Retail inflation in July breached the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance level for the first time in five months due to surging food costs, reinforcing the central bank’s concern over uneven monsoon rains affecting crop production.
The consumer price index rose 7.44% from a year earlier, according to government data Monday, exceeding the RBI’s inflation limit of 6%. That compares with a median forecast for a 6.5% gain in a Bloomberg survey of economists, and a revised reading of 4.87% in June.
The latest reading comes as the RBI is waging a battle against inflation, resolving to push prices to the mid-point of its 2%-6% range in a durable manner. Last week, it kept the benchmark rates and stance unchanged for a third meeting, and pledged to act should food prices spike further.
Food prices, which make up about half of the inflation basket, rose 11.51%, while fuel and electricity gained 3.67%.
The monsoons running from June to September have picked up pace after a weak start, yet the rainfall distribution remains a concern. Some rice-growing parts of the northeast and eastern regions have received far less rains, hurting crop sowing. The likely occurrence of El Nino is another worry for policymakers as it brings drier weather conditions and can slash crop yields.
Economists are also pushing back their rate cut expectations by the central bank deeper into 2024 due to the rising prices. HSBC Holdings Inc. expects the RBI to cut borrowing cost only by second quarter of next year.
