Hong Kong’s economy is expected to grow faster than previously forecast this year as consumer spending rebounds, while growth in rival financial hub Singapore is likely to slow as global demand weakens.
The latest Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted June 1-7, shows growth in Hong Kong will come in at 4.6% in 2023, up from a previous estimate of 3.4%. Singapore’s gross domestic product is projected to expand 1.4%, down by half a percentage point, according to the survey.
“Hong Kong’s economy continues to see a consumption-driven rebound supported by tourism, boosting its short-term cyclical prospects,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis SA. Still, there are risks to the outlook from a slowdown in the global economy and rising interest rates, he said.
Economists raised their second-quarter growth forecasts by 1.7 percentage points to 3.3% in the latest survey. The economy is then expected to expand 6.7% in the third quarter and 7.1% in the final three months of the year.
In Singapore, it’s possible the economy may enter a technical recession in the first half of 2023, largely driven by the weakness in manufacturing, according to Alvin Liew, a senior economist at United Overseas Bank. A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of quarter-on-quarter contraction in gross domestic product.
Forecasts for headline consumer inflation for Singapore were raised through to next year, with economists now predicting 5% for the full year, up from 4.7% previously, and 3.1% for 2024, compared with 2.8% in the previous survey. Hong Kong’s inflation expectations were unchanged in the survey, at 2.4% and 2.3% for this year and next, respectively.
