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Argentina's national primary election Sunday won’t just help determine which candidates will be running in the country's October presidential vote, but could impact the economy even before then. A strong showing by the opposition coalition would be cheered by markets in an election that will also test the national appeal of an eccentric right-wing anti-establishment candidate who is an admirer of former President Donald Trump. The primary is seen as a thermometer of voter preference ahead of the Oct. 6 election, which is expected to shift Argentina to the right with the current left-leaning government bottoming out in the polls amid rising poverty, a rapidly depreciating currency and galloping annual inflation that tops 100%. Sunday’s primary officially serves two purposes: determine the candidates that will run in the October election and weed out any candidates who don’t receive at least 1.5% of the vote. But it also serves as a massive, nationwide opinion poll in a country where pre-election polls have been notoriously wrong in the past. The primary can have an economic impact. Four years ago, an unexpectedly strong showing by now-President Alberto Fernández led to a sharp depreciation of the currency as markets saw the primary results indicating that business-friendly President Mauricio Macri was on his way out. The local currency, the Argentine peso, has seen its value plunge in parallel markets ahead of Sunday’s vote. Stringent capital controls mean that access to the official foreign exchange market is extremely limited, so parallel rates have flourished. Economists will be watching to see signs that the main center-right opposition could win the presidential election outright and avoid a second round runoff in November. “There is enthusiasm, especially outside of Argentina, about a profound regime change, but without going to the opposite extreme,” said Mariano Machado, principal analyst for the Americas at Verisk Maplecroft, a global risk intelligence firm. The wildcard of the race is upstart populist candidate Javier Milei, who has gained popularity thanks to his angry screeds against the ruling class and has found followers among those who are tired of politics as usual. His unorthodox proposals that include dollarizing the economy and getting rid of the Central Bank have found particular backing among the young. “We’re fed up with the status quo, with the same old thing, with the same last names that are on the ballot, we want to change things up a bit, and give an opportunity to someone who nobody knows if he will do well, but we’re going to give him a chance,” Efraín Viveros, a 20-year-old nursing student said Monday at Milei’s closing campaign rally in Buenos Aires. A strong showing for the main center-right coalition could buoy the market, but a stronger-than-expected showing for Milei would likely send the local currency, the peso, tumbling and cause general disarray in the markets due to uncertainty over his policies. The main presidential contenders all represent a rightward shift away from Fernández, who is not seeking reelection and has been largely absent from the campaign. Also largely absent has been his vice president, Cristina Fernández, who was the country’s president from 2007 to 2015. In the currently ruling coalition, Union for the Homeland, there is little doubt that Economy Minister Sergio Massa, a market-friendly politician, will receive the nomination although he is facing a challenge from a leftist candidate, Juan Grabois. A key contest Sunday will play out in the center-right United for Change opposition coalition with Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta facing off against former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich to determine who will be its candidate. Pollsters say the winner of this race will have a strong chance of becoming president. Regardless of who comes out on top, analysts will be watching closely whether a strong showing by the opposition could suggest an outright victory in October without a runoff. “While we expect a volatile political transition given macroeconomic woes, the (primaries) outcome could improve market sentiment, supported by a likely policy shift next year,” said the Institute of International Finance, a Washington-based association of the financial services industry, in a recent report. Milei was the only major candidate who held his final campaign rally. Other called off what were supposed to be their final events before the vote following the killing of an 11-year-old girl during a snatch-and-grab robbery Wednesday. The death of Morena Domínguez in an attack by two motorcycle-riding thieves in the Buenos Aires province district of Lanús, left the country reeling and put crime at the forefront of a campaign that had been dominated by economic issues. Also likely to impact the final days before the vote was the Thursday death of a leftist political activist, who suffered a heart attack while being detained by police during a protest in downtown Buenos Aires. Besides presidential voting in October, about half of Argentina’s lower house of Congress and one-third of the Senate will be up for grabs. Voting is mandatory in Argentina but the fine for failing to cast a ballot is largely symbolic. Recent national elections have seen a participation rate of around 70%. ——— Associated Press journalists Débora Rey and Almudena Calatrava contributed to this report. Read More Ukraine war’s heaviest fight rages in east - follow live Charity boss speaks out over ‘traumatic’ encounter with royal aide They lost everything in the Paradise fire. 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George Russell believes this season has been his best ever in terms of performance as he refused to dwell on his last-lap crash in Singapore. Russell put his Mercedes into the barriers as he chased down Lando Norris and race winner Carlos Sainz on the draining street circuit. The 25-year-old was visibly emotional afterwards following a strong weekend where he qualified second and held the edge over his team-mate Lewis Hamilton but is keen to move on quickly. “In terms of pure performance I feel that this has been my best season ever,” Russell said ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix. “But I reckon there is over 60 points that we have lost this season for a number of different reasons. “I have got an objective this year to secure P2 in the constructors’ championship for the team. It was quite clear this year from the beginning that we were not going to be fighting for a championship and I don’t know if that’s had an impact on my mentality or not. “There is a reason for all mistakes and that is just pushing to the limit and in some instances pushing over the limit to try and achieve what is possible. I think when I look at my championship-winning years in junior formulas I was the driver who kept on getting results, it’s the long game. “I can assure you once we are in a position again to win a championship I will be back to the ways that I know how to win a championship.” Russell has no regrets over pushing to try and claim the victory over the ailing Sainz and Norris. “If I knew it was the last lap and I took it easy and Lewis overtook me I would equally be kicking myself,” Russell added. “We are on to the next one and it is behind us, in life you can let these setbacks dwell on you. You can overthink and let it consume you but ultimately that brings nothing. You have to have that moment when it knocks you down. “Shov (Mercedes’ chief race engineer Andrew Shovlin) called me Sunday evening and said ‘the only reason we were in that position to fight for a win was because of how incredibly you’d driven all weekend’. I'm not going to let a mistake of 2cm cloud my whole weekend George Russell “He said ‘you gave us that feeling of what it is like to fight for victory again so take that away from the weekend’. “I take the positives, really pleased with the overall performance. I’m not going to let a mistake of 2cm cloud my whole weekend.” Norris clipped the barriers just ahead of Russell but survived the impact and the Mercedes driver feels it played a part. “When Lando hit the wall, the thought process is so quick in your brain because I saw him hit the wall and I thought ‘Oh my God he hit the wall’ and then I hit the wall,” Russell added. “Either the distraction of him clipping the wall was a factor or I was following his tracks or it was just a silly mistake but it seems a bit too much of a coincidence.” Mercedes’ strong pace in Singapore may be hard to replicate around the high-speed corners at Suzuka – where Russell believes McLaren are best placed to challenge Red Bull. But Hamilton is excited to return to the Japanese circuit. “I don’t anticipate us having the performance we had in Singapore. We are continuing to try and push the envelope that we have,” Hamilton said. “It (Suzuka) is one of the favourites for all the drivers. It is that historic circuit and an incredible track to drive on. It is one of the greatest layouts that we get to experience in the calendar.” Read More Charity boss speaks out over ‘traumatic’ encounter with royal aide Ukraine war’s heaviest fight rages in east - follow live Lance Stroll to sit out Singapore Grand Prix after huge crash in qualifying ‘You can forget about that’ – Max Verstappen rules out another win in Singapore Lance Stroll crashes into barrier at 110mph in Singapore Grand Prix qualifying

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