Hedge funds turned the most bullish on the Australian dollar than they’ve been at any point this year, just before concerns over a slowing Chinese economy dragged the currency to a nine-month low.
The Aussie fell as much as 0.6% to 64.57 US cents, the weakest since November as China’s worsening property slump raised concern of a further slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. That may bode ill for leveraged funds whose positioning in the Aussie swung to a net-long of 17,432 contracts in the week ended Aug. 8 from a net short in the previous week, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Disappointing growth in China, the world’s biggest commodities importer, and a widening rate differential with the US has dragged the Aussie to near the bottom of the Group-of-10 currency performance rankings this month. The Aussie is likely to remain under pressure with key Australian jobs and Chinese industrial output as well as retail sales data due this week, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
“AUD/USD can be sensitive to any misses on the wages and labor force data now the Reserve Bank of Australia is at or close to the end of their tightening cycle,” Kristina Clifton and Carol Kong, strategists at CBA, wrote in a note. “Weak Chinese data this week can be another reminder of the soft outlook and weigh on AUD/USD.”
Read More: Sliding Aussie Seen Stoking Prices as Shock-Absorber Fades
--With assistance from Garfield Reynolds.
(Updates with Aussie move in first two paragraphs.)
Author: Matthew Burgess and Michael G. Wilson
