The second half of the MLB season gets underway on Friday with the Rangers looking to build on its AL West lead against the Cleveland Guardians, who is trying to play itself into AL Central contention.
The Rangers will send out Jon Gray, who has had a strong season for the team, but his underlying metrics show some cause for concern moving forward. Can the Guardians lineup take advantage of Gray? The team will have one of its best pitchers on the bump in Aaron Civale in hopes of jumpstarting a strong second half of the season.
Here are the odds for Guardians vs. Rangers on Friday night.
Guardians vs. Rangers odds, run line and total
Guardians vs. Rangers prediction and pick
Gray has been in from for most of this season, but I'm concerned as we head into the later stages of the season. While he has a 3.29 ERA, it's supported by a 4.26 xERA with diminishing velocity. Gray's strikeout numbers are way down this season, punching out about seven batters per nine innings, down from nearly double digits the prior two seasons.
The Guardians don't hit all that well, bottom five in batting average, but the team is disciplined at the plate, posting the second lowest strikeout rate in the big leagues. With the ability to put the ball in play, I believe Cleveland can put pressure on Texas' starter and league average bullpen.
Cleveland will counter Gray with Civale, who has the capability to slow down the elite bats of the Rangers. Civale has a sub-seven percent home run to fly ball rate, generating soft contact and keeping runners out of scoring position.
Gray is due for regression down the stretch, I'll take a stab at Civale to limit the damage and the Guardians to show up on offense to pull out an upset win.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
