The St. Louis Cardinals are expected to be one of baseball's busiest teams this coming winter. After a dreadful 2023 season, fans can't wait to focus on what could be a much better team in 2024.
It's going to start with the starting rotation, one that only has two starters under contract for 2024 and 2025. Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz fill out the bottom two spots in St. Louis' rotation, but the top three spots need to be filled.
Here is what the ideal 2024 rotation should look like for the Cardinals:
5. Steven Matz
Matz got off to a very rough start this season. After starting off 0-6 with a 5.72 ERA, the left-hander was moved to the bullpen, where he seemed to figure things out.
Upon his return to the rotation, he enjoyed a solid stretch, one in which he was the Cardinals' most reliable starter. He finished the season 4-7 with a 3.86 ERA, but after a solid start against the Kansas City Royals on August 12, his season came to an end due to an oblique injury.
Staying healthy will be the key for Matz as he enters the final two years of his contract with the Cardinals.
4. Miles Mikolas
Mikolas was the Cardinals most consistent starter in 2022. However, the 35-year-old struggled in 2023, posting a 4.78 ERA in 35 starts.
Earlier this spring, he joined his Cardinals teammates in Adam Wainwright, Nolan Arenado, and Paul Goldschmidt on Team USA for the World Baseball Classic.
He drew the Opening Day start for St. Louis but obviously was not himself. St. Louis will need him to bounce back and return to his 2022 form if they want to build a rotation that can compete with the best teams in the National League.
Prior to being named the Opening Day starter, Mikolas was given a two-year contract extension, which will have him in a Cardinals uniform through the 2025 season. As of now, that is looking like a mistake, and Cardinals fans have voiced their displeasure over the team not giving Jordan Montgomery that extension instead.
But Mikolas can prove the extension was worthwhile if he can remain healthy and pitch the way he did last season, when he was the team's most reliable starting pitcher.
He won 12 games in 2022 and had an ERA of 3.29 in 33 appearances, 32 of which were starts.
3. Shane Bieber
Bieber is likely to become available this offseason after the Cleveland Guardians took several steps back in 2023.
Cleveland followed up a 92-win campaign in 2022 with just 76 wins this year. As a result, they fell short of the postseason.
The veteran right-hander and former Cy Young is in the final year of his contract, and the Guardians likely will not be able to keep him beyond this season. So, a trade could be had.
The Cardinals would have to pay dearly to acquire Bieber, possibly parting ways with somebody like Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, or Brendan Donovan. But that is the cost of business these days.
Bieber didn't have his best season in 2023. He missed a chunk of time with a shoulder injury and posted a 3.80 ERA, which is respectable, but uncharacteristic of the former Cy Young winner. There would obviously be risks involved.
But if he can remain healthy, he could return to his ace form and give the Cardinals a true ace, something that St. Louis really needs two of as they restructure their rotation for 2024 and attempt to bounce back into contention after finishing below the .500 mark in 2023.
2. Aaron Nola
Nola will be one of the top free-agent pitchers available this winter. He had a less-than-stellar 2023 season, winning 12 games but posting a 4.46 ERA.
That is something that the Cardinals are going to want to be mindful of before potentially signing Nola. However, he put together some solid numbers in the postseason. The 30-year-old went 3-1 in four starts with a 2.35 ERA.
The Cardinals would benefit from having somebody who has a track record of pitching well in the postseason. They've been unable to advance far due to their lack of frontline starters.
But with Nola on their roster, they could increase their chances of making a deep October run once again, something they haven't done since reaching the NLCS in 2019.
The Cardinals have also not reached the World Series since 2013, much less won a title since 2011. Fans in St. Louis are craving October success, and the front office would be sending the right message to their fanbase by targeting somebody like Nola to fill the void in their starting rotation.
Nola has had much success against the Cardinals, including a gem in Game 2 of last year's Wild Card Series to send the Birds home for the winter.
1. Sonny Gray
Like Nola, Gray is a pitcher who the Cardinals plan to pursue this coming winter.
Gray will be 34 years old next year, and as such will likely not receive a long-term deal. But he should be an affordable option for the Cardinals as they look to strengthen their rotation.
The veteran right-hander had the second-best ERA in the American League, posting a 2.79 mark. That should garner him some consideration for the Cy Young Award, though it will likely go to New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.
Still, Gray is a proven starter and somebody who profiles as a legitimate ace, which is what St. Louis needs. He pitched five scoreless innings in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Toronto Blue Jays, nailing down the series-clinching victory.
At the very least, he would give St. Louis a better chance to win games in October.
One thing that might also play into the Cardinals favor is the fact that Gray is on the record having said that money may not be the ultimate factor in deciding where he will pitch next season.
