After the high-octane excitement of their successful Leagues Cup campaign and the thrill of their comeback victory in the US Open Cup semi-final, Inter Miami and Lionel Messi get down to...

The case has shed light on the horrifying conditions in which her son, Jordan Brooks, lived before his untimely death

Racquel Lee noticed the store worker, who helped her and 12 others hide in a closet, among the mass of 'bullets and bodies' outside

Corporate bonds globally are on track for one of their worst weeks this year, hit by China’s escalating

Manchester City midfielder Rodri has been sent off for grabbing an opponent around the neck in a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest that extended the defending champions’ perfect start to their Premier League title defense

In 2020, philosopher Toby Ord published The Precipice, a book on the risk of human extinction. The chances of "existential catastrophe" for humanity in the next century according to Ord? One in six. It was a shocking number that alarmed many. After years of being flooded with warnings over climate change, rogue AI, nuclear weapons and pandemics, it's hard to disagree that humans face worrying chances. In his book, Ord discusses a number of potential extinction events, some of which can be examined through history. His research involved looking at the number of space rocks that have hit the moon over its history to figure out the likelihood than an extinction-sized asteroid hitting Earth. This was, in fact, looked at in 2022 by French scientists Jean-Marc Salotti, he calculated the odds of an extinction-level hit in the next century to be roughly one in 300 million. By contrast, Ord estimated the risk to be one in a million, although he does point out a considerable degree of uncertainty. Probabilities can be hard to understand in this context. Traditional probability, for example, relies on observations and a collection of repeated events, but human extinction would be a one-off. But there is another way to think if, called Bayesianism, after the English statistician Thomas Bayes. It sees probabilities as a ranking system of sorts. Specific number predictions shouldn't be taken so literally, but rather compared to other probabilities to understand the likelihood of each outcome. Ord's book contains a table of potential causes of extinctions, accompanied by his personal estimates of their probability. From a Bayesian perspective, we can view these as relative ranks. Ord thinks extinction from an asteroid strike (one in a million) is much less likely than extinction from climate change (one in a thousand). However, even using Bayesianism traditionally requires the incorporation of observational evidence. So, what do we make of Ord's "one in six"? Well it's better to take it less literally but to think of it as a warning, to jump start action on issues such as climate change to hopefully reduce the risk of human extinction in the next century. Sign up to our free Indy100 weekly newsletter Have your say in our news democracy. Click the upvote icon at the top of the page to help raise this article through the indy100 rankings.

Former president Donald Trump denied that he ever possessed a secret document about attacking Iran despite the fact a recording exists that had him discussing a document he kept from his presidency. Mr Trump spoke in an interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier at his property in Bedminster, New Jersey less than a week after he pleaded not guilty to 37 charges in a federal court in Miami at his arraignment. A federal grand jury had indicted him for allegedly willfully mishandling classified documents, obstruction of justice and making false statements. The former president was also confronted by Baier over his insistence that he won the 2020 election — which he did not, as the Fox News host made clear in a testy exchange. Voters may be growing sick of Mr Trump as well. In a new poll, voters were most likely to describe Donald Trump in one word: a “criminal”. Mr Trump also complained about the latest Quinnipiac University poll being cited by Fox News that shows Joe Biden beating him in the 2024 election as the network prepared to broadcast an interview with him. Read More Voters think Trump is a criminal, Biden is too old and DeSantis is a fascist, new poll finds Trump’s defence secretary says his hoarding of secrets was ‘unauthorised, illegal and dangerous’ Trump, other Republicans conjure a familiar enemy in attacking Democrats as 'Marxists,' 'communists' Trump is incredibly guilty: that doesn’t mean he’ll get the prison time he deserves

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is cutting about 40 investment bankers in North America, as the Wall Street giant

The Catholic Church in the United States, Australia and some other countries began coming to terms with their clergy sexual abuse legacies years ago and set up mechanisms to compensate victims

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John Demsey was first suspended from his $10 million-a-year Estee Lauder job and then fired due to mounting public backlash

RB Leipzig are hoping to restore some pride as they return to the scene of last season’s thrashing by Manchester City, coach Marco Rose has said. The German side were crushed 7-0 by the eventual Champions League winners when they visited the Etihad Stadium in the last-16 stage of the competition in March. The two sides meet again at the same venue for a group match on Tuesday, with both having already secured their places in the knockout stages. Rose said at a press conference: “Last year with the 7-0 thrashing, it put us down, it knocked us down. We haven’t spoken about it but it was not a good feeling after the game. “But we became cup champions in Germany after the game and we qualified for the Champions League, so it didn’t destroy us as a team. “Tomorrow we want to do better for sure. We want to compete with one of the best teams in the world. We want to show that we can make it better, that we are better. “It’s difficult. We will have to suffer tomorrow. I didn’t see a team here that had much possession. Even Liverpool I think had just 40 per cent ball possession. “So we know what we’ll get but we are here to try again.” Erling Haaland scored five goals for City in that last meeting and Rose knows all about the threat the Norwegian poses having managed him at his former club Borussia Dortmund. He said: “I hope the relationship is as good as it always was but obviously he has to do his job tomorrow. We have to try and suppress him if we can. “We’ll enjoy watching him play but hopefully we’ll be able to stifle him.” Leipzig go into what is their penultimate game in Group G trailing City by three points. Top spot is still to be finalised but the Germans need to win to have any hope of overhauling the English outfit. Read More Forest investigating allegations of homophobic abuse from fans at Brighton game Former England rugby captain Sarah Hunter enjoying ‘not feeling beaten up’ Player behaviour towards referees tops agenda at meeting of game’s lawmakers