about delivering visible results without any fuss.” Look out for brands like La Roche-Posay, Avène, Caudalie and Bioderma – helping you get science-based, effective products without breaking the bank. Bioderma Hydrabio Serum, £20, Escentual Caudalie Vinopure Moisturizing Mattifying Fluid, £25 3. Try endermologie This secret is a bit pricier than pharmacy skincare products, but many French women swear by it. Endermologie is a treatment where a therapist uses a machine with various settings on your body or face. “It is very renowned for its amazing results, primarily on cellulite, sagging skin [and] body contouring,” suggests LPG Endermologie ambassador Nathalie Paradis. She says it’s “powerful” in “increasing firmness, but at the same time very respectful of the skin, especially when it’s fragile”. Endermologie isn’t quite a household name in the UK, but is much more prominent in France where there’s a more holistic approach to beauty. Paradis says: “We are facing a new era where beauty cannot be separated from health, and where people can benefit from this technology to reach their goals of wellbeing in an increasingly stressful environment.” Becoming increasingly popular in UK salons, it can also be used to treat scars or scar tissue. 4. Get the ‘French touch’ Vincent says thermal water spray is the extra “French touch” you can add to your beauty bag and use “all year long”. According to Vincent, some of the best uses of thermal water spray are before applying hyaluronic acid serums (you “need moisture to be effective”, she says), to “fix your make-up”, to refresh your face in summer and “to layer in between your skincare steps and add an extra layer of hydration”. Avène Thermal Spring Water Spray for Sensitive Skin, £15.50, Boots Vichy Mineralizing Thermal Spa Water, £9, Look Fantastic 5. Use a secret weapon Is cica cream in your routine? This is the nickname for centella asiatica creams and “long before [it was a] TikTok trend, all French women have one in their beauty bag”, Vincent says. According to Vincent, it’s useful for any skin irritation (cracked lips, burns, baby rashes, etc), dry areas (like elbows or knees), after sun, as a skin recovery mask and as a moisturiser. La Roche Posay Cicaplast Balm, £10, Boots Bioderma Cicabio Pommade – Repairing Ointment, £8, Escentual Read More Charity boss speaks out over ‘traumatic’ encounter with royal aide Ukraine war’s heaviest fight rages in east - follow live What happens if you don’t wash your water bottle often enough? Prince George visits Eton with parents Prince William and Kate Middleton King Charles and Queen Camilla ecstatic after getting their first Royal Ascot winner