Ukraine’s counter-offensive breakthrough will come as a “shock” to Russian President Vladimir Putin, an expert has said. Mark Galeotti, professor of Slavonic studies at UCL, said Russians had become “complacent” and believed their defence to be more effective than Kyiv’s progress would suggest. It comes after Ukrainian generals claimed troops had breached Russia’s first line near Zaporizhzhia and were gathering momentum in an offensive many observers claimed had failed. Professor Galeotti explained there were three aspects to Ukraine’s counteroffensive gains that would particularly concern the Russian leadership. “One is on the battlefield,” he told The Independent. “It demonstrates their slow, methodical bite and hold strategy is in fact working and has the chance to hammer the second line of Russian defences.” “The second is political,” he continued. “It is also a response to critics in the West who suggested it is time for Ukraine to negotiate because it wasn’t going to make any move. “And thirdly, in terms of the Russians. I think they had started to get a little bit complacent as autumnal rains got closer. I think they thought they had pulled the defence off. “It will come as a shock, but we have seen on the whole the Russians are quite effective in the defence. So I think they’ll be doing what they can to shore up that second line.” Brig Gen Oleksandr Tarnavisky, who leads Ukraine’s southern offensive, claimed Russian troops had devoted 60 per cent of their time to its first defence, and only 20 per cent each into its second and third. He claimed Russia would soon run out of its “best” soldiers, giving Ukraine an advantage to attack “more and faster”. However, Chatham House consulting fellow Keir Giles, who researches Russian security, said there was no sign of “imminent collapse” among Russian forces despite Kyiv’s latest breakthrough. He told The Independent: “There are optimistic noises from Ukraine about whether the offensive might progress a little faster now because they have broken through the first and strongest Russian defensive line. “But that of course does not mean that things are going to collapse imminently on the Russian side, as some have suggested. “The resilience of Russia and its forces remains imponderable. There is no sign of imminent collapse of the Russian economy or society.” Mr Giles added there were signs Russia feels it is in a position to “drag the conflict out” and wait for the Western coalition to collapse. Ukrainian deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar said their forces had retaken about 1.16 square miles of land in the past week around the eastern city of Bakhmut, which was captured by Russian troops in May after months of heavy fighting. Moscow has continued to carry out drone attacks on Ukrainian targets including port infrastructure. Last night, 32 Russian kamikaze drones struck the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, damaging civilian and industrial buildings. At least 23 of the Iranian-made Shahed drones were shot down by the Ukrainian military, the country’s Air Force said. Soon after, Ukraine’s defence spokesman claimed some of the drones exploded on Romanian territory. Romania’s Ministry of Defence said it “firmly” denied the claim but reiterated its support for Ukraine and said Russian attacks on the country break “all international humanitarian rules”. General Tarnavisky told the Guardian: “When we started the counter-offensive we spent more time than we expected on de-mining the territories. “Unfortunately, the evacuation of the wounded was difficult for us. And this also complicated our advance. “In my opinion, the Russians believed the Ukrainians would not get through this line of defence. They had been preparing for over one year. They did everything to make sure that this area was prepared well.” On Sunday, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had decided to dismiss Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov from his post and would ask parliament this week to replace him with Rustem Umerov, head of Ukraine‘s main privatisation fund. The announcement, made in his nightly video address to the nation, sets the stage for the biggest shakeup of Ukraine‘s defence establishment during the war launched by Russia in February 2022. Read More Ukraine-Russia war – live: Putin’s forces pushed back in the south as Moscow launches kamikaze drone attack Zelensky needed to sack his defence minister – but it goes beyond just corruption scandals Ukraine's defense minister resigns following Zelenskyy's announcement of his replacement The Body in the Woods | An Independent TV Original Documentary The harrowing discovery at centre of The Independent’s new documentary

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Dustin Poirier has backed Conor McGregor to stop Michael Chandler inside two rounds, provided that the Irishman is ‘100 percent dedicated and focused’. McGregor and Chandler, both of whom have fought Poirier before, are set to square off later this year, though no date, location or weight class has been confirmed for the UFC bout. Poirier suffered a TKO loss to McGregor in 2014, but the American exacted his revenge in January 2021 with a knockout win, before their trilogy fight six months later ended with McGregor suffering a broken leg. That contest went down as a TKO victory for Poirier, who submitted Chandler in each man’s most recent fight, in November 2022. Poirier discussed McGregor vs Chandler on The MMA Hour this week, saying: “I think that if Conor comes back anything like he was, with his timing and rhythm, with the injury that he had and this long of a lay-off – and we’re not getting any younger either... if he comes back similar to who he was before he left, I think he stops Michael Chandler. “If Conor is who he was before the injury and stuff, I think two rounds; I think the fight’s over in two rounds. “If anybody can [dial back the clock], I think it would be [McGregor]. If he’s 100 percent dedicated and focused, and [he can] put the blinders on and really go at this with all of himself, I think he can. But we’ll see, man. That’s what makes it so interesting.” McGregor’s 2014 victory over Poirier was a key moment on the Irishman’s journey to winning the UFC featherweight title, which he secured in 2015. A year later, McGregor claimed the lightweight belt to become the first dual-weight champion in UFC history. Meanwhile, Poirier is a former interim lightweight champion who has twice failed to win the undisputed belt. Compatriot Chandler is a former three-time Bellator lightweight champion, who has also unsuccessfully challenged for the UFC lightweight title. McGregor’s back-to-back bouts with Poirier in 2021 feature heavily in McGregor Forever, the second documentary covering the 34-year-old’s career. The four-part series was released on Netflix this month, and you can read The Independent’s review here. Poirier is due to return to the ring in July, taking on Justin Gaethje in the main event of UFC 291. The vacant ‘Baddest Motherf*****’ title will be on the line in the all-American clash, which is a rematch of a 2018 bout won by Poirier. Poirier stopped Gaethje, a fellow former interim lightweight champion, in the fourth round. Click here to subscribe to The Independent’s Sport YouTube channel for all the latest sports videos. Read More McGregor Forever: The problem with the new Conor McGregor documentary Eddie Hearn and Conor McGregor had ‘friendly row’ after KO of Irish boxer Gary Cully Joe Rogan is right: Tyson Fury has ‘no chance in hell’ against Jon Jones The night Conor McGregor became ‘Mystic Mac’ Eddie Hearn and Conor McGregor had 'friendly row' after KO of Irish boxer Conor McGregor reveals how he scored Katie Taylor fight from ringside

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